Oil nears $50, heading for $60?

[RawAlex]

http://money.cnn.com/2004/09/27/markets/oi...dex.htm?cnn=yes (http://money.cnn.com/2004/09/27/markets/oil/index.htm?cnn=yes)

It is totally unthinkable before the was in Iraq that we would be looking at a $60 barrel of oil, but it looks entirely possible.

Will Kerry pick up on this?

Alex

[Almighty Colin]

Originally posted by RawAlex@Sep 27 2004, 09:48 AM
Will Kerry pick up on this?
That's a good question. The downside of that angle is that prices at the pump are quite a bit lower than they were when oil was 42$/barrel. 20 cents at my local station, for example.

So far the Kerry campaign's highlight has been "We have better hair". Two months ago I was really leaning toward Kerry but seeing how weak Kerry's campaign is gives me no confidence in him. Kerry didn't convince anyone to vote for him at the convention. Bush did.

I'm back to even. No vote for me. For sure. I'm done. Neither candidate makes me want to vote for him.

Kerry's last chance to impress is the debates and I think Bush will do better than most think. Bush is not Kerry's intellectual equal but he does have a better sense of humor and is easier for most to relate to I think. Bush is going to score points with the "flip/flop" thing. I bet he uses it at least three times in the first debate.

The key states are toss-ups. Thus so is the election.

[RawAlex]

Colin, local prices have much more to do with refinery activity and stock, rather than the actual price of a barrel of oil. For each barrel you get about 20 gallons of gas, plus another 24 gallons of "other petrolium products"... so call it 42% flow through on the price increases, divided by 20.

a $40 barrel @ 42% of price to gas/ 20 gallons = about 85 cents
a $60 barrel @ 42% of price to gas / 20 gallons = $1.26.
and amazingly:

So all other things being equal, the price increase at the pumps should only be about 40 cents per gallon. However, as many government bodies charge tax as a percentage of price, you will see a larger increase than that. If all other things remain the same, $40 gas is about $1.75 per gallon, and $60 gas would be about $2.35 - not as big an increase as you might think.

Florida right now is seeing a major increase as refineries in the gulf are not able to produce as much as before, which creates a market shortage. That pushes the retail price MUCH higher than anything else.

Alex

[kath]

We've still been paying $2.10-2.25/gallon out here in SoCal - I swear our stake hikes it up as high as they can, then drops it down to about a quarter above where the hike started, with residents just happy that we didn't actually hit the $3 mark so they shut up about the $2.25 - WAY above the national average.

It's all a bullshit scam...

And re: the "Great Hair" campaign of Kerry/Edwards I have to agree... I'm seriously looking at those "Anyone But Bush - Except Kerry" bumper stickers I saw on a democratic website recently... I really see now that my uber Republican family doesn't get the idea that you can belong to a party and still not support - or want to vote for - the party candidate. I honestly think that it wouldn't matter who they put in the slot for Republican presidential candidate they would blindly vote him in. Hitler anyone? Saddam? How sad is that?

:rolleyes:

[Almighty Colin]

Originally posted by RawAlex@Sep 27 2004, 10:20 AM
Colin, local prices have much more to do with refinery activity and stock, rather than the actual price of a barrel of oil. For each barrel you get about 20 gallons of gas, plus another 24 gallons of "other petrolium products"... so call it 42% flow through on the price increases, divided by 20.

a $40 barrel @ 42% of price to gas/ 20 gallons = about 85 cents
a $60 barrel @ 42% of price to gas / 20 gallons = $1.26.
and amazingly:

So all other things being equal, the price increase at the pumps should only be about 40 cents per gallon. However, as many government bodies charge tax as a percentage of price, you will see a larger increase than that. If all other things remain the same, $40 gas is about $1.75 per gallon, and $60 gas would be about $2.35 - not as big an increase as you might think.

Florida right now is seeing a major increase as refineries in the gulf are not able to produce as much as before, which creates a market shortage. That pushes the retail price MUCH higher than anything else.

Alex
Alex, I think you misunderstand. Gas prices at my local pump are DOWN 20 cents, not up. If Kerry is going to play the gasoline price angle what does he have to work with? Prices at the pump are down 20 cents per gallon for the average American since May 21. Now, maybe they'll go back up in a few months as winter comes and the supply decreases but by then it will be too late.

Maybe I misunderstand. What is Kerry's angle NOW? What is the relevance for an election being held in about 5 weeks? Oil at the pump is down 10%.

"Oil prices have risen even though gas at the pump are 10% cheaper than they were 4 months ago, Vote for me!" ?

[JR]

Alex is campaigning.

I hope for his sake he is not kidnapped and given the choice to say 3 nice things about America or Conservatives or die.

We would all miss him.

