stock marker will fall out of bed tomorrow

[Winetalk.com]

Google is down 17 points on disapointing Yahoo earnings and Intel is down about 10% in aftermarket on slower PC demand.

Fasten your seat belts
;)

[Mike AI]

No doubt, INTC is getting killed in after hours trading.

Hell, today was not a good day.

[JoesHO]

Invest in my personal mutual funds , I will give you good ROI.

[Biggy]

i sold yahoo last week at $41, im glad i did. :) i didn't anticipate them missing forecasts, but i did think the valuation was full. i woke up one day, looked at the p/e, it was selling at like 50x earnings and thought to myself "ok, its time to leave."

i picked up PLAY who makes the chips for the video ipod. apple already said they sold 14 million ipods this past quarter.

at $34, i may have to buy back in, it doesnt deserve to drop that low because it missed one quarter. Within 30 days it will be back at $37, then back to $40 sometime over the next 6-8 weeks. People tend to get really down on stocks because they miss a quarter, this same exact thing happened in June/July, Yahoo was trading at $37, dropped $4 because they missed earnings (but revenues rose). It's the corrupt wall street machine working at its best for the drive for "quarterly earnings."

Happened to Best Buy too, stock dropped 6 points because they missed a quarter, I bought it at $43, and now its at $48 (i even posted on the board when i did).

[Mike AI]

i sold yahoo last week at $41, im glad i did. :) i didn't anticipate them missing forecasts, but i did think the valuation was full. i woke up one day, looked at the p/e, it was selling at like 50x earnings and thought to myself "ok, its time to leave."

i picked up PLAY who makes the chips for the video ipod. apple already said they sold 14 million ipods this past quarter.

at $34, i may have to buy back in, it doesnt deserve to drop that low because it missed one quarter. Within 30 days it will be back at $37, then back to $40 sometime over the next 6-8 weeks. People tend to get really down on stocks because they miss a quarter, this same exact thing happened in June/July, Yahoo was trading at $37, dropped $4 because they missed earnings (but revenues rose). It's the corrupt wall street machine working at its best for the drive for "quarterly earnings."

Happened to Best Buy too, stock dropped 6 points because they missed a quarter, I bought it at $43, and now its at $48 (i even posted on the board when i did).

I think there could be some buying opportunities - some people allow emotions to get the better of them.

[Winetalk.com]

I think there could be some buying opportunities - some people allow emotions to get the better of them.


http://www.princesscameron.com/gfy/kiss.gif

[Mike AI]

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000101&sid=ahs3GS7HWykw&refer=japan

AAAaaaahhh it's begining!!! Recession!! Depression!!

[Biggy]

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000101&sid=ahs3GS7HWykw&refer=japan

AAAaaaahhh it's begining!!! Recession!! Depression!!

I'm selling off my whole portfolio tomorrow.

[Dravyk]

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000101&sid=ahs3GS7HWykw&refer=japan

AAAaaaahhh it's begining!!! Recession!! Depression!! That's it. If anyone was unsure before (was anyone???), you can't be now.

It's the beginning of the end for the Republican majority in Washington.

Next election, Dems will get back one House. The one after, Dems will get the Presidency and both Houses.

[Winetalk.com]

I blame Bush for bringing Hilary Clinton in the White house in 2008!

[grimm]

i gained 2% on intel today. sold tonight on news of a drop. will rebuy.


this is what happens when you have a chimpanzee in the white house. alsthough the climb to 1100 was nice

[Winetalk.com]

you blame INTC shortfall on Bush? That's radicle, VERY radicle!
;)


How did you manage gaining 2% on INTC yesterday when stock was losing the whole week? Are you sure your numbers are correct and you haven't meant LOST instead of "gained"

[grimm]

you blame INTC shortfall on Bush? That's radicle, VERY radicle!
;)


How did you manage gaining 2% on INTC yesterday when stock was losing the whole week? Are you sure your numbers are correct and you haven't meant LOST instead of "gained"


thats what etrade says. must have had late gains.

