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Winetalk.com
04-18-2004, 09:01 AM
charts with everage USA/Japan/Germany age from about 1980 to today?

I _think_ I spotted correlation between the age of population and interest rates in the country.

If I am correct, interest rates won't go sky high any time soon.

Almighty Colin
04-18-2004, 09:17 AM
If you spotted a correlation, aren't you already looking at the data?

Anyway. here's a chart of the US median from 1860 and projected to 2050.
http://iucar.iu.edu/geninfo/demo/medage.html

Almighty Colin
04-18-2004, 09:18 AM
Here's a nice one for 1929-1994, Serge.

http://scholar.lib.vt.edu/theses/available...ted/CHAP2-3.PDF (http://scholar.lib.vt.edu/theses/available/etd-12098-13236/unrestricted/CHAP2-3.PDF)

Almighty Colin
04-18-2004, 09:23 AM
Here you go, Serge.

http://healthguide.kihasa.re.kr/eng/statis.../sts100008.html (http://healthguide.kihasa.re.kr/eng/statistics/sts100008.html)

(median again but for all 3 of those countries)

Winetalk.com
04-18-2004, 09:26 AM
Originally posted by Colin@Apr 18 2004, 08:25 AM
If you spotted a correlation, aren't you already looking at the data?

Anyway. here's a chart of the US median from 1860 and projected to 2050.
http://iucar.iu.edu/geninfo/demo/medage.html
no, I wasn't looking,
it was just a pure hunch and your chart is confirming it.

now...take a look at

http://chart.yahoo.com/c/my/_/_tyx.gif

which is a chart of interest rates over the last 25 years.

interest rates are inverse with average age of population.

I _think_ the reason for it is:
when we are young, we taking more risks, invest in stocks but with age,
we are getting more conservative and looking for ways to lend money instead of investing in the industry.

there is abundance of money in USA and with population getting older, the supply of money to borrow will only increase, thus preasure the interest rates which are the PRICE of borrowing money,
supply and demand.

With China supplying cheap labor and finished goods,
the inflationary preasures are in check.


resume:
buy quality bonds on the dips, collect the interest and lock in longer terms.


does it make sense?

Winetalk.com
04-18-2004, 09:31 AM
Originally posted by Colin@Apr 18 2004, 08:31 AM
Here you go, Serge.

http://healthguide.kihasa.re.kr/eng/statis.../sts100008.html (http://healthguide.kihasa.re.kr/eng/statistics/sts100008.html)

(median again but for all 3 of those countries)
very good one...
Turkey - VERY young population, interest rates are HIGH,
Japan is very OLD and interest rates are close to ZERO

Winetalk.com
04-18-2004, 09:33 AM
australians are younger than americans...
cj, what are the interest rates climate in Australia?

If I am correct in my thinking, the rates in Australia are HIGHER than they are in USA

Mike AI
04-18-2004, 10:01 AM
Serge and Colin, I think ya'll should look more into it and write an article - bet you can get into the economist!!

There are so many ways to look at the economy. One big issue that always scares me is the personal household debt of this country. The number is stagering.

I also do not put faith in normal cycles because of federal gov't intervention.

Winetalk.com
04-18-2004, 10:11 AM
Mike, household debt is also shows me that the interest rates have no other way to go but DOWN....as more and more people reach the stage where they are inelligable for more borrowing.

Monk
04-18-2004, 11:19 AM
A. maybe instead of the population age affecting interest rates... it is the interest rates affecting the population. Does it matter? Maybe not.. but if it is this way then we will see interest rates turn before average age turns.

B. I think you need a much longer time frame than 25 years as financial markets are thought by many to go in 20-ish year cycles.

C. If they ARE tied together inversely, what if we are at a top of the average age cycle? If it starts going down today... won't interest rates go up?

D. Was there a huge drop in the average age when interest rates skyrocketd in the 70's / early 80's? If not, then this tool can not be used with any certainty to predict interest rates.

E. Maybe they just happen to be 2 trends going in opposite directions and there is no connection at all? Maybe the average temperature for the last 25 years could be plotted inversely against interest rates too?



