Almighty Colin
10-18-2004, 07:56 AM
As of right now, the popular vote is leaning to Bush and the electorals a tie. Will be interesting to see if Republicans complain about electoral system if Bush wins popular vote and Kerry the electorals.
From Gallup::
"President Bush has moved back ahead of Sen. John Kerry in the latest CNN/USA Today/Gallup poll. Among likely voters, Bush is ahead of Kerry by a 52% to 44% margin, exactly the same as in the last Gallup Poll conducted before the presidential debates began in late September. Among registered voters, Bush has a 49% to 46% margin over Kerry. The Oct. 14-16 poll suggests that Kerry’s perceived strong performance in the presidential debates may have had only a temporary effect on the structure of the race. Republicans have again become more enthusiastic than Democrats about their votes. More generally, a high percentage of voters say this election matters more than most."
More importantly ...
"Despite the lead Bush has opened up nationally, the two candidates are essentially tied among likely voters in the 16 competitive showdown states in which the race for electoral votes is being fought. This suggests that some of Bush's current national gains may in essence be "lost" in states where the election outcome is fairly certain to be strongly for Bush or strongly for Kerry."
Interestingly ...
"These data reinforce the conclusion that debate performance per se has rarely been highly correlated with abrupt or substantial shifts in the structures of presidential races. Even in years when it was widely accepted that a candidate had a poor debate (e.g., Gerald Ford in 1976 and Ronald Reagan in 1984), the debate loser either continued to gain on his challenger (Ford) or maintained his very significant lead (Reagan)."
Does Bush deserve to be re-elected? ...
"Fifty-three percent of likely voters now say that Bush "deserves to be re-elected," up from 48% in a mid-July poll. Although this number generally moves up and down in close relationship to the basic Bush versus Kerry ballot, it is an important separate indicator of an incumbent's chances for re-election when it is above 50%."
From Gallup::
"President Bush has moved back ahead of Sen. John Kerry in the latest CNN/USA Today/Gallup poll. Among likely voters, Bush is ahead of Kerry by a 52% to 44% margin, exactly the same as in the last Gallup Poll conducted before the presidential debates began in late September. Among registered voters, Bush has a 49% to 46% margin over Kerry. The Oct. 14-16 poll suggests that Kerry’s perceived strong performance in the presidential debates may have had only a temporary effect on the structure of the race. Republicans have again become more enthusiastic than Democrats about their votes. More generally, a high percentage of voters say this election matters more than most."
More importantly ...
"Despite the lead Bush has opened up nationally, the two candidates are essentially tied among likely voters in the 16 competitive showdown states in which the race for electoral votes is being fought. This suggests that some of Bush's current national gains may in essence be "lost" in states where the election outcome is fairly certain to be strongly for Bush or strongly for Kerry."
Interestingly ...
"These data reinforce the conclusion that debate performance per se has rarely been highly correlated with abrupt or substantial shifts in the structures of presidential races. Even in years when it was widely accepted that a candidate had a poor debate (e.g., Gerald Ford in 1976 and Ronald Reagan in 1984), the debate loser either continued to gain on his challenger (Ford) or maintained his very significant lead (Reagan)."
Does Bush deserve to be re-elected? ...
"Fifty-three percent of likely voters now say that Bush "deserves to be re-elected," up from 48% in a mid-July poll. Although this number generally moves up and down in close relationship to the basic Bush versus Kerry ballot, it is an important separate indicator of an incumbent's chances for re-election when it is above 50%."