Iraqi election result

[Rolo]

Shia list: 48%
Kurdish list: 26%
Iyad Allawi list: 14%
Others: 12%
Turnout: 58%
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/middle_east/4261035.stm

[Rolo]

Provisional results released by Iraq's election commission show that the coalition of religious Shia Muslim candidates, assembled by the Grand Ayatollah Ali Sistani, received about 48% of the vote.

The Kurdish parties took about 26%, while the list led by Mr Allawi was a distant third with nearly 14% of the vote.

The main Shia list of candidates - the United Iraqi Alliance - will be granted the most seats in the new 275-member assembly, and is expected to nominate the new prime minister.

However, the BBC's Caroline Hawley in Baghdad says the Shia parties will be disappointed as they had anticipated winning 60% of the vote.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/middle_east/4261035.stm

[Almighty Colin]

So the the shiites don't have enough votes to change the government then. From what I understand a 2/3 majority vote is required to change the government according to the Iraqi transitional law. They will need to make a deal with the Kurds.

[Rolo]

Yes, the shiites need to make a compromise with at least one other group, which is a good thing (balance of power). Maybe its karma that the political destiny of Iraq is now in the hands of Shiites and Kurds, but hopefully they will be more wise than Saddam, and create a responsible ledership. Ofcourse the Shia religious ledership and the Kurdish nationalist leadership will have their own agenda, but they have much more to loose from chaos, than from compromise.

Kurds will probably demand a high level of autonomy in a Kurdish "secular state" - prehaps even with its own "capital" and "veto power". They will probably called it something else to not piss off Turkey, but this must be the goal of the Kurds. EU could put pressure on Turkey to make them accept that the Kurds gets even more power in north Iraq (possible EU membership will come with a price).

The shiites will probably push for a more religious state, however Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani (iraqi religious leader) is more moderate than dead iranian Ayatollah Khomeini, and al-Sistani is aware that if the shiites do not find a way to balance power between the different groups in Iraq (including Sunnis), then shiites will see more death and destruction.

Sunnis will have to play their cards better... The Baath Party terror campaign is not working. US has not withdraw, and it has not trigger a civil war. The boycot of the election left Sunnis without any political influence. Maybe peaceful negotiation and dialogue is possible with the Sunni, but its something a new goverment should do, and not US military or the present goverment.

But I have mostly scandinavian genes in my body, so there are probably thousands of things, which can and will prevent the most obvious solutions and compromises from happening between the people in the middle east... ;-)))

http://www.wulffmorgenthaler.com/log/JK09122004.gif

[Almighty Colin]

Can you believe we are discussing the results of an Iraqi election?!

I don't think Sistani will end up in power. I don't even think he ran for a council position.

Stuff I read today ...

Mahdi is the odds on favorite for prime minister because he is the most acceptable to the most representatives and he is much more moderate - even said to have friends in Washington.

The Kurds have nominated Talabani already.

Adnan Pachachi, a secular Sunni leader, called the elections a good thing and said he doesn't question their legitimacy.

Saleh, a member of the Kurdish alliance said it was imperative that the new government include all of Iraq's peoples. "We cannot afford another era of conflict and turbulence."

Iraqi national security adviser Mowaffak al-Rubaie, a member of the UIA said the election was "like a national wedding." "We are heading towards formation of a national reconciliation government" .. . "We are going to spare no time in including all communities -- Sunnis, Shia, Arab and Kurds and Turkoman and Kurdo-Assyrians, Assyrians... "This is going to be one of the most inclusive and certainly the most representative government in the history of Iraq."

[Nickatilynx]

So have they established who will be the Government in the forthcoming civil war and who will be the rebels?


:)

[grimm]

meanwhile, back at the ranch.. the little publicized Saudi Elections drew 100K voters, excluding women.

its a long hard road.

[Almighty Colin]

Originally posted by grimm@Feb 13 2005, 07:46 PM
meanwhile, back at the ranch.. the little publicized Saudi Elections drew 100K voters, excluding women.

its a long hard road.
In 200 years they will release a coin with Susan B Allawi on it.

[Almighty Colin]

Originally posted by Nickatilynx@Feb 13 2005, 07:14 PM
So have they established who will be the Government in the forthcoming civil war and who will be the rebels?


:)
Do you think there will be a Civil War?