Last edited by Monk at Apr 18 2004, 10:40 AM

cj
04-18-2004, 11:46 AM
Originally posted by Serge_Oprano@Apr 18 2004, 08:41 AM
australians are younger than americans...
cj, what are the interest rates climate in Australia?

If I am correct in my thinking, the rates in Australia are HIGHER than they are in USA
interest rates have been good lately but risen in the last 12 months.
http://www.economagic.com/em-cgi/data.exe/...e/rba/firmmcm11 (http://www.economagic.com/em-cgi/data.exe/rba/firmmcm11)

this has a few graphs on it about age of owners of shares etc
http://www.asx.com.au/shareholder/pdf/Shar...nership2002.pdf (http://www.asx.com.au/shareholder/pdf/Shareownership2002.pdf)

and
http://www.abs.gov.au/Ausstats/abs@.nsf/0/...c1?OpenDocument (http://www.abs.gov.au/Ausstats/abs@.nsf/0/b52c3903d894336dca2568a9001393c1?OpenDocument)

AGEING POPULATION

The median age of the Australian population, the age at which half the population is older and half is younger, has increased by 5.9 years in the last 20 years from 30.2 years at 30 June 1983 to 36.1 years at 30 June 2003. Between 30 June 2002 and 2003 there was an increase in the median age of 0.2 years. Australia's population is ageing because of a sustained low level of fertility, which has resulted in proportionally fewer children in the population, and increased life expectancy.

interest rates have risen .7% since the median age went up .2 years ...

you'll have to look deeper to back your numbers :P

this thing is cool, population pyramid ... http://www.census.gov/ipc/www/idbpyr.html

cj
04-18-2004, 11:51 AM
or .... interest rates were at their lowest for a while (4.25%) during these 'stats' announcements in 2001 .....

from: http://media.pearson.com.au/schools/cw/atl...2-1/bnaging.htm (http://media.pearson.com.au/schools/cw/atlas/bn/bn-2002-1/bnaging.htm)

The median age of the Australian population, the age at which half of the population is older and half is younger, was 35.4 years in June 2001, an increase of 5.8 years over the past twenty years.

During the twelve months to June 2001, the number of children aged 0–14 years increased by just 0.03%, the number of people aged 15–64 years increased by 1.4% while those aged 65 years and over increased by 1.8%. The greatest population increase in the twelve months to June 2001 occurred in the 85 years and over age group which increased by 5.7%. Australia’s population as a whole increased by 1.2% or 229 500 people.

Over the past twenty years, low fertility levels have resulted in minimal growth in the number of children aged 0–14 years (5%). In contrast, the number of persons aged 15–64 years has increased by 34%, those aged 65 years and over have increased by 65%, with those aged 85 years and over showing the greatest increase (156%).

Winetalk.com
04-18-2004, 01:41 PM
Originally posted by Monk@Apr 18 2004, 10:27 AM
A. maybe instead of the population age affecting interest rates... it is the interest rates affecting the population. Does it matter? Maybe not.. but if it is this way then we will see interest rates turn before average age turns.

B. I think you need a much longer time frame than 25 years as financial markets are thought by many to go in 20-ish year cycles.

C. If they ARE tied together inversely, what if we are at a top of the average age cycle? If it starts going down today... won't interest rates go up?

D. Was there a huge drop in the average age when interest rates skyrocketd in the 70's / early 80's? If not, then this tool can not be used with any certainty to predict interest rates.

E. Maybe they just happen to be 2 trends going in opposite directions and there is no connection at all? Maybe the average temperature for the last 25 years could be plotted inversely against interest rates too?
Monk,
plot into your questions the baby boom effect and all will fall in it's place.

there is a certain delay between age/interest rates, as new borns do not invest, it takes them time to acumulate wealth to invest.

your questions seem to confirm my THEORY,
and so are cj's.

the KEY thing is:
when TREND is established,
the tail follows the head and cj's numbers eem to confirm that as well.

