your predictions for 2006....

[vdc-Loki]

just curious to see what you think 2006 will hold for the adult industry?

Joesho touched on this a bit in another thread but I'd like to expand it abit.

In the last 5 years since I moved from mainstream porn to online porn I've noticed a few funny trends, regarding "The chicken little syndrome" and "The Next Big Thing" both never seem to come to fruition yet every few months were subjected to it, the sheep run scared and the shepards rake in the dough.

So now we come to the end of yet another year of online porn and whats next on the horiozion?

Mobile porn, High Deff, more toons, new faces, same places etc etc etc

What do I see to be big in 06?

More surfer boards, portals, and blogs,

mobile porn maybe, I say maybe cause at least with cellphones theres already been content for it for the last 2 years but it's been dominated by the UK companies until recently. I called the PSP market a few months before it hit and I was laughed at by alot of people in the states, but now theres 3 sponsors for psp porn today and I see it getting bigger next year now that Playboy jumped on board months ago.

I see a more personal porn site in the future more interaction, more improvements on our exsisting methods, more mainstream promotions as soon as we realize that if it's ok for mainstream to use porn to make money so should we, My best example for this is the 2004 GoDaddy superbowl spot, and all the spots for Tag & Axe body spray, if the networks allow this then for the right price they HAVE to start taking our money. (Say what you want to but deep down you know i;m fucking right on this lol)

More virtual porn will hit the market, I said this last year and was laughed at, and in the last 8 months my side of the industry now has 12 more "big players" and companies like Virtual Inovations were featured on cable tv news time and time again, 06 will bring another influx of these types of products and sites and the tech continues to grow and the mainstream market also grows.

Yes there will be more people exiting, but for each one that leaves there will be 10 more starting up, but with our current over saturation those newbies will need to break new ground in order to survive.

Granted alot of this is speculation, however my personal track record has been pretty good so far, and I'm a student of history and history loves to repeate itself, mainly I feel cause we are all creatures of habit lol.

What do you think?

-Loki-

[gonzo]

Theres only one X in Mobile....

[vdc-Loki]

Somehow I knew that was coming lol

Come to think about it I probly should start figuring out how to get my toons ready for sms for next year.

-Loki-

[WebairGerard]

Bush goes down in flames! Impeachment!!!

[TheLegacy]

my feeling is that there will be more cell phone TV's that will have porn downloading on them or connected to the web.

Bush will still be in power though the evidence grows against him - democrates simply arent showing leadership in caring enough for the country to do something about this guy

we havent heard the last of 2257 or the government's attempt to shut porn down.

business will grow as will increased revenues for designers and websites with greater numbers as mainstream markets and investors try to catch a piece of the billion dollar pie adult content has to offer. So see more lawyers / wall street suits get into the action

[vdc-Loki]

speaking of more money, what do you think will happen with the outsource companies?

more or less in 06?

-Loki-

[TheLegacy]

speaking of more money, what do you think will happen with the outsource companies?

more or less in 06?

-Loki-

that is such a loaded question since there are some designers are offshore content companies that do have quality work. I will not judge north american companies who choose to use them - but I dont think that the government considers yet offshore a threat to our business. If anything was to happen it would be a by-product of something else like the movie industry.

Lets face it, the government will never admit that the adult industry is a above board market - we are still depicted on the same level as pimps and drug dealers. to warrant XXX or any recognition that shows us as a legitimate business worthy of laws in our favor would offend many politicians and religious groups. Though many prosper off of us, not too mention large companies who invest in adult sites also donate huge amounts to political parties - those same politicians havent figured that their hands are 'dirty' already.

Outsourcing I see will have good growth especially with the judgement just handed down on 2257 http://www.avn.com/index.php?Primary_Navigation=Articles&Action=View_Article&Content_ID=252970 that eases alot of minds.. and with eased minds also means eased purse strings that will pay for more rather than less.

[vdc-Loki]

I concur, but to a point, as I was an avid designer till I came to porn, (I design my own sites still, and do a few things for other ppl but I do not advertise my skils) The reason for this is all the "outsource ppl" that popped up over the last few years,

I looked at it this way, If you have two designers, both who produce qualiry results, but one charges half the price for the same product who do you hire? business sence says pay less for same quality.

remember I'm using two ppl with the same calaber skills, not the "you'll get what you pay for adage" so with the new boom in designers popping up overseas will that start to effect the ppl here in the states more in 06?

-Loki-

[TheLegacy]

I concur, but to a point, as I was an avid designer till I came to porn, (I design my own sites still, and do a few things for other ppl but I do not advertise my skils) The reason for this is all the "outsource ppl" that popped up over the last few years,

I looked at it this way, If you have two designers, both who produce qualiry results, but one charges half the price for the same product who do you hire? business sence says pay less for same quality.

remember I'm using two ppl with the same calaber skills, not the "you'll get what you pay for adage" so with the new boom in designers popping up overseas will that start to effect the ppl here in the states more in 06?

-Loki-

well thats the "key" phrase - on the same level. With cost of living etc. designers here are finding it extremely difficult to justify offering their work and we may loose them altogether. I am not wanting to get into any pissing matches as to the crop of designers that are overseas and their comprehension, skill, wordsmith and talent vs. their american counterpart - I just hope that there is enough work going around that all can survive

[gonzo]

The cowl is on order
Absolute GonZo (http://www.gonzo.2006.html)

[Robin]

just curious to see what you think 2006 will hold for the adult industry...

I predict Oprano will be sold again ;)

[gonzo]

I predict Oprano will be sold again ;)

We already have an announcement bigger than that... but we have to all shake hands on it in Vegas before we can tell you.

[JoesHO]

I predict Oprano will be sold again ;)

but the key is how much it will appreciate in value ?

[Hell Puppy]

The thing I find interesting about prediction threads is that in adult, it's always negative. For most other companies and industries in general, you make bold predictions about exciting new things that are going to happen and what your goals are for growth, etc.

For the past few years in adult it's always been more like what kind of adversity are we going to have to fight thru this year to stay in business.

2257, acacia, 1% ccb's and other processing issues, justice department crack downs, etc.

We have the most "in demand" product on the internet, yet we seemingly plan our years around adversity for the most part.

The one prediction that I'm 100% certain on is that there'll be more tits and ass seen on the internet in 2006 than ever before. What format will be in? What medium will it be broadcast on? How will people pay for it? These are the questions we should focus on when thinking about how to go at 2006.

[vdc-Loki]

Yes HellPuppy, more tits n ass,
format? SMS, for sure

mediums? Cellphones, PSP, IPods, etc.

How They Pay? Anyway they can and through the ass ;)

oh and I think that ppi (pay per image) think might take off n in 2006

-Loki-

[Hell Puppy]

Yes HellPuppy, more tits n ass,
format? SMS, for sure

mediums? Cellphones, PSP, IPods, etc.

How They Pay? Anyway they can and through the ass ;)

oh and I think that ppi (pay per image) think might take off n in 2006

-Loki-

Mobile will grow, it may be slow though til someone invents that killer mobile application. There's still a pretty stiff learning curve there though. U.S. mobile users aren't all that sophisticated. Most use their phones for a fraction of what they are capable of. And porn will likely never be in the carrier's default deck. Playboy or similar MIGHT have a chance to get there.

The mediums you suggest are all smaller. I think we're gonna see ways to get things from the internet onto your television monitor easier.

Billing remains the achilles heal. If only a U.S. wireless carrier would release an internet API that lets a user use his phone to purchase online....

Oh, and as for pay per pic....maybe in mobile. the PPV money is in video.

[vdc-Loki]

right on with the ppp & ppv, but didn't FM put out some ppp billing unit last year that everyone 'tried' out I just figured maybe it was ahead of its time a bit.

and I deff agree as for mobile the states are behind right now and they have been, however if you can get a piece of the UK market prob solved kind of.

As for the content to TV, who just put out that a few months ago, and does anyone know how they are doing now?

-Loki-

[Mike AI]

The thing I find interesting about prediction threads is that in adult, it's always negative. For most other companies and industries in general, you make bold predictions about exciting new things that are going to happen and what your goals are for growth, etc.

For the past few years in adult it's always been more like what kind of adversity are we going to have to fight thru this year to stay in business.

2257, acacia, 1% ccb's and other processing issues, justice department crack downs, etc.

We have the most "in demand" product on the internet, yet we seemingly plan our years around adversity for the most part.

The one prediction that I'm 100% certain on is that there'll be more tits and ass seen on the internet in 2006 than ever before. What format will be in? What medium will it be broadcast on? How will people pay for it? These are the questions we should focus on when thinking about how to go at 2006.


This is an excellent post. The frustration of spending all my time putting out fires, and dealing with negative non-growth issues is one of the reasons I retired from adult.