DVD Going the way of VHS

[gonzo]

--The Guardian

Katie Allen, media business correspondent The Guardian, Monday June 2 2008 Article historyFirst came mail-order rental services, now film downloads at the click of a button. DVD rental and retail stores are braced for a fresh onslaught of competition, this time in disc-less form.

The DVD is only 10 years old and yet the doom merchants are predicting it could join the likes of VHS tapes - vanishing from high-street stores and household shelves. With reports that Apple is poised to launch full-length film downloads in Britain and other companies offering their own video-on-demand services, even DVD industry insiders admit the format may eventually die out.

Yet they argue that the collectability of box sets, the convenience of re-watchable discs and the relatively slow growth of downloads mean there is still plenty of life left in the little silver discs.

The British Video Association (BVA), which last month celebrated the DVD's 10-year milestone at a gala dinner complete with metallic dress code, expects to hold more celebrations in a decade's time. Lavinia Carey, head of the industry group, says that while its research shows the growing popularity of services such as the BBC's iPlayer and movie downloads on Tiscali, consumers still prefer to own - and give as presents - physical copies.

"Lots of people are getting used to the idea of accessing their content online but there is also this collecting habit," she says. "There are so many uses for the physical disc that people won't just drop it like a hot brick.

"Particularly for TV shows, people love the boxed sets; they love to have the collection and they love to be able to watch it when they want."

The BVA concedes that after being largely flat in volume and value terms in recent years, the DVD market is unlikely to see much growth. But digital films will absorb only a fraction of home entertainment spending - about 6% by 2012.

Screen Digest, a media research firm, predicts that by 2012 digitally delivered films will make up 2.6% of total spending of about £2.2bn on full-length films.

That is after including the assumption that films will become available on iTunes in Britain later this year. The rest will consist of buying and renting Blu-ray discs and standard DVDs, it predicts. The emergence of high-definition Blu-ray discs is keeping retailers and film studios in an upbeat mood for now.

Kim Bayley, head of the Entertainment Retailers Association, said: "When it comes to movies, image quality is important to consumers, hence the boom in sales of high-definition TVs and so our view is that the most exciting new format of the moment is Blu-ray."

But retailers still have to keep an eye on downloads, she said. "It's important that the video business pays attention to the lessons learned by the music industry with the advent of digital."

Film studios argue Blu-ray will help the overall market grow as consumers seek formats that make the most of their high-definition television sets. Their line on video-on-demand is that it will not compete with DVDs, rather it is just another way to reach customers.

Other industry experts argue that major practical considerations mean that digital has a long way to go before becoming mass market. Helen Davis Jayalath, head of video at Screen Digest, says Apple's iTunes service will capture a "substantial" market share but the total online market will remain small for some years.

"Although all these digital services are generating a huge amount of column inches they are actually not generating a huge amount of revenue yet," she says. "One of the key issues that has been a problem up till now is that most online services don't come with a system for getting that content on to the television, which is where most people want to watch it.

"For them to become mass market it has got to become incredibly easy to watch the films on your television set."

Gary Morris, founder of UK-based download service iLoaded, argues that such technology is already available and that the DVD industry needs to reassess both its forecasts for DVD survival and for digital growth. He is telling investors there will be "mass, mass sales" online in just two years' time.

"In 2010 the DVD market will really notice online and really notice a decline. Five years I would take as the time when very few DVDs are being sold," he said, pointing to the emergence of "intelligent homes" with servers carrying digital files of music and films to pipe into various rooms.

"Over time, DVDs will just become one of those things that were lovely and in a couple of years' time you'll be able to download a Blu-ray two-hour film in probably 10 or 15 minutes. This is very much the dawn of that age in the same way it was with music downloads a few years back."

[tony404]

--The Guardian

Katie Allen, media business correspondent The Guardian, Monday June 2 2008 Article historyFirst came mail-order rental services, now film downloads at the click of a button. DVD rental and retail stores are braced for a fresh onslaught of competition, this time in disc-less form.

The DVD is only 10 years old and yet the doom merchants are predicting it could join the likes of VHS tapes - vanishing from high-street stores and household shelves. With reports that Apple is poised to launch full-length film downloads in Britain and other companies offering their own video-on-demand services, even DVD industry insiders admit the format may eventually die out.

Yet they argue that the collectability of box sets, the convenience of re-watchable discs and the relatively slow growth of downloads mean there is still plenty of life left in the little silver discs.

The British Video Association (BVA), which last month celebrated the DVD's 10-year milestone at a gala dinner complete with metallic dress code, expects to hold more celebrations in a decade's time. Lavinia Carey, head of the industry group, says that while its research shows the growing popularity of services such as the BBC's iPlayer and movie downloads on Tiscali, consumers still prefer to own - and give as presents - physical copies.

"Lots of people are getting used to the idea of accessing their content online but there is also this collecting habit," she says. "There are so many uses for the physical disc that people won't just drop it like a hot brick.

"Particularly for TV shows, people love the boxed sets; they love to have the collection and they love to be able to watch it when they want."

The BVA concedes that after being largely flat in volume and value terms in recent years, the DVD market is unlikely to see much growth. But digital films will absorb only a fraction of home entertainment spending - about 6% by 2012.

Screen Digest, a media research firm, predicts that by 2012 digitally delivered films will make up 2.6% of total spending of about £2.2bn on full-length films.

That is after including the assumption that films will become available on iTunes in Britain later this year. The rest will consist of buying and renting Blu-ray discs and standard DVDs, it predicts. The emergence of high-definition Blu-ray discs is keeping retailers and film studios in an upbeat mood for now.

Kim Bayley, head of the Entertainment Retailers Association, said: "When it comes to movies, image quality is important to consumers, hence the boom in sales of high-definition TVs and so our view is that the most exciting new format of the moment is Blu-ray."

But retailers still have to keep an eye on downloads, she said. "It's important that the video business pays attention to the lessons learned by the music industry with the advent of digital."

Film studios argue Blu-ray will help the overall market grow as consumers seek formats that make the most of their high-definition television sets. Their line on video-on-demand is that it will not compete with DVDs, rather it is just another way to reach customers.

Other industry experts argue that major practical considerations mean that digital has a long way to go before becoming mass market. Helen Davis Jayalath, head of video at Screen Digest, says Apple's iTunes service will capture a "substantial" market share but the total online market will remain small for some years.

"Although all these digital services are generating a huge amount of column inches they are actually not generating a huge amount of revenue yet," she says. "One of the key issues that has been a problem up till now is that most online services don't come with a system for getting that content on to the television, which is where most people want to watch it.

"For them to become mass market it has got to become incredibly easy to watch the films on your television set."

Gary Morris, founder of UK-based download service iLoaded, argues that such technology is already available and that the DVD industry needs to reassess both its forecasts for DVD survival and for digital growth. He is telling investors there will be "mass, mass sales" online in just two years' time.

"In 2010 the DVD market will really notice online and really notice a decline. Five years I would take as the time when very few DVDs are being sold," he said, pointing to the emergence of "intelligent homes" with servers carrying digital files of music and films to pipe into various rooms.

"Over time, DVDs will just become one of those things that were lovely and in a couple of years' time you'll be able to download a Blu-ray two-hour film in probably 10 or 15 minutes. This is very much the dawn of that age in the same way it was with music downloads a few years back."


Dvd's arent going anywhere for quite a while.

[Hammer]

Makes no sense to me and sounds like BS to me. I for one would never watch a full length movie on my computer. I want to sit in my living room and watch it on my HD big screen TV with surround sound. And I'm sure that's the case with the majority of people.

Steve Jobs and Bill Gates are convinced that we want to use computers to do everything and frankly, I think they're nuts. If I can order movies from Blockbuster online and have them delivered in the mail and can order 3 at a time so that I always have new movies to watch, even if I watch one a day, why the hell would I want to download them to my computer? And now with Blueray the movies look better on a HD TV than they do at the movies.

[EmporerEJ]

Yes, the digital delivery of content has been around since what, 1985, via a cable box?
And yet, I operated 4 video stores from 1985-1994, and am investing in DVD Rental Machines now.
Oh no, I feel perfectly fine about it.

[gonzo]

Which one of you guys own a video Ipod or Apple TV?

[RawAlex]

Makes no sense to me and sounds like BS to me. I for one would never watch a full length movie on my computer. I want to sit in my living room and watch it on my HD big screen TV with surround sound. And I'm sure that's the case with the majority of people.

Steve Jobs and Bill Gates are convinced that we want to use computers to do everything and frankly, I think they're nuts. If I can order movies from Blockbuster online and have them delivered in the mail and can order 3 at a time so that I always have new movies to watch, even if I watch one a day, why the hell would I want to download them to my computer? And now with Blueray the movies look better on a HD TV than they do at the movies.

Hammer, with new PCs and new TVs, you can run an HDMI connection right to the TV and watch it full screen HD just like a disc. Microsoft and Apple both has suggested different ways to get the point of a "PC next to every TV, an integrated part of any home entertainment system". It's coming, it won't be all that long, as PC prices continue to drop down to the level of a good toaster oven.

