Who called the "top" on oil?

[RawAlex]

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/print_stor...&siteid=myyahoo (http://www.marketwatch.com/news/print_story.asp?print=1&guid={CAAEE58B-0A3A-48EF-8EBA-24F79449E42A}&siteid=myyahoo)

$42 on futures... in the summer that is a pretty big number to work from. If the fall / early winter is cold, I could see where $50 oil is possible.

How are you guys doing playing the other side?

Alex

[Rolo]

If saudi arabia is hit with massive coordinated terror attacks, then it could easily go to $80-100... and even wores, if someone finds out that oil is not an unlimited resource, then $150-XXX.







* disclaimer - yes, I´m a pessimist looking at the oil prices, but that is probably because I want the western world to speed up the change from oil to renewable energy, and the sooner prices rise, the more time we will have to make the change... :awinky:

[wig]

Originally posted by RawAlex@Jul 19 2004, 01:54 PM
http://www.marketwatch.com/news/print_stor...&siteid=myyahoo (http://www.marketwatch.com/news/print_story.asp?print=1&guid={CAAEE58B-0A3A-48EF-8EBA-24F79449E42A}&siteid=myyahoo)

$42 on futures... in the summer that is a pretty big number to work from. If the fall / early winter is cold, I could see where $50 oil is possible.

How are you guys doing playing the other side?

Alex
I trade primarily three futures markets... equities, interest rates and metals. Because of the margin/leverage, my futures account represents about 5% of my portfolio.

I rarely if ever trade oil, but I did sell a very small position when I said it would peak. Sold 2 contracts at 42.00 and bot them back the next day at 39.90.

That's $4200 profit on a $6750 margin in 12 hours.

There's an old saying... bears make money, bulls make money and hogs get slaughtered.

When you can consistently make 50% - 600% a year in a futures trading account, I'll be interested in what you have to say.

:awinky:

[wig]

Originally posted by Rolo@Jul 19 2004, 02:32 PM
If saudi arabia is hit with massive coordinated terror attacks, then it could easily go to $80-100... and even wores, if someone finds out that oil is not an unlimited resource, then $150-XXX.







* disclaimer - yes, I´m a pessimist looking at the oil prices, but that is probably because I want the western world to speed up the change from oil to renewable energy, and the sooner prices rise, the more time we will have to make the change... :awinky:
A collapsing economy is a heavy price to pay for renewable energy, which is exactly what would happen if Oil went to $150+.

I am more than happy paying $1.68 for diesel.





Note: I am all for renewable energy, but a smooth transition is preferred to anarchy in global financial markets.

[Rolo]

Originally posted by wig@Jul 19 2004, 11:51 AM
Note: I am all for renewable energy, but a smooth transition is preferred to anarchy in global financial markets.
I very much agree with you, however our politicians are still sleeping trying to increase world economy on a limited resource. I would rather have high prices, while we still have oil, than have high prices, when oil will be less than enough to keep the world going. We can afford $100 today, but could we afford $150 when we have no jobs?

The most intelligent way to deal with the energy problem long term, is by politician showing leadership, however that is as rare today as new oil fields.

[wig]

Originally posted by Rolo+Jul 19 2004, 03:34 PM--></div><table border='0' align='center' width='95%' cellpadding='3' cellspacing='1'><tr><td>QUOTE (Rolo @ Jul 19 2004, 03:34 PM)</td></tr><tr><td id='QUOTE'> <!--QuoteBegin-wig@Jul 19 2004, 11:51 AM
Note: I am all for renewable energy, but a smooth transition is preferred to anarchy in global financial markets.
I very much agree with you, however our politicians are still sleeping trying to increase world economy on a limited resource. I would rather have high prices, while we still have oil, than have high prices, when oil will be less than enough to keep the world going. We can afford $100 today, but could we afford $150 when we have no jobs?