[grimm]

Originally posted by Almighty Colin+Feb 13 2005, 04:56 PM--></div><table border='0' align='center' width='95%' cellpadding='3' cellspacing='1'><tr><td>QUOTE (Almighty Colin @ Feb 13 2005, 04:56 PM)</td></tr><tr><td id='QUOTE'> <!--QuoteBegin-grimm@Feb 13 2005, 07:46 PM
meanwhile, back at the ranch.. the little publicized Saudi Elections drew 100K voters, excluding women.

its a long hard road.
In 200 years they will release a coin with Susan B Allawi on it. [/b][/quote]
lmao

[grimm]

Originally posted by Almighty Colin+Feb 13 2005, 04:56 PM--></div><table border='0' align='center' width='95%' cellpadding='3' cellspacing='1'><tr><td>QUOTE (Almighty Colin @ Feb 13 2005, 04:56 PM)</td></tr><tr><td id='QUOTE'> <!--QuoteBegin-Nickatilynx@Feb 13 2005, 07:14 PM
So have they established who will be the Government in the forthcoming civil war and who will be the rebels?


:)
Do you think there will be a Civil War? [/b][/quote]
they are already fitting costumes for a reenactment. Next up, the Iraqi Renaissance Fair... gassings and beheadings and hummus, oh my.


Hey when you move to where you are moving to;).... if you are there long enough you definitely need to check out the ohio renaissance festival. its a good time.

[Nickatilynx]

Originally posted by Almighty Colin+Feb 13 2005, 04:56 PM--></div><table border='0' align='center' width='95%' cellpadding='3' cellspacing='1'><tr><td>QUOTE (Almighty Colin @ Feb 13 2005, 04:56 PM)</td></tr><tr><td id='QUOTE'> <!--QuoteBegin-Nickatilynx@Feb 13 2005, 07:14 PM
So have they established who will be the Government in the forthcoming civil war and who will be the rebels?


:)
Do you think there will be a Civil War? [/b][/quote]
I think its a forgone conclusion.

[Rolo]

Originally posted by Nickatilynx+Feb 13 2005, 09:32 PM--></div><table border='0' align='center' width='95%' cellpadding='3' cellspacing='1'><tr><td>QUOTE (Nickatilynx @ Feb 13 2005, 09:32 PM)</td></tr><tr><td id='QUOTE'> Originally posted by Almighty Colin@Feb 13 2005, 04:56 PM
<!--QuoteBegin-Nickatilynx@Feb 13 2005, 07:14 PM
So have they established who will be the Government in the forthcoming civil war and who will be the rebels?


:)
Do you think there will be a Civil War?
I think its a forgone conclusion. [/b][/quote]
The terrorists have been trying to create chaos for 1½ year, and still people in Iraq want peace/stability, and not some endless civil war. There have been lots of chances for all sides to escalate chaos, but it seams that the presents of the coalition forces have stopped the few large scale attempts (ex. the uprising of Shiite cleric Muqtada al-Sadr).

Ofcourse if there is a premature withdrawal of coalition forces from Iraq, then it would change the picture. But as long as there are coalition forces on the ground, then I can not see any large scale build up to fight in a civil war.

[grimm]

final polling numbers


Leading parties in Iraq voteHere is a list of the political alliances receiving the most votes in Iraq's Jan. 30 national elections:
The United Iraqi Alliance (Shiite alliance backed by Shiite Muslim clergy): 4,075,295

The Kurdistan Alliance (coalition of two main Kurdish factions): 2,175,551

The Iraqi List (headed by interim Prime Minister Ayad Allawi): 1,168,943

Iraqis (headed by interim Iraqi President Ghazi al-Yawer): 150,680

The Turkomen Iraqi Front (represents the countries ethnic Turks): 93,480

National Independent Elites and Cadres Party: 69,938

The Communist Party: 69,920

The Islamic Kurdish Society: 60,592

The Islamic Labor Movement in Iraq: 43,205

The National Democratic Alliance: 36,795

National Rafidain List (Assyrian Christians): 36,255

The Reconciliation and Liberation Entity: 30,796

Iraqi Islamic Party (main Sunni group headed by Mohsen Abdel-Hamid): 21,342

Assembly of Independent Democrats (headed by Sunni elder statesman Adnan Pachachi): 12,728

National Democratic Party (headed by Naseer Kamel al-Chaderchi, Sunni lawyer and member of the former Iraqi Governing Council): 1,603

Total votes: 8,550,571
Invalid votes: 94,305

Source: Iraq's election commission.