[gonzo]

Hammer, with new PCs and new TVs, you can run an HDMI connection right to the TV and watch it full screen HD just like a disc. Microsoft and Apple both has suggested different ways to get the point of a "PC next to every TV, an integrated part of any home entertainment system". It's coming, it won't be all that long, as PC prices continue to drop down to the level of a good toaster oven.

HDMI or screw a computer. Add on Apple TV with its own net connection. Free and paid content along with whatever you want to toss to your TV audio or video. Its just a matter of sync.

[EmporerEJ]

I have owned PocketPCs, all the way back to the Casio E-105.
And YES it could play windows media files in 2000.

The Ipod is a bit late coming to the party.
The ipod is nothing but marketing.....it's cool and slick, but it's all marketing.
PocketPC has been able to do all this audio/video stuff for years.

Welcome to the party, late again, Apple schmucks.

[gonzo]

I have owned PocketPCs, all the way back to the Casio E-105.
And YES it could play windows media files in 2000.

The Ipod is a bit late coming to the party.
The ipod is nothing but marketing.....it's cool and slick, but it's all marketing.
PocketPC has been able to do all this audio/video stuff for years.

Welcome to the party, late again, Apple schmucks.

How fast is the net connection on your Pocket PC?

[Hammer]

My ppc rocks. On wi-fi it's very fast and through the network it ain't too shabby either. It's faster than any iPhone I've used.

[Hammer]

Hammer, with new PCs and new TVs, you can run an HDMI connection right to the TV and watch it full screen HD just like a disc. Microsoft and Apple both has suggested different ways to get the point of a "PC next to every TV, an integrated part of any home entertainment system". It's coming, it won't be all that long, as PC prices continue to drop down to the level of a good toaster oven.
Sure, but how many people are going to do that when they can buy or rent a DVD? At this point I believe the majority of people using the Internet are still on dialup and don't want to pay broadband prices just to surf the Net so it's not just the price of a PC that matters.

It's just like the iPhone. Geeks and Mac addicts have them but most people still have and will continue to use standard old cell phones, Blackberries and ppcs. For every iPhone user I see I can count 100 that are using something else.

Eliminate us geeks and technofiles from the equation and your left with Joe Average and he ain't gonna hook his PC up to his TV. The vast majority of people I talk to every week have nothing more than a basic knowledge of computers or the Internet.

[MikeSouth]

I have had a media server on MY HDTV for a year now it even sees my dvr from comcast as a disk drive, plays 1080P flawlessly and cost less than 500 bucks

yet I had a porn valley director...one who is supposed to be very knowledgeable say that the ability to download standard definition DVD was at least a half dozen years away

so much for porners being technology leaders....this guy is a complete moron

[pam]

I still sell VHS and if I could find more, they'd sell. DVD is alive and well. I did a survey poll on one of my blogs and most said they'd never watch a porn movie on a tiny screen.

[EmporerEJ]

How fast is the net connection on your Pocket PC?

Just as fast as the one on the Iphone, since the Ipod doesn't have one. (On my current Pocket PC MDA)
Before that, HP6315.
Oh, and I've had a net connection on my Pocket PC since circa 2002? (Tmobile No-name)

[gonzo]

Just as fast as the one on the Iphone, since the Ipod doesn't have one. (On my current Pocket PC MDA)
Before that, HP6315.
Oh, and I've had a net connection on my Pocket PC since circa 2002? (Tmobile No-name)
I dont own an Iphone.

[EmporerEJ]

It's just like the iPhone. Geeks and Mac addicts have them but most people still have and will continue to use standard old cell phones, Blackberries and ppcs. For every iPhone user I see I can count 100 that are using something else.

Eliminate us geeks and technofiles from the equation and your left with Joe Average and he ain't gonna hook his PC up to his TV. The vast majority of people I talk to every week have nothing more than a basic knowledge of computers or the Internet.

AMEN!

EXACTLY on point. What's scary, is, I'm the smartest guy in the town, likely the township, and Maybe even the county, on these things.
And I'm not just being arrogant.

The average Joe gets it spoon fed to him at the bar.

[softball]

Technological overload. Somewhere along the line we fell off the fence. The simpler a machine is to operate, the more successful it will be. Menu driven anything is a pain in the ass. User friendly is a term that has fallen from favour but to me the ultimate in user friendly is a non electrified land line phone or a pop up toaster. Simple, efficient, and very rarely break.
An old Waring blender from the fifties still does the job and never breaks. Today you can go through a new one a year with lots of useless buttons. The original blenders had an on off switch. Its all you need and they last a lifetime.
Where the hell are people going to watch small screen porn? On a bus? I don't
see guys reading hard core piccie mags on the bus, so why ipod porn?
It all makes me shake my head....