The most intelligent way to deal with the energy problem long term, is by politician showing leadership, however that is as rare today as new oil fields. [/b][/quote]
Rolo,

I think you are taking a very extreme position. I will agree with you that the political will to address energy is not there and will probably come a little late. However, I don't think it will be too late, but rather when economics support / demand it.

Not too mention that it is all of the worlds leaders, not just the USA. Last I heard, although other developed countries have a higher price (tax) on fuel, they are still using gasoline / diesel.

Not sure what you mean "when we have no jobs".

[Winetalk.com]

Alex, I play oil markets by buying/selling bonds.
High oil price is like a tax on economy and when oil goes up, so do my bonds.

[Rolo]

I might be very pessimistic about how the oil problem with play out, if we have not changed to renewable resources in time.

I live of the masses, when they get worried, and depressed, then they stop buying, I need the world to be a somewhat calm place, so people will think about sex, and not about survival. However if they can not do this, then I will soon be out of a job, and so will all of those who I pay my bills too, and so on.

Renewable energy is the only energy form, which will allow a market economy to always grow. However aslong as oil have a better ROI, then we will keep sucking those arab oil tities, leaving our faith in the hands of a few geologist who mostly agree that there not really so many places left on land, where we might find oil.

I do not think politicians are hearing what geologists are saying, so I will be willing to take 1-2 years of problems, which will make the world unite with a common goal to get the energy problem solved - I can not see how any of our current politicians will do this by their own will, without a major problem getting closer (we have tried the possible saudi arabia chaos situation, however still politicians sleep, so I´m thinking they need a wake up call closer to home, when they fill up their SUV, and see prices close to $5-7/gallon).

damn - I sound like a michael moore activist, but its getting really frustrating looking at the oil price going the same way as a runaway train, which no man can stop, but only try to avoid.

[wig]

Rolo, Just a buy a shitload of oil calls and get it over with already. ;-))

[Rolo]

Yes, that will probably help :groucho:

[Nickatilynx]

ahahahahaha Rolo , just read yr tagline!!!

Nice :)

[Almighty Colin]

I called it 5x!

[RawAlex]

Just a bump on this thread... $43 today, a few different places suggesting $45 to $50 by the end of the summer, almost 100% certain on $50 by year end.

how to make money on this?

Alex

[Almighty Colin]

Originally posted by RawAlex@Jul 28 2004, 02:09 PM
how to make money on this?

Alex
What do you think is going to happen from here? You can buy oil futures. I never have but call a broker and ask how to buy a NYMEX contract. I think you can get in on a min contract for about $20k. Watch your ass on the timing. You can be right on the general direction and still lose your ass. I say that from experience.

Almost 100% certain of a 15% rise? Good luck with that. You can go broke listening to analysts saying such things. If they were that sure they'd invest and not sell advice.

[wig]

Originally posted by Colin+Jul 28 2004, 02:20 PM--></div><table border='0' align='center' width='95%' cellpadding='3' cellspacing='1'><tr><td>QUOTE (Colin @ Jul 28 2004, 02:20 PM)</td></tr><tr><td id='QUOTE'> <!--QuoteBegin-RawAlex@Jul 28 2004, 02:09 PM
how to make money on this?

Alex
What do you think is going to happen from here? You can buy oil futures. I never have but call a broker and ask how to buy a NYMEX contract. I think you can get in on a min contract for about $20k. Watch your ass on the timing. You can be right on the general direction and still lose your ass. I say that from experience.

Almost 100% certain of a 15% rise? Good luck with that. You can go broke listening to analysts saying such things. If they were that sure they'd invest and not sell advice. [/b][/quote]
Margin on oil is about $3500.

But, you would be better served buying a energy weighted mutual fund.

Try to buy into the weakness, though. ;-))

[Almighty Colin]

Originally posted by wig@Jul 28 2004, 06:24 PM
Margin on oil is about $3500.
Hey, that's a pretty fast way to lose money ;-) ;-)