[grimm]

More


Iraq's Shias in landmark poll victory
Conciliatory promise to share power
Rory Carroll in Baghdad
Monday February 14, 2005

Guardian
Iraq's Shia Muslims sealed their historic political ascendancy last night when they won just under half of the votes in the country's landmark multi-party elections, giving the long-oppressed majority its first taste of power in decades.
Final results from the January 30 ballot released yesterday showed the Shias won more than 4 million votes, or about 48% of those cast.
Though they fell short of achieving a parliamentary majority, and will have to bring minorities into any new government, a coalition backed by Grand Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani, Iraq's leading cleric, will fill almost half the 275-seat national assembly and almost certainly claim the premiership and leading cabinet posts.
The Iraqi Electoral Commission said just over 8.5 million of the 14 million registered to vote did so, a turnout of 58%.
A Kurdish alliance came second with 2.2 million votes, or 26%, and a ticket headed by the outgoing prime minister, Ayad Allawi, came third with 1.2 million, or 14%.
But in stark contrast to hefty ballot boxes from the Kurdish north and Shia south, those from Arab Sunni areas were light and largely empty, risking the marginalisation of the community. Only 13,893 people - 2% of eligible voters - turned out in Anbar province, which includes the restive towns of Falluja and Ramadi.
A minority comprising a fifth of the population, Sunnis lost their status as Iraq's ruling class when a US-led invasion toppled Saddam Hussein's Ba'athist regime in April 2003, fuelling resentment tapped by the former Ba'athists and Islamist radicals leading the insurgency.
Victorious Shias, however, promised to share power with ethnic and religious minorities.
"We have a responsibility now to work together for the sake of the people. They have made this magnificent gesture and we should all take it seri ously and make it work," said Ibrahim al-Jaafari, an outgoing vice president and candidate for prime minister.
Mouwafak al-Rubaie, another leading Shia, echoed the mood of conciliation. "Iraq and its new government can't be built by one faction or shade and it is not possible that only two or three sects participate in this government," he told the al-Arabiya network.
Western governments welcomed the result. "The Iraqi people have taken another important step on the way to a secure and democratic future," said Britain's foreign secretary, Jack Straw.
President George Bush congratulated the winners and voters. "I congratulate the Iraqi people for defying terrorist threats and setting their country on the path of democracy and freedom," he said in a statement.
The winners' rhetoric of inclusion will be tested in horsetrading for the top jobs. The assembly is expected to meet by the end of the month to choose a president and two deputies, who in turn will choose a prime minister and cabinet whose appointment must be approved by a majority in the assembly.
The assembly must also draw up a draft constitution by August, which is to be presented to Iraqis in a referendum by October, leading to a general election in December.
Ordinary Iraqis are hoping the government will restore electricity, shorten fuel queues and quell violence. A wave of bombings and shootings has claimed more than 100 lives since the polls.
Yesterday, an Iraqi translator for Italian troops and his son were shot dead in the southern city of Nassiriya, a spokesman for Italy's military said. Hassan Khiwaet Ghali, 51, and his 20-year-old son Salah were killed near their home. An Iraqi army officer was assassinated, and three US troops died when an accident tipped their vehicle into a canal.
Al-Arabiya television reported that kidnappers had abducted the head of an Iraqi Christian party and were demanding the withdrawal of US troops.
One question was to what extent Sunnis would enter the political process since most parties boycotted the election and the few which participated fared disastrously.
President Ghazi al-Yawer's party won only about 150,000 votes, less than 2%. A list headed by Sunni elder statesman Adnan Pachachi took only 12,000 votes, just 0.1%.
Privately, some mainstream Sunni leaders regret the boycott and hope to contribute to the draft constitution and prepare for the election in December.
But they face a huge task in connecting ordinary Sunnis to the new dispensation.
The other unknown is how far and how fast Kurds will seek autonomy within a federal state which many Shias and Sunnis fear will be a precursor to a push for independence.
Its electoral organisation and unity rewarded with over a quarter of the vote, the Kurdish alliance is touting its candidate Jalal Talabani to be president or prime minister.
Kurds in Kirkuk erupted in celebrations after results showed them well ahead in the provincial vote. Guardian Unlimited © Guardian Newspapers Limited 2005