Almighty Colin
07-12-2004, 10:06 PM
Data, article, etc. http://gallup.com/content/?ci=12310
As can be seen, the convention bounce varies from a record-high 16-point bounce for Bill Clinton following the 1992 Democratic convention, to no increase at all in Gallup's estimation of the bounce for Democratic candidate George McGovern after the 1972 convention. (Clinton's record 1992 bounce was in part due to the fact that independent candidate Ross Perot dropped out just as the Democratic convention was ending.)
The average bounce across all conventions in these 10 elections is 6.1 points.
The candidate with the bigger bounce, of course, doesn't necessarily go on to win:
* In 2000, Democratic candidate Al Gore got a larger bounce than Republican George W. Bush did, but Bush won the election (although not the popular vote).
* In 1988, Democrat Michael Dukakis got a one-point-higher bounce than George H.W. Bush did, but Bush won.
* In 1984, Democrat Walter Mondale got a larger bounce than incumbent Ronald Reagan did, but Reagan won re-election handily.
* In 1980, Democrat Jimmy Carter got a slightly larger bounce than challenger Reagan did, but Reagan won.
* In 1964, Republican Barry Goldwater got a larger bounce than incumbent Lyndon B. Johnson did, but Johnson was way ahead in the polls and stayed that way, ultimately defeating Goldwater by an overwhelming margin.
As can be seen, the convention bounce varies from a record-high 16-point bounce for Bill Clinton following the 1992 Democratic convention, to no increase at all in Gallup's estimation of the bounce for Democratic candidate George McGovern after the 1972 convention. (Clinton's record 1992 bounce was in part due to the fact that independent candidate Ross Perot dropped out just as the Democratic convention was ending.)
The average bounce across all conventions in these 10 elections is 6.1 points.
The candidate with the bigger bounce, of course, doesn't necessarily go on to win:
* In 2000, Democratic candidate Al Gore got a larger bounce than Republican George W. Bush did, but Bush won the election (although not the popular vote).
* In 1988, Democrat Michael Dukakis got a one-point-higher bounce than George H.W. Bush did, but Bush won.
* In 1984, Democrat Walter Mondale got a larger bounce than incumbent Ronald Reagan did, but Reagan won re-election handily.
* In 1980, Democrat Jimmy Carter got a slightly larger bounce than challenger Reagan did, but Reagan won.
* In 1964, Republican Barry Goldwater got a larger bounce than incumbent Lyndon B. Johnson did, but Johnson was way ahead in the polls and stayed that way, ultimately defeating Goldwater by an overwhelming margin.