I am NOT claiming to be 100% right or take in conciderations all the factors, but....
I am ONLY interested in the whole thing from perspective of which maturities overweight in the porfolios and I'll be putting big chunks in longer maturitis vs short maturities which might NOT find interest rates better at re-investment times....

I also found interesting correlation:
the HIGHER the credit rating of the securities in the bunch,
the more they appreciated in price,
even though they pay less dividends than closer to junk bonds

Winetalk.com
04-18-2004, 01:43 PM
cj,
where can i find time/average age chart of OZ popuylation over the last 30 years and
time/rates of OZ long term treasuries?

I'd like to superimpose them and see
1) channel;s the rates are in
2) aging progression in time

Monk
04-18-2004, 04:09 PM
Originally posted by Serge_Oprano@Apr 18 2004, 12:49 PM
your questions seem to confirm my THEORY,
and so are cj's.

how does this confirm your theory?

D. Was there a huge drop in the average age when interest rates skyrocketd in the 70's / early 80's? If not, then this tool can not be used with any certainty to predict interest rates.

Winetalk.com
04-18-2004, 04:26 PM
Originally posted by Monk+Apr 18 2004, 03:17 PM--></span><table border='0' align='center' width='95%' cellpadding='3' cellspacing='1'><tr><td>QUOTE (Monk @ Apr 18 2004, 03:17 PM)</td></tr><tr><td id='QUOTE'><!--QuoteBegin--Serge_Oprano@Apr 18 2004, 12:49 PM
your questions seem to confirm my THEORY,
and so are cj's.

how does this confirm your theory?

D. Was there a huge drop in the average age when interest rates skyrocketd in the 70's / early 80's? If not, then this tool can not be used with any certainty to predict interest rates.[/b][/quote]
of course it was...
I thought you saw the chart posted by Colin and STUDY the issue at length for the sake of analysis and not just for shaking the air:

http://scholar.lib.vt.edu/theses/available...ted/CHAP2-3.PDF (http://scholar.lib.vt.edu/theses/available/etd-12098-13236/unrestricted/CHAP2-3.PDF)

Monk
04-18-2004, 04:56 PM
Originally posted by Serge_Oprano@Apr 18 2004, 03:34 PM

I thought you saw the chart posted by Colin and STUDY the issue at length for the sake of analysis and not just for shaking the air:

That was your first mistake (or maybe your second)... :o)

You are the one that is interested in this... you can study it at length if you wish but I won't be.... I was trying to be helpful by pointing out potential flaws in your thinking.

Can you provide a short answer on whether the interest spike in the 70's / 80's invalidates your theory? If not... why not?

Monk
04-18-2004, 04:58 PM
Addendum... I looked at the first chart in that link and it appears the median age increased uniformly right through the 70's / 80's

Winetalk.com
04-18-2004, 04:58 PM
Originally posted by Monk+Apr 18 2004, 04:04 PM--></span><table border='0' align='center' width='95%' cellpadding='3' cellspacing='1'><tr><td>QUOTE (Monk @ Apr 18 2004, 04:04 PM)</td></tr><tr><td id='QUOTE'><!--QuoteBegin--Serge_Oprano@Apr 18 2004, 03:34 PM

I thought you saw the chart posted by Colin and STUDY the issue at length for the sake of analysis and not just for shaking the air:

That was your first mistake (or maybe your second)... :o)

You are the one that is interested in this... you can study it at length if you wish but I won't be.... I was trying to be helpful by pointing out potential flaws in your thinking.

Can you provide a short answer on whether the interest spike in the 70's / 80's invalidates your theory? If not... why not?[/b][/quote]
it confirms my theory.

the spike in rates was preceeded by dip in average age.

Monk,
why do I have a feeling I talk to a wall with a hearing problem?

Winetalk.com
04-18-2004, 05:00 PM
Originally posted by Monk@Apr 18 2004, 04:06 PM
Addendum... I looked at the first chart in that link and it appears the median age increased uniformly right through the 70's / 80's
deaf wall syndrom again...

