Crude Oil

[wig]

The first two weeks of August are shaping up to contain another high in crude oil, with August 5-6th holding the most synergy.

44.10 - 44.40 / CL is still resistance that has been a target since late 2002.

A spike up to this level should lead to a reversal lower followed by start and stop declines into November.

:ph34r:

[Rolo]

Lets hope that we will have a stable world with no major terror, or unrest in middle east countries :unsure:

For now I´m glad its summer, and that I get my warm water from the solar water heaters :)

[wig]

Originally posted by Rolo@Aug 2 2004, 09:51 AM
Lets hope that we will have a stable world with no major terror, or unrest in middle east countries :unsure:

For now I´m glad its summer, and that I get my warm water from the solar water heaters :)
wishful thinking. :P

propane. :awinky:

[Monk]

hey wig,

got any time frames around gold?

[SykkBoy]

Originally posted by Rolo@Aug 2 2004, 09:51 AM
Lets hope that we will have a stable world with no major terror, or unrest in middle east countries :unsure:

For now I´m glad its summer, and that I get my warm water from the solar water heaters :)
using natural gas here :)

[wig]

Originally posted by Monk@Aug 2 2004, 01:28 PM
hey wig,

got any time frames around gold?
Monk,

I currently have late November as the next major cycle low. As long as we do not give a monthly close above $410/GC, I am expecting a final dip to 320-360/GC.

If I am correct, this will be the next big chance to make a bunch of money in metals.

[Monk]

Originally posted by wig+Aug 2 2004, 07:17 PM--></div><table border='0' align='center' width='95%' cellpadding='3' cellspacing='1'><tr><td>QUOTE (wig @ Aug 2 2004, 07:17 PM)</td></tr><tr><td id='QUOTE'> <!--QuoteBegin-Monk@Aug 2 2004, 01:28 PM
hey wig,

got any time frames around gold?
Monk,

I currently have late November as the next major cycle low. As long as we do not give a monthly close above $410/GC, I am expecting a final dip to 320-360/GC.

If I am correct, this will be the next big chance to make a bunch of money in metals. [/b][/quote]
Thanks.. I'll keep my eyes open.

:yowsa:

[wig]

Originally posted by Monk+Aug 2 2004, 08:41 PM--></div><table border='0' align='center' width='95%' cellpadding='3' cellspacing='1'><tr><td>QUOTE (Monk @ Aug 2 2004, 08:41 PM)</td></tr><tr><td id='QUOTE'> Originally posted by wig@Aug 2 2004, 07:17 PM
<!--QuoteBegin-Monk@Aug 2 2004, 01:28 PM
hey wig,

got any time frames around gold?
Monk,

I currently have late November as the next major cycle low. As long as we do not give a monthly close above $410/GC, I am expecting a final dip to 320-360/GC.

If I am correct, this will be the next big chance to make a bunch of money in metals.
Thanks.. I'll keep my eyes open.

:yowsa: [/b][/quote]
Anytime. When you get a chance, I would be interested in hearing what precious metals vehicles you invest in or are looking at.

I will be moving a large chunck of my cash into this sector if we dip down the to the levels I mentioned.

[RawAlex]

Cheney blames Kerry!

http://news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&cid=...ney_4&printer=1 (http://news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&cid=694&u=/ap/20040803/ap_on_el_pr/cheney_4&printer=1)

Amazing how someone who isn't in power has more control over world events than the people in power.

Alex

[Rolo]

Well... if Bush had used the Kyoto agreement, and said that his planned "energy conservation" etc. was part of this, then it would sound more believable, however he did not. The energy priority of the goverment has not been a long term energy plan - it has been short sighted solutions.

I have not heard any different from Kerry - I also belive he will choose the short sighted solutions, because voters do not think 20-50 years ahead.

Maybe in 10-25 years there will be a new president with enough vision and courage to solve long term problems... (have not study time between visionary presidents, but just like the market cycles, then they also appear in politics - and I think we are at low right now - on both sides).

[RawAlex]

http://money.cnn.com/2004/08/04/markets/oi...dex.htm?cnn=yes (http://money.cnn.com/2004/08/04/markets/oil/index.htm?cnn=yes)

44.34 was the bounce point today.
43.85 closing.

During the summer months, not even in the heating season.

I can't wait to see what winter brings.