[grimm]

and ill blame whatever i want on that glorified monkey;)

[grimm]

and ill blame whatever i want on that glorified monkey;)


i misread... it was only .2% my qpologies. its early

[Winetalk.com]

if you bought it before 4 pm and sold after 4 pm,
it can't be gains doesn't matter of who says what and how, just IMPOSSIBILITY!

[Winetalk.com]

it's trading 22.90 NOW, down from 25.52 closing price...ouch!
I am tempted on writing 17.5 Jan 07 puts

[Biggy]

I am tempted on writing 17.5 Jan 07 puts

you can find suckers to buy that?

[Robin]

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000101&sid=ahs3GS7HWykw&refer=japan

AAAaaaahhh it's begining!!! Recession!! Depression!!

I don't think so myself. And there are some very good reasons to be bullish until 2010 - *then* it'll all go down the pan! ;)

It's all a combination of Baby Boomers and (later) Peak Oil...

http://www.wired.com/news/technology/0,70034-0.html?tw=wn_tophead_3

[Robin]

I'm selling off my whole portfolio tomorrow.

I hope you sell only the ones you have in profit. If you have any in loss I'd hang on - I think this is just a correction... I'd wait for them to come back up before selling them...

[TheEnforcer]

So... did you short a bunch of stocks Serge?

[Biggy]

So... did you short a bunch of stocks Serge?

everyone is shorting right now, im loading up more funds into my portfolio. INTC is a great buy right now, very cheap.

[Winetalk.com]

So... did you short a bunch of stocks Serge?

nope, I have NOT....after shorting GOOG last year and covering it 20 mins later for $2000 loss
(Would have been $30,000 loss if I waited 'til today) I stopped shorting
;)

[Winetalk.com]

everyone is shorting right now, im loading up more funds into my portfolio. INTC is a great buy right now, very cheap.

Aaple reporting disapointment and being down 5+ points in aftermarket, will make INTC you bought today even more cheaper.

I hate earnings season, the reality interferes with a dream, it much easier to sell the dream, being it stock or porn membership.
"Your card will never be charge" was a perfect wet dream.
:)

[Winetalk.com]

you can find suckers to buy that?

yeap...it's "insurance money" people spend.

[TheEnforcer]

nope, I have NOT....after shorting GOOG last year and covering it 20 mins later for $2000 loss
(Would have been $30,000 loss if I waited 'til today) I stopped shorting
;)

Shorting is an extremely risky business but can be EXTREMELY profitable when you do ti at the right time. Most people don't bother with it for just the reason you stated above. I know it's likely more risk than I would ever take and I'm a gambler by nature. :>))

[Biggy]

Everyone is talking about shorting these days. check out PLAY. Its down because of AAPL being down, and all the idiots and MMs playing the short game. These guys are a key component maker for the video ipod.

Now, I can see where people can't think AAPL, a company with a $70 billion dollar market cap cannot count on Ipods for growth alone, but a company with a market cap of $750 Million, can. This company is reporting earnings on the 26th, and AAPL already stated they sold 14 million ipods this past quarter. You would have to be an idiot to short PLAY, like some people are doing right now. Going to set up a nice squeeze and upward drive. Should be interesting, i'm loading up...

[Robin]

I'm with you Biggy,

I'm waiting for the bottom for INTC, EBAY, AAPL and YHOO. I'll buy a little basket of these companies within the next 2 days - they are way undervalued at the moment (just like Best Buy was recently).

Google fell $23 today - (5% ish I think) but I won't be getting back on that train. It reminds me too much of when Amazon went through the roof and then crashed down to earth. I personally think it will hit $300 before $600.

[Winetalk.com]

I think those who rely on public knowledge like PLAY earnings which EVERYBODY is aware of, will have their heads served on the platter. I am with shorts, THEY are the "smart money" in the transaction.

[Biggy]

I think those who rely on public knowledge like PLAY earnings which EVERYBODY is aware of, will have their heads served on the platter. I am with shorts, THEY are the "smart money" in the transaction.

short it :)

[Winetalk.com]

short it :)

I am VERY tempted...