[gonzo]

Technological overload. Somewhere along the line we fell off the fence. The simpler a machine is to operate, the more successful it will be. Menu driven anything is a pain in the ass. User friendly is a term that has fallen from favour but to me the ultimate in user friendly is a non electrified land line phone or a pop up toaster. Simple, efficient, and very rarely break.
An old Waring blender from the fifties still does the job and never breaks. Today you can go through a new one a year with lots of useless buttons. The original blenders had an on off switch. Its all you need and they last a lifetime.
Where the hell are people going to watch small screen porn? On a bus? I don't
see guys reading hard core piccie mags on the bus, so why ipod porn?
It all makes me shake my head....
Fuck the porn. I show you what I mean next week.

[softball]

Porn is all I know....everything else confuses me. Or as ron 12clicks, the world's foremost expert on everything once called me....only a picture taker in his defense of his good friend the Brain of Edmonton.
I guess the Wichita lineman is still on the line.

[EmporerEJ]

I dont own an Iphone.

Hell I even had Wi-fi AND Bluetooth with the HP 6315

http://www.vrinnovations.com/Boards/EJ-HP6315PPC.95small.jpg

Damn I'm a handsome fellow, and I'll do anything for a magazine story!

[softball]

That shit has got to come with a pocket protector. Fuck the Porsche, I gotta get that there rig to impress chicks.

[gonzo]

So you like to buy cool toys.

[softball]

Yeah....but I am so sick of technology. I had to have someone hook up my fucking stereo. You know hdmi will simplify your life bullshit. Now I have soooooo many cables...and they are all fucking black....that it is a nightmare. I barely use anything but straight 2 channel stereo any more. And it sounds great. Everything else is menu driven crap. And I love dvd. I will love blu ray. But dvd will always give me a watchable picture unlike vhs. And my video library is extensive and mostly dvd. I can hardly watch vhs anymore.

[EmporerEJ]

So you like to buy cool toys.

Hey, I gotta spend my millions on something, don't I?
That picture was from a magazine story about "your favorite tech product."
For me, free advertising.
Active word there......"FREE."

Point is, as I stated at first, Pocket PC had all this "new and improved tech" that Apple wants to pretend they discovered.

All they really did was put a smooth, artistic interface on it. And they did make the product sleek. But hasn't that always been the story with Mac/PC?

[EmporerEJ]

That shit has got to come with a pocket protector. Fuck the Porsche, I gotta get that there rig to impress chicks.

I don't mind being a "pocket protector" guy.
But you go ahead...you got your priorities straight.

[softball]

I don't mind being a "pocket protector" guy.
But you go ahead...you got your priorities straight.
How about pocket protectors that say, my other mini van is a vette?

[gonzo]

Hey, I gotta spend my millions on something, don't I?
That picture was from a magazine story about "your favorite tech product."
For me, free advertising.
Active word there......"FREE."

Point is, as I stated at first, Pocket PC had all this "new and improved tech" that Apple wants to pretend they discovered.

All they really did was put a smooth, artistic interface on it. And they did make the product sleek. But hasn't that always been the story with Mac/PC?
Ive always been a forward thinking person. I own both.

Its a toolbox. Got to have the right tool for the job.
Been spending way too long on video for years getting a lackluster result.

[EmporerEJ]

Ive always been a forward thinking person. I own both.

Its a toolbox. Got to have the right tool for the job.
Been spending way too long on video for years getting a lackluster result.

Couldn't agree more.
It just annoys me that arrogant Jobs pretends he "created something new." Dude is a used car salesman....nothing more.

[TheEnforcer]

The demise of DVD is GREATLY exaggerated. The simple fact is that there is a MUCH higher cost barrier for Blue Ray than there was for VHS. You have to upgrade BOTH your player and your TV to truly make Blue Ray a viable option AND with what they talk about in Gonzo's original post mess around with connecting the net up with your TV or go even futher in upgrading and such. FAR more people will say fuck that for a much longer period of time than they ever did with VHS when all you had to do was get a new player but NOT a TV or other things along with it.

[softball]

When all tv's are capable, which will be very soon, the rest will fall into place. But, unlike vhs, DVD'd are random acess, mulit layered, long lasting, pretty reliable, very small, and the picture quality is "good enough" for most and the sound is better than most are capable of reproducing. The advent of pvr's also throws another curve at blu ray.
It will come down in price, just like all new technology and I will love it. You will know when the time is right. It will be obvious. When and if dvd's start to be replaced by blu ray only at Blockbuster or your local video store. If you can't rent them, it is still not ready for mass production and purchase. Certainly not for porn which is ticking over nicely in dvd and download. But it will be a good mastering and storage medium.