I stipulated about age delay factor, as 1 year olds do NOT invest,
which was lost on the deaf bricks
;-((((

Monk
04-18-2004, 05:07 PM
Originally posted by Serge_Oprano@Apr 18 2004, 04:06 PM
why do I have a feeling I talk to a wall with a hearing problem?


I have the same feeling... join the club.

Monk
04-18-2004, 05:10 PM
Originally posted by Serge_Oprano@Apr 18 2004, 04:08 PM

I stipulated about age delay factor, as 1 year olds do NOT invest,
which was lost on the deaf bricks
;-((((
.. so what exactly in the relationship then???

How much delay factor?

If this is something you are using to make investment decisions, you should have a precise relationship that you can chart out.... what EXACTLY is the relationship???

Winetalk.com
04-18-2004, 05:13 PM
Originally posted by Monk+Apr 18 2004, 04:18 PM--></span><table border='0' align='center' width='95%' cellpadding='3' cellspacing='1'><tr><td>QUOTE (Monk @ Apr 18 2004, 04:18 PM)</td></tr><tr><td id='QUOTE'><!--QuoteBegin--Serge_Oprano@Apr 18 2004, 04:08 PM

I stipulated about age delay factor, as 1 year olds do NOT invest,
which was lost on the deaf bricks
;-((((
.. so what exactly in the relationship then???

How much delay factor?

If this is something you are using to make investment decisions, you should have a precise relationship that you can chart out.... what EXACTLY is the relationship???[/b][/quote]
Monk,
I am sorry, I shouldn't have you involved in the conversation.

You either truly dumb or pulling my leg, and I don't have the time for neither nor...

EVERYTHING I wanted to say is already said, and I will NOT chew the answers for you.

as for PRESIZE charting,
this animal DOESN'T EXIST in nature, and if that's what you are looking for,
you'll have better chances to find the system beating the house playing roulette.

Monk
04-18-2004, 05:22 PM
good luck with that serge. another standard 50% knowledge and 50% bullshit thread from you...

enough to fool most people reading the thread though... congrats.

Monk
04-18-2004, 05:23 PM
and its PRECISE, not PRESIZE.... and yes there is such a thing as precise charting.... doesn't mean their is precise INTERPRETATION of charts....

but yet you couldn't even produce a chart so that issue is moot.

Monk
04-18-2004, 05:25 PM
... and that is all the time I have for you today serge... no more from me in this thread.

Start a new one when you get another brainstorm.

Winetalk.com
04-18-2004, 05:28 PM
Originally posted by Monk@Apr 18 2004, 04:30 PM
good luck with that serge. another standard 50% knowledge and 50% bullshit thread from you...

enough to fool most people reading the thread though... congrats.
cretin,
the thread started as theory,
outcome of this theory can NOT influence the market or outcome of the future, and you just piss because you are a stupid MORON who likes to piss for the sake of pissing.

therefore...fuck off,
you are as useless as tits on the bull.

Winetalk.com
04-18-2004, 05:31 PM
Originally posted by Monk@Apr 18 2004, 04:33 PM
no more from me in this thread.


thanks, it's all my fault,
inviting MORON to discuss a theory was a STUPID move on my part.

cj
04-18-2004, 08:48 PM
Originally posted by Serge_Oprano@Apr 18 2004, 12:51 PM
cj,
where can i find time/average age chart of OZ popuylation over the last 30 years and
time/rates of OZ long term treasuries?

I'd like to superimpose them and see
1) channel;s the rates are in
2) aging progression in time
help me, i'm lost in numbers :(

http://www.abs.gov.au

this is the australian Bureau of Statistics website. i can't find charts with a specific 30 year period, i think this page on ages covers 20 years ...

ages of australians: http://www.abs.gov.au/Ausstats/abs@.nsf/0/...c1?OpenDocument (http://www.abs.gov.au/Ausstats/abs@.nsf/0/b52c3903d894336dca2568a9001393c1?OpenDocument)

population comparisons between countries:
http://www.abs.gov.au/Ausstats/abs@.nsf/Lo...A256A7100188A7C (http://www.abs.gov.au/Ausstats/abs@.nsf/Lookup/93D90E2E55DFA003CA256A7100188A7C)

Demographic influences on economies:
http://www.treasury.gov.au/documents/119/H...p?URL=3demo.asp (http://www.treasury.gov.au/documents/119/HTML/docshell.asp?URL=3demo.asp)

here's a graph that shows 10 years of interest rates:
http://www.mlim.com.au/cms/public/mlim003551.jsp

20 years of securities
http://www.aofm.gov.au/content/_download/s...cs/TableH19.pdf (http://www.aofm.gov.au/content/_download/statistics/TableH19.pdf)

I don't understand how to read any of this well enough to find the data presented how you want it ... hopefully you can recognize what you are looking for on one of these links.

Sorry I couldn't be more helpful! please don't call me a moron too :cryin: :cryin:

Winetalk.com
04-18-2004, 10:18 PM
cj,
here is the trend:
Interest rates:
DOWN

http://www.mlim.com.au/cms/public/images/mlim003551-2.gif

age:


average age grows HIGHER:

http://healthguide.kihasa.re.kr/eng/statis.../sts100008.html (http://healthguide.kihasa.re.kr/eng/statistics/sts100008.html)

Winetalk.com
04-18-2004, 10:36 PM
here is another interesting factor:

http://www.uni-kiel.de/ifw/pub/symposia/aging.htm

cj
04-18-2004, 10:43 PM
ok, but if you go back further in oz interest rates, they start to rise in around 1974 and have a steady increase until this graph you have shown below which starts in the early 90's ...

our interest rates during the 80's peaked at 20% (in 82), 19% (in 85) and 18% (in 89) ... so although there may be an underlying effect of age of population, aren't there too many other factors involved to draw this conclusion from this data or does the 80's just not count because of the drama of that decade?

this chart shows the exact interest rates for each quarter of each year since 1959

http://www.economagic.com/em-cgi/data.exe/...e/rba/firmmcm11 (http://www.economagic.com/em-cgi/data.exe/rba/firmmcm11)

what i can see is that interest rates started dropping dramatically in the 90's despite the age of the population increasing by 1.4 years at the beginning of the 80's and another 1.4 years in the mid 80's (when interest rates were at their highest) after staying the same for 20 years ... increase of 1.3 years in 1990 and 1.9 years in 1995.

So based on the theory of age affecting interest rates, why were they so high in the 80's when our population started aging? did it need a whole decade to balance out?

Serge, this is like you helping me figure out something with photoshop LMAO i'm so lost :biglaugh:

Winetalk.com
04-18-2004, 10:54 PM
Originally posted by cj@Apr 18 2004, 09:51 PM


So based on the theory of age affecting interest rates, why were they so high in the 80's when our population started aging? did it need a whole decade to balance out?


elementary, Watson...
population started aging, meaning, baby boomers reached the capacity and earning power enough to increase demand for money drastically.

as I mentioned earlier,
there is a certain delay in age up-interest rates down,
due to the factor that 1 year old can't invest.

1 year old baby boomer needs to reach 30+/- to have enough capital and knowledge to start investing in stocks, own business, etc...

if you take this delay in concideration,
everything else comes into place

cj
04-18-2004, 11:14 PM
i'm starting to see what you mean ...

what about things like the age of immigrants? I guess I need to understand the rules of why they let certain people in and not others - income status is obviously not the only important factor. Its a careful line in who you let in - would they use immigrants to balance the age of the population etc?

Winetalk.com
04-18-2004, 11:28 PM
Originally posted by cj@Apr 18 2004, 10:22 PM
i'm starting to see what you mean ...

what about things like the age of immigrants? I guess I need to understand the rules of why they let certain people in and not others - income status is obviously not the only important factor. Its a careful line in who you let in - would they use immigrants to balance the age of the population etc?
cj,
when I was an immigrant,
Australia was tough on new blood...they ONLY wanted young couples and preferably professionals.
Look around Sydney,
you'll find a large Russian community there
;-)))

Young immigrants are GOOD for the economy,
they are taxpayers and consumers, what's not to love?
;-)))

cj
04-18-2004, 11:38 PM
I remember Melissa Davies didn't have much luck either ... single mom ...

I'll be Australia is thankful they didn't let you in ... I mean, after all, you are just a bum who would have sat around on welfare!!!!

LMAO

Winetalk.com
04-18-2004, 11:45 PM
Originally posted by cj@Apr 18 2004, 10:46 PM
I remember Melissa Davies didn't have much luck either ... single mom ...

I'll be Australia is thankful they didn't let you in ... I mean, after all, you are just a bum who would have sat around on welfare!!!!

LMAO
cj, I never concidered going to Australia...too far for me,
I like my Europe, which is spit away from USA
;-)))

Almighty Colin
04-19-2004, 06:02 AM
Originally posted by cj@Apr 18 2004, 10:54 AM
this thing is cool, population pyramid ... http://www.census.gov/ipc/www/idbpyr.html
Wow, cool tool.

What's interesting is the many western nations which are on a path to decreasing or stable populations.

With history as a guide, this will likely shift power towards the Eastern/Asian region. Look at the predicted population for Bangladesh, for example. Predicted to double to about the population of the US today in the next 50 years. France, on the other hand is forecast to have a smaller population in 2050 than in 2025.

wig
04-19-2004, 12:17 PM
Originally posted by Serge_Oprano@Apr 18 2004, 08:09 AM
charts with everage USA/Japan/Germany age from about 1980 to today?

I _think_ I spotted correlation between the age of population and interest rates in the country.

If I am correct, interest rates won't go sky high any time soon.
Serge,

It is an interesting correlation, but it is counter to why I use charts and, as a result, I really do not have a strong opinion on it.

To me, charts are not to reinforce fundamentals.

They are for anticipating/observing the power and direction of money WITHOUT having to associate any fundamental reason to it.

Winetalk.com
04-19-2004, 12:23 PM
Originally posted by wig+Apr 19 2004, 11:25 AM--></span><table border='0' align='center' width='95%' cellpadding='3' cellspacing='1'><tr><td>QUOTE (wig @ Apr 19 2004, 11:25 AM)</td></tr><tr><td id='QUOTE'><!--QuoteBegin--Serge_Oprano@Apr 18 2004, 08:09 AM
charts with everage USA/Japan/Germany age from about 1980 to today?

I _think_ I spotted correlation between the age of population and interest rates in the country.

If I am correct, interest rates won't go sky high any time soon.
Serge,

It is an interesting correlation, but it is counter to why I use charts and, as a result, I really do not have a strong opinion on it.

To me, charts are not to reinforce fundamentals.

They are for anticipating/observing the power and direction of money WITHOUT having to associate any fundamental reason to it.[/b][/quote]
wig,
I look for the next 20-30 years ahead, and this is where the fundamentals are more accurate than technicals.

on the shorter time frames, technicals rule with no doubts!

wig
04-19-2004, 12:37 PM
Originally posted by Serge_Oprano+Apr 19 2004, 11:31 AM--></span><table border='0' align='center' width='95%' cellpadding='3' cellspacing='1'><tr><td>QUOTE (Serge_Oprano @ Apr 19 2004, 11:31 AM)</td></tr><tr><td id='QUOTE'>Originally posted by -wig@Apr 19 2004, 11:25 AM
<!--QuoteBegin--Serge_Oprano@Apr 18 2004, 08:09 AM
charts with everage USA/Japan/Germany age from about 1980 to today?

I _think_ I spotted correlation between the age of population and interest rates in the country.

If I am correct, interest rates won't go sky high any time soon.
Serge,

It is an interesting correlation, but it is counter to why I use charts and, as a result, I really do not have a strong opinion on it.

To me, charts are not to reinforce fundamentals.

They are for anticipating/observing the power and direction of money WITHOUT having to associate any fundamental reason to it.
wig,
I look for the next 20-30 years ahead, and this is where the fundamentals are more accurate than technicals.

on the shorter time frames, technicals rule with no doubts![/b][/quote]
I think I can agree with you there. ;-)

I never look out more than say 5 years and even then it is with a skeptical eye.

Winetalk.com
04-19-2004, 12:39 PM
wig,
I have no choice but to look faaaaaarrrr forward...I count on the worst case scenario that I am still alive in 2030
;-)))

wig
04-19-2004, 12:42 PM
So are you off to buy long term Munis? LOL

Winetalk.com
04-19-2004, 12:54 PM
Originally posted by wig@Apr 19 2004, 11:50 AM
So are you off to buy long term Munis? LOL
yeap...I threw over 1/2 a mil into it last week,
and still throwing worthless cash after it on any declines.

moistly in AAA or INSURED, HIGH quality stuff.

wig
04-19-2004, 01:51 PM
Originally posted by Serge_Oprano+Apr 19 2004, 12:02 PM--></span><table border='0' align='center' width='95%' cellpadding='3' cellspacing='1'><tr><td>QUOTE (Serge_Oprano @ Apr 19 2004, 12:02 PM)</td></tr><tr><td id='QUOTE'><!--QuoteBegin--wig@Apr 19 2004, 11:50 AM
So are you off to buy long term Munis? LOL
yeap...I threw over 1/2 a mil into it last week,
and still throwing worthless cash after it on any declines.

moistly in AAA or INSURED, HIGH quality stuff.[/b][/quote]
Personally, I think that interest rates will bottom no later than the first quarter of 2005 and then go back up.

But, you know how I like safe, income producing vehicles to offset my more speculative futures trading. ;-))

I guess I would just ladder my maturities, staying as short as possible.

Do you still have your interest rate hedge funds?

Winetalk.com
04-19-2004, 01:55 PM
Originally posted by wig+Apr 19 2004, 12:59 PM--></span><table border='0' align='center' width='95%' cellpadding='3' cellspacing='1'><tr><td>QUOTE (wig @ Apr 19 2004, 12:59 PM)</td></tr><tr><td id='QUOTE'>Originally posted by -Serge_Oprano@Apr 19 2004, 12:02 PM
<!--QuoteBegin--wig@Apr 19 2004, 11:50 AM
So are you off to buy long term Munis? LOL
yeap...I threw over 1/2 a mil into it last week,
and still throwing worthless cash after it on any declines.

moistly in AAA or INSURED, HIGH quality stuff.
Personally, I think that interest rates will bottom no later than the first quarter of 2005 and then go back up.

But, you know how I like safe, income producing vehicles to offset my more speculative futures trading. ;-))

I guess I would just ladder my maturities, staying as short as possible.

Do you still have your interest rate hedge funds?[/b][/quote]
I have and buy lots and lots ETF's, not hedge funds.
I buy them at 5-8% discount to NAV,
thus getting more interest than buying individual components,
and spread my risks thru out the country/world/maturities

my philosophy is simple-
interest is mine,
principal is for beneficiearies to worry about
;-)))

wig
04-19-2004, 02:01 PM
Originally posted by Serge_Oprano@Apr 19 2004, 01:03 PM
my philosophy is simple-
interest is mine,
principal is for beneficiearies to worry about
;-)))
Good philosophy for those with enough principal and therefore interest!

I need rates at 10% to say the same. ;-((

Winetalk.com
04-19-2004, 02:17 PM
Originally posted by wig+Apr 19 2004, 01:09 PM--></span><table border='0' align='center' width='95%' cellpadding='3' cellspacing='1'><tr><td>QUOTE (wig @ Apr 19 2004, 01:09 PM)</td></tr><tr><td id='QUOTE'><!--QuoteBegin--Serge_Oprano@Apr 19 2004, 01:03 PM
my philosophy is simple-
interest is mine,
principal is for beneficiearies to worry about
;-)))
Good philosophy for those with enough principal and therefore interest!

I need rates at 10% to say the same. ;-(([/b][/quote]
ha! what do you think I invest?

10%+, leveraged, though, with mostly AAA/government ratings...

need names?

Winetalk.com
04-19-2004, 02:18 PM
P.S.
even though my AVERAGE return is...4%,
I still have lots and lots of cash
;-(((