Open interest in Feb 30 calls: 3,974
Open Interest in Feb 30 puts: 290

what does it tell you??????

I'll see what I can get them for 1-2 days before Jan 26th

VERY tempting, no shit!

"Buy the rumor, SELL THE NEWS"

[Biggy]

what does it tell you??????

that the price of calls will be more expensive than the puts. short it based off the fact that the crowd is usually wrong... we'll see what happens.. :) go in with the new downgrade today, matrix research (a hedge fund of all things). i wonder if they are shorting... be the smart money with them.

[Winetalk.com]

Biggy,
I like enthusiasm of new investors, they make their case so compelling and in the process they violate only one stock market commandment:
Don't get hook on your own bullshit"

best of luck to ya...but on the day of the earnings the stock will go down, and I don't care how good the earnings are, 'cuz the smart money will be selling on that day.

[Robin]

Biggy,
I like enthusiasm of new investors, they make their case so compelling and in the process they violate only one stock market commandment:
Don't get hook on your own bullshit"

best of luck to ya...but on the day of the earnings the stock will go down, and I don't care how good the earnings are, 'cuz the smart money will be selling on that day.

That's right Serge - it's what they tend to do. But... you can usually then buy in again at the bottom 3-5 days later ;)

[vdc-Loki]

I never got into the Stock market till a few weeks ago, I've been keeping a close eye on Sirius (SIRI) and I finaly decided to just say fuck it and buy some stocks, with the addition of Howard Stern, Bubba The Love Sponge, the shortage of equipment, and record signups in the last few months it seemed like a no brainer.

Now my only thought is should I pick up a handfull of shares for the compition XM (XMSR) to hedge my bets so to speak, or wait for a possible 3rd company to pop up?

-Loki-

[Robin]

should I pick up a handfull of shares for the compition XM (XMSR) to hedge my bets so to speak, or wait for a possible 3rd company to pop up?

-Loki-

Personally I would wait till you have a profit from Sirius you are satisfied with then sell and buy XM. I already bought SIRI in the fall last year and sold at the end of the year. The Howard Stern thing will be all played out soon and I think they will peak. They are the underdog. XM is 3 times larger and it has some major new announcements planned. As for a 3rd company. There isn't/won't be one. satellite radio will be Sirius and XM just like satellite TV is Dish and DirecTV (except that Rupert Murdoch now owns both of them). It would be madness for a 3rd company to try and compete - so it's almost certain not to happen.

[Biggy]

Biggy,
I like enthusiasm of new investors, they make their case so compelling and in the process they violate only one stock market commandment:
Don't get hook on your own bullshit"

best of luck to ya...but on the day of the earnings the stock will go down, and I don't care how good the earnings are, 'cuz the smart money will be selling on that day.

I see what you're saying how the discrepancy in the open interest between calls and puts is high, so it looks like a set up for the smart money...BUT

because the stock is pretty heavily shorted, don't you think all the interest in the calls is to cover their shorts if the stock goes higher... kind of like your insurance calls you wanted to write on INTC...

I agree you cannot bank on this stock based on earnings, but this is also a small and somewhat undiscovered stock, it gets very little press, not one major NY investment house covers this stock - thats where the information advantage is. As an individual investor, you can get an information advantage, and you don't need to be skeptical. With a ticker like "PLAY" and the markets they are involved with - the video ipod chips (which everyone knows just had a record quarter), the secondary display screens they are working with Microsoft on and adding to the outside of laptops (the most visible change to the laptop in years), this stock once it gains some steam can easily be marketed and touted to investors. It trades at a pretty cheap multiple and the fundamentals are there. It all makes great selling points to investors.

I'm sensing a short squeeze. I'll see how it plays out throughout the next week and see if I want to hold it on earnings day, but this is a great pick thru the long term and is looking pretty solid. Lots of stocks report great earnings and go down on earnings day, no question about it, but this is a stock to keep an eye on.

