Seems like the market is going thru the roof tomor

[Winetalk.com]

wig,
I hope you ain't short alot
;-)))

[wig]

Originally posted by Serge_Oprano@Apr 22 2004, 04:18 PM
wig,
I hope you ain't short alot
;-)))
I am not short at all. I got out of all my shorts the week of March 22nd as planned.

I did not buy it there, which was a mistake but you cannot lose what you do not put in.

The April 19-20th date proved that the market is still operating in an orderly fashion.

Now that the market has confirmed this, the next date in line with the current cycle progression is the week of May 3rd.

I am anticipating this cycle period will yield a high.

Click here for the the visual (http://www.achdebit.com/images/naz.jpg)

[wig]

BTW, as we approach the first week of May, I will have price targets to watch that should coincide with the date.

This weeks' close and the action of early next week will hone these levels in, so I am going to refrain from committing to price levels yet.

Timing, however, will likely not change.

[Winetalk.com]

good!
I slowly started unloading some ETF's I bought recently, and keep buying those which keep on going down
(interest rates sensetive, income producing)

Today I got from my broker analysts recomendation dated March1 and this is what I wrote him back:


Mark,
did you see the date it was published?
March 1, 2004

whoever bought on their recommendations basically bought on the top!!!

(as you recall I was SELLING everything I possibly could in this time frame, CD's, FNMA's, bonds,. etc)

which is why I "listen" to CNBC with a volume turned off (except the government reports)

TIMING is EVERYTHING in investments and I feel sorry for the folks who put money into this recommendation when it came out....they were probably the ones who sold it it to me at the prices 15-20% below from where they were from March 1st 'til they just fell off the cliff lately
(I'm sure you don't need the chart and seen it all yourself)
;-)))

but as always, some people's losses are some people' gains
;-))

with exception of EAD,
I was playing all those funds last year (and some this year) long before those "ANALysis discovered them.

How much is the job of UBS ANALyst pays? I can't do worse, please keep my resume on file
;-)))

Serge

P.S. for the future, let's keep this modus operandi and let's make sure I get ANALysts recommendations 5-6 weeks AFTER they come out and become public
;-)))

[wig]

ROFLMAO

That's the funniest thing I have read in some time. I am in tears.

I really cannot stop laughing.... it is so "Serge". ;-)))

[Shoplifter]

How do you guys feel about bond funds now that there are rumours of rate hikes?

I finally sold off the rest of my bond funds today and am now largely liquid. These funds did about 22% for me over the last 18 months, but they are beginning to lose value. How bad will bond funds slip?

[Winetalk.com]

Originally posted by Shoplifter@Apr 22 2004, 11:48 PM
How do you guys feel about bond funds now that there are rumours of rate hikes?

I finally sold off the rest of my bond funds today and am now largely liquid. These funds did about 22% for me over the last 18 months, but they are beginning to lose value. How bad will bond funds slip?
you sold?
well, you sold them to me, I was buying all week long.

as for their slips, I think we had the worst drop for this particular move and now will see some recovery.

I don't see rates moving more than 1 % on the next leg and this is already priced in by the market.

[wig]

Bonds are actually at the most likely point for a low from a long term cycle point of view IMO.

April 19-23rd is 36 weeks from the Aug 11-15th low, which was 36 weeks from the preceding low, which was 36 weeks from still another preceding low.

This week is also the mid point between the Aug 2003 low and the critical long-term cycle forecast for early 2005.

I would not be surprised to see the most recent low hold for sometime, especially if bonds can close out the week above 108.23/USM today (which would be the first good signal).

Will the market fly in the face of reason and fundamentals yet again? ;-))

[Winetalk.com]

bonds are falling after report,
but...
still hold the trend line of the last 25 years

http://chart.yahoo.com/c/my/_/_tyx.gif

I'll be keeping my eyes on
EAD, MAC and all the ETF's I sold yesterday
;-))))

[wig]

Serge,

I think you are right on the money.

But, for clarification, the chart you posted is yield and not price.

Bond prices have been trending up (yields down) over this time.

I know you know the difference and that we are in agreement, but it might be confusing to others. ;-))

[Winetalk.com]

Originally posted by wig@Apr 23 2004, 07:53 AM
Serge,

I think you are right on the money.

But, for clarification, the chart you posted is yield and not price.

Bond prices have been trending up (yields down) over this time.

I know you know the difference and that we are in agreement, but it might be confusing to others. ;-))
wig, fuck others, 70% of the people have no clue what we are talking about and for them it doesn't make any difference if we talk yeild or price anyway
;-)))

[wig]

Originally posted by Serge_Oprano+Apr 23 2004, 07:55 AM--></span><table border='0' align='center' width='95%' cellpadding='3' cellspacing='1'><tr><td>QUOTE (Serge_Oprano @ Apr 23 2004, 07:55 AM)</td></tr><tr><td id='QUOTE'><!--QuoteBegin--wig@Apr 23 2004, 07:53 AM
Serge,

I think you are right on the money.

But, for clarification, the chart you posted is yield and not price.

Bond prices have been trending up (yields down) over this time.

I know you know the difference and that we are in agreement, but it might be confusing to others. ;-))
wig, fuck others, 70% of the people have no clue what we are talking about and for them it doesn't make any difference if we talk yeild or price anyway
;-)))[/b][/quote]
Word!

;-))

[bpj]

Now give your take on the metals too Wig!
Serge was asking about it a few weeks ago and it appears that it was worth the wait... ;-)
My "gold finger" is getting itchy..... and i feel we are getting close!

[Winetalk.com]

Originally posted by bpj@Apr 23 2004, 09:33 AM
Now give your take on the metals too Wig!
Serge was asking about it a few weeks ago and it appears that it was worth the wait... ;-)
My "gold finger" is getting itchy..... and i feel we are getting close!
yeap....when AU goes to below 32,
I'll start writing 30th puts
;-)))

[wig]

Originally posted by bpj@Apr 23 2004, 09:33 AM
Now give your take on the metals too Wig!
Serge was asking about it a few weeks ago and it appears that it was worth the wait... ;-)
My "gold finger" is getting itchy..... and i feel we are getting close!
Still consider Gold to be in a consolidation phase.

Look for a decline into late July - early August.

If that proves to be a low, that would be a place to look at pulling the trigger.

IMHO