[Almighty Colin]

Originally posted by kath@Sep 27 2004, 10:28 AM
We've still been paying $2.10-2.25/gallon out here in SoCal - I swear our stake hikes it up as high as they can, then drops it down to about a quarter above where the hike started, with residents just happy that we didn't actually hit the $3 mark so they shut up about the $2.25 - WAY above the national average.

It's all a bullshit scam...

And re: the "Great Hair" campaign of Kerry/Edwards I have to agree... I'm seriously looking at those "Anyone But Bush - Except Kerry" bumper stickers I saw on a democratic website recently... I really see now that my uber Republican family doesn't get the idea that you can belong to a party and still not support - or want to vote for - the party candidate. I honestly think that it wouldn't matter who they put in the slot for Republican presidential candidate they would blindly vote him in. Hitler anyone? Saddam? How sad is that?

:rolleyes:
Oh, come on Kath. The fact that people tend to vote for an ideology they relate to and not a candidate makes the Republican candidate Hitleresque?

Democrats are just as unlikely to vote for Bush as Republicans are for Kerry. Very nearly the same, in fact.

[Rolo]

Ironic, that it will be the voters who "flip/flop" between candiates/parties that will make the difference at the election :awinky:

Kerry is a fool, if he does not use this... not in a dollar/cent argument, but to show that the world is more unstable today than 4 years ago... However if Kerry becomes president, then I actual think the Oil price will rise, because Kerry have shown very little leadership, and thats something which the market will put into the price.

[kath]

Originally posted by Colin+Sep 27 2004, 07:33 AM--></div><table border='0' align='center' width='95%' cellpadding='3' cellspacing='1'><tr><td>QUOTE (Colin @ Sep 27 2004, 07:33 AM)</td></tr><tr><td id='QUOTE'> <!--QuoteBegin-kath@Sep 27 2004, 10:28 AM
We've still been paying $2.10-2.25/gallon out here in SoCal - I swear our stake hikes it up as high as they can, then drops it down to about a quarter above where the hike started, with residents just happy that we didn't actually hit the $3 mark so they shut up about the $2.25 - WAY above the national average.

It's all a bullshit scam...

And re: the "Great Hair" campaign of Kerry/Edwards I have to agree... I'm seriously looking at those "Anyone But Bush - Except Kerry" bumper stickers I saw on a democratic website recently... I really see now that my uber Republican family doesn't get the idea that you can belong to a party and still not support - or want to vote for - the party candidate. I honestly think that it wouldn't matter who they put in the slot for Republican presidential candidate they would blindly vote him in. Hitler anyone? Saddam? How sad is that?

:rolleyes:
Oh, come on Kath. The fact that people tend to vote for an ideology they relate to and not a candidate makes the Republican candidate Hitleresque?

Democrats are just as unlikely to vote for Bush as Republicans are for Kerry. Very nearly the same, in fact. [/b][/quote]
That wasn't my point... although I know a lot of Democrats that might argue that point. :rolleyes:

I should explain... my family - not talking about anyone else here - votes Republican EVERY SINGLE TIME. It doesn't matter if it's Dubya, Schwartzeneger, Mickey Mouse or ANYONE. Hitler & Saddam I guess were extreme examples but I know a lot of other "Party People" who are like this. Republican, Democrat - it doesn't matter. My little blurb was venting about people who just vote the party - not the issues or the candidates.

It's like a giant party bandwagon - it doesn't matter to these people WHO is on the ticket - they just blindly cast their vote with the party...

Fortunately MOST people I know aren't like that. Unfortunately my Saturday family dinners at Mom's house (which I barely survived this weekend - lol) are filled with people who ARE like that.

:angry:

I agree with you on the toss up... while I would like to see change happen in our country, I'm not convinced that Kerry is the best man for that job... I'm not thrilled with Bush - but Kerry doesn't make me feel any better.



*edited for stoopid spelling error :(

[Winetalk.com]

Alex, because of your post I am flip flopping again and now be voting for Bush...........

[RawAlex]

I actually hope Bush gets re-elected. Second term president will do all the things threatened in the first term, without fear of being voted out after. Then there will be so many more people willing to vote democrat next time out. :)

Colin, I agree, the price of gas is down - not because of the price of the barrel, but because of the issues at the refining and distribution points. I saw the same thing here, when oil made $40, out local sales all spiked to 99.9 per litre (about $3.25 per gallon) and have since backed down to about 87-89. The price of oil per se is not the largest driver of end costs, but rather speculation, stockpiles, and supply from the refinery onwards.

If the price stays up, I would suspect you will see the retail price move up as I mentioned before.

Alex

[Winetalk.com]

Originally posted by RawAlex@Sep 27 2004, 01:04 PM
I actually hope Bush gets re-elected. Second term president will do all the things threatened in the first term, without fear of being voted out after.
yes, like invading Canada and making Alex our slave....time for him to service more than just Oprano
;-)))