[vdc-Loki]

Personally I would wait till you have a profit from Sirius you are satisfied with then sell and buy XM. I already bought SIRI in the fall last year and sold at the end of the year. The Howard Stern thing will be all played out soon and I think they will peak. They are the underdog. XM is 3 times larger and it has some major new announcements planned. As for a 3rd company. There isn't/won't be one. satellite radio will be Sirius and XM just like satellite TV is Dish and DirecTV (except that Rupert Murdoch now owns both of them). It would be madness for a 3rd company to try and compete - so it's almost certain not to happen.

I would rather buy some XM stock now at $28.XX a share then wait months to a year when their up around $50.XX a share......

If your right about them being the leader then I would bet they would go higher in the next fiscal year, I can handle say $30.00 a share better then $50.00.

With that said, I realy think Sirius will take the lead between the two companies, With Stern onboard (Who ALMOST ended up on AM) and him having 2 channels right now, (and a 3rd and 4th in talks right now) he's scouting for more people and programming, and I think he will play a vital role there over his 5 year contract.

He already hired Bubba The Love Sponge to be on 101, and Bubba WAS on XM, now his listener bace may move over to Sirius, and more of Stern's 16 million listeners will be joining as well.

I think the hype will increase in fact, especially since the news channels, papers and radio people keep talking about what he's doing now and even renaming networks "Free Radio" which actualy brings more spotlight to the satalite radio business.

Only time will tell if either of us are right, But I see them to be both big success with Sirius being a bit ahead due to their "names" Stern, Bubba, Eminem, Jim Breuer<sic> Martha Stewert, Lil Stevie, and others.

-Loki-

[Winetalk.com]

I didn;t know about large short position, that WOULD explain the call/puts open interest discrepancy!

I see what you're saying how the discrepancy in the open interest between calls and puts is high, so it looks like a set up for the smart money...BUT

because the stock is pretty heavily shorted, don't you think all the interest in the calls is to cover their shorts if the stock goes higher... kind of like your insurance calls you wanted to write on INTC...

I agree you cannot bank on this stock based on earnings, but this is also a small and somewhat undiscovered stock, it gets very little press, not one major NY investment house covers this stock - thats where the information advantage is. As an individual investor, you can get an information advantage, and you don't need to be skeptical. With a ticker like "PLAY" and the markets they are involved with - the video ipod chips (which everyone knows just had a record quarter), the secondary display screens they are working with Microsoft on and adding to the outside of laptops (the most visible change to the laptop in years), this stock once it gains some steam can easily be marketed and touted to investors. It trades at a pretty cheap multiple and the fundamentals are there. It all makes great selling points to investors.

I'm sensing a short squeeze. I'll see how it plays out throughout the next week and see if I want to hold it on earnings day, but this is a great pick thru the long term and is looking pretty solid. Lots of stocks report great earnings and go down on earnings day, no question about it, but this is a stock to keep an eye on.

[Biggy]

I didn;t know about large short position, that WOULD explain the call/puts open interest discrepancy!

this company has been public 15 months. as i said above, not one major nyc investment house covers this stock, market cap of $750 mln, 28% shares floated are shorted, roe of 38%.

you know how i found out about this stock... i had to do a blog search and find out on my own who their chipmakers were, stumbled across PLAY in november, and following the market every day since as well as all the articles on the ipod and video ipod, never was this company mentioned once. very little articles or disclosures about this company...

[slavdogg]

i've been buying up PLAY for most of 05
started at 24$ than bought a bunch more at 19$

Also been buying up a lot of INCX (local.com) at under $6
mid year got into APPL and MO and have done well here.

I got a lot of Yhoo from mid teens, wanted to sell all right after earnings. But did not expect yhoo to miss Chrismas Quarter, that was a little unreal.

[Biggy]

i've been buying up PLAY for most of 05
started at 24$ than bought a bunch more at 19$

Also been buying up a lot of INCX (local.com) at under $6
mid year got into APPL and MO and have done well here.

I got a lot of Yhoo from mid teens, wanted to sell all right after earnings. But did not expect yhoo to miss Chrismas Quarter, that was a little unreal.

I've only been picking up PLAY since Mid-Nov where I got in at $23. Just out of curiousity, how did you come across it?

[Winetalk.com]

Biggy, INTC is getting even MORE "undervalued"
;)

[Robin]

Google fell $23 today - (5% ish I think) but I won't be getting back on that train. It reminds me too much of when Amazon went through the roof and then crashed down to earth. I personally think it will hit $300 before $600.

Wednesday 11th Jan: $475
Friday 20th Jan: $400

It's smashed down through the 20 day and 50 day SMAs and is fast heading for the 100 day SMA of $372. If it drops through that then the next support is probably the $311 of the day before their last earnings report.

[Winetalk.com]

12 minutes left and at thsi rate it can drop to -300 today
:)

[Biggy]

Biggy, INTC is getting even MORE "undervalued"
;)

are you suggesting an overall economic slowdown that we are witnessing the start of?

[Biggy]

serge, look at whats happening to option prices..

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/op?s=PLAY

insurance policy just got cheaper.

[Winetalk.com]

are you suggesting an overall economic slowdown that we are witnessing the start of?

I don't, but the bond market does,
1 year CD earn more than some 4 years CD's, inverted curve is NOT a good thing.

[Winetalk.com]

serge, look at whats happening to option prices..

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/op?s=PLAY

insurance policy just got cheaper.


yeap, call holders just got creamed on experation day, what else is new?
;)

[Biggy]

yeap, call holders just got creamed on experation day, what else is new?
;)


<--- still learning my lessons. :) didn't even pick up on that. i know all about the yield curve... definitely lots of forces working against the market right now. especially with bad earnings seemingly coming out 1 company after another...

[Winetalk.com]

<--- still learning my lessons. :) didn't even pick up on that. i know all about the yield curve... definitely lots of forces working against the market right now. especially with bad earnings seemingly coming out 1 company after another...


It's OK, as I said before, I was selling into the rallies and now sit on some cash because of it.

[slavdogg]

The New Market Bubble Theory
http://wired.com/news/technology/0,70034-0.html?tw=wn_tophead_20

interesting article here

[slavdogg]

I've only been picking up PLAY since Mid-Nov where I got in at $23. Just out of curiousity, how did you come across it?

I read about them in Forbes i believe

[Robin]

Wednesday 11th Jan: $475
Friday 20th Jan: $400

It's smashed down through the 20 day and 50 day SMAs and is fast heading for the 100 day SMA of $372. If it drops through that then the next support is probably the $311 of the day before their last earnings report.

Wednesday 1st Feb: $380

http://ichart.finance.yahoo.com/w?s=GOOG

It's climbed a bit back up to 400 and met strong resistance and is now falling again. 370 is the support level - if it drops below that I may buy back in but only 3 days after it bottoms, just to be sure. GOOG is a good stock but it's just been too high lately - at the right price it'll be very worth it.

[Winetalk.com]

was Yahoo worth $300 a share? CMGI $380 a share?
;)

[Robin]

was Yahoo worth $300 a share? CMGI $380 a share?
;)

No - most definitely not! ;)

But there's a difference here - Google have real earnings - they are a proper company making huge profits! :)

[Winetalk.com]

No - most definitely not! ;)

But there's a difference here - Google have real earnings - they are a proper company making huge profits! :)


Robin, $1.56 a share is NOT a huge profit for a $400 company.
P/E is HUGE, not the earnings

[Robin]

Yep, the P/E is way high - but that's all priced-in speculation that Google will continue to increase earnings substantially. They were up 80% again last quarter - it just wasn't enough to please the market. But that's good. It's needed a pull back. I just wish the Bears would pull it back a lot more but the Bulls are still quite behind Google. It may rise for a while before the proper correction occurs. At $320 I would buy Google - at $350 - hmmm... maybe - any higher? No.

[Winetalk.com]

Robin, best of luck.