Alex

[Rolo]

Like Wig said, then oil will probably fall again - short term the world has no problem with supply vs. demand, if terror/wars etc. can be avoided. Heating season will have little impact (unless someone wanting to make some quick bucks), however thinking 5, 10, 20, 50 years ahead, then demand vs. supply will be out of balance, and this will send the oil price into serious price increase - I´m not sure what the "magic" price for oil is, which will make it just as expensive as renewable energy, however renewable energy is much more price stable when comparing where we get our oil from (the middle east) - stability is one of the things we need to have for longterm growth.

[wig]

Just an update on the analysis on Crude... Yesterday's spike to my resistance area and reversal was indicative of what I was expecting.

However, several indicators are suggesting that near term (the next couple weeks), the Oil market could consolidate before making one more spike high.

The market will have to prove itself, but I can envision a 3-6 month top being put in here.

[RawAlex]

Rolo, the "magic price" varies by area. Where I live, we have large hyrdo electric (read that renewable resource) projects. As a result, many people heat with electricity. While the costs are similar, the benefits are there.

If there was not abundant electrical power, I suspect we would heat with oil.

Alex

[RawAlex]

http://moneycentral.msn.com/content/invest/extra/P91586.asp

it keeps going... 45ish... with $50 seeming to be just around the corner.

90 day contracts are on the edge of winter... will be interesting to watch.

Alex

[Winetalk.com]

Today I started selling bonds...so did Bill Gross
;-)))

[Monk]

Here'a a precious metal stock I like a lot.

http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=cde,uu[w,a]wacayiay[d19930511,20041231][pb30][vc60][ila12,26,9][j22695885,y]&listNum=8
(you'll have to copy and paste this into another browser's address bar.... link doesn't seem to work on the board)


You can see the latest pullback has moved us down to the support line. I like to buy breakouts thru resistance... or in this case a bounce on the support lines (if the stock breaks down below the support line, I know its time to sell)... otherwise its a hold until some other type of resistance shows up on the chart.

You can see all the volume on the 2003/2004 breakout and the pullback of volume on the latest pullback... these are bullish signs.

This is a long term chart and any purchase will be a long term hold... frankly I cannot ifnd the time to daytrade lately.

[RawAlex]

Interestly, the high price of oil (especially if the long term says more than $35 a barrel) will potentially drive the US drillers to expand, and make marginal concepts (oil sands, amoungst others) into profitable businesses.

I expect to see a Bush family friend or two drilling in Alaska within a year if Bush gets re-elected.

Alex

[Monk]

Factor inflation into the price of oil and all of a sudden it does not seem so lofty.. I think their is a lot of upside to the price of oil in the coming years.

[RawAlex]

Monk, we are still nowhere near the "inflation corrected" prices from the early 70s, but we are certainly nearing the high compared to just about any other time.

Combinations of reduced production, increased demands (China's demand is way up, as personal car ownership soars!), insecurity about certain producing nations, and issues like the Russian takeover of the biggest oil company over there has got people spooked.

One flack on the radio today suggested we will see $60 by january.

What price will it be before the SUVs start taking a hit in price? I noticed GM is starting to have to give rebates to move them. It's won't be long, I suspect.

Alex

[Winetalk.com]

Alex, the problem with oil the way I see it is:
those with money don't care about oil/gasoline prices,
those without money don't have political/financial pull to push for alternative fuels.

In the days when government pays farmers not to grow,
it's a shame not to convert extra corn into fuel with unlimited supply
;-(

[RawAlex]

Serge, corn fuel is the biggest lie going.

It is a net negative fuel. You have to spend more energy to make it than you get.

http://healthandenergy.com/ethanol.htm

Sort of like pure electric cars. Everyone say "oh, they are so green"... where do you think the electricity comes from? In many cases, we are talking about COAL! The only thing green about electricity is that they aren't buring the coal in the middle of your city. Otherwise you would think it not very green at all. Don't even have to discuss the losses of putting that power over wires and shipping it.

:zoinks:

Alex

[Winetalk.com]

Alex, my proposal before UN is to use alchohol instead of ethanol.
Cheap gallon of alchohol in USA costs less than gasoline in Europe
;-)))

Give me the corn and I'll make moonshine which will burn and be cheap.

[RawAlex]

Pure booze might be a good idea... if nothing else, if you think the cops are going to stop you for drinking while driving, you cna just say "it's only gas for the car!"

Alex :lol: :lol: :lol: