Dumb football pool question

[Peaches]

Since I know nothing about football, I'm TRYING to look at this logically and it makes no sense to me:

Why does Indiana get 3.5 points on the spread this week? :zoinks:

[clemsontiger]

Originally posted by Peaches@Dec 7 2003, 01:00 PM
Since I know nothing about football, I'm TRYING to look at this logically and it makes no sense to me:

Why does Indiana get 3.5 points on the spread this week? :zoinks:
First of all, it's Indianapolis. Second of all, the spread is the number of points that professionals (critics) come up with that they think the one team is better than the other. If the spread is 0 then they consider the teams to be equal. Since Indianapolis has a 3.5 spread, they feel that Indianapolis is better than Tennessee by 3.5 points.

[Peaches]

Originally posted by clemsontiger@Dec 7 2003, 01:43 PM
First of all, it's Indianapolis.
I was abbreviating it....yeah, that's the ticket.... :rolleyes: Plus, isn't Indianapolis IN Indiana? B)
Second of all, the spread is the number of points that professionals (critics) come up with that they think the one team is better than the other. If the spread is 0 then they consider the teams to be equal. Since Indianapolis has a 3.5 spread, they feel that Indianapolis is better than Tennessee by 3.5 points.
Yes, I know how it works, but they gave Indianapolis the 3.5 points which means they think Tennessee is better than THEY are, right? :huh:

I suck at math. :angry:

[Hell Puppy]

The lines are complicated. But remember they're more about the betting than they are predictions of score. The casinos will give just enough points to the underdog team to get people to bet on 'em.

When setting the lines these days the big vegas bookmakers may use everything from complex computer simulations to the arthritis in their granny's knee to make the forecast. The won-loss record of each team in football isn't all that relevant. Football is played one week at a time and you have to figure in weather, injuries, emotion, etc.

The Falcons this week are a perfect example. They're 2-10 and have looked pretty pathetic all season long. They're playing the division leader and they're only getting 1.5 points. Why? Michael Vick is starting. The feeling with most people betting will be that Carolina has been sliding the the Falcons should be pumped up and a different team with Vick in the game. It only takes 1.5 points to even up the bets. Without Vick, the Falcons probably get 5.5 points against the Panthers.

[Peaches]

Originally posted by Hell Puppy@Dec 7 2003, 05:12 PM
The lines are complicated. But remember they're more about the betting than they are predictions of score. The casinos will give just enough points to the underdog team to get people to bet on 'em.
So, trying to make sense of it is bascially futile. :grrr:

[Hell Puppy]

Originally posted by Peaches+Dec 7 2003, 05:40 PM--></span><table border='0' align='center' width='95%' cellpadding='3' cellspacing='1'><tr><td>QUOTE (Peaches @ Dec 7 2003, 05:40 PM)</td></tr><tr><td id='QUOTE'><!--QuoteBegin--Hell Puppy@Dec 7 2003, 05:12 PM
The lines are complicated. But remember they're more about the betting than they are predictions of score. The casinos will give just enough points to the underdog team to get people to bet on 'em.
So, trying to make sense of it is bascially futile. :grrr:[/b][/quote]
Pretty much.

If a team you think is going to win is the underdog, take 'em anyway and consider the points a gift.

[Meni]

all the line is, is the point spread that will get equal money bet on both teams
then the bookie/casino makes his 10% vig

[DaisyDiaz]

Originally posted by Peaches+Dec 7 2003, 02:40 PM--></span><table border='0' align='center' width='95%' cellpadding='3' cellspacing='1'><tr><td>QUOTE (Peaches @ Dec 7 2003, 02:40 PM)</td></tr><tr><td id='QUOTE'><!--QuoteBegin--Hell Puppy@Dec 7 2003, 05:12 PM
The lines are complicated. But remember they're more about the betting than they are predictions of score. The casinos will give just enough points to the underdog team to get people to bet on 'em.
So, trying to make sense of it is bascially futile. :grrr:[/b][/quote]
I have to agree with you Peaches! I think I ask this same question every week to my friends and it still just doesn't make sense to me! LOL and I am just glad I like the game and don't worry about how much I suck when I do my picks, hehe :agrin:

[Hell Puppy]

Originally posted by DaisyDiaz+Dec 7 2003, 10:32 PM--></span><table border='0' align='center' width='95%' cellpadding='3' cellspacing='1'><tr><td>QUOTE (DaisyDiaz @ Dec 7 2003, 10:32 PM)</td></tr><tr><td id='QUOTE'>Originally posted by -Peaches@Dec 7 2003, 02:40 PM
<!--QuoteBegin--Hell Puppy@Dec 7 2003, 05:12 PM
The lines are complicated. But remember they're more about the betting than they are predictions of score. The casinos will give just enough points to the underdog team to get people to bet on 'em.
So, trying to make sense of it is bascially futile. :grrr:
I have to agree with you Peaches! I think I ask this same question every week to my friends and it still just doesn't make sense to me! LOL and I am just glad I like the game and don't worry about how much I suck when I do my picks, hehe :agrin:[/b][/quote]
The spread does equalize things somewhat. I think the true champion of the pickem last year was likely the "random picks" button. I think the weekly winner was someone who had hit "random" almost half of the weeks last year. Shame it is missing from the software this year.

And welcome to the board by the way, just looked at your site, very nice.

[DaisyDiaz]

Originally posted by Hell Puppy+Dec 7 2003, 08:55 PM--></span><table border='0' align='center' width='95%' cellpadding='3' cellspacing='1'><tr><td>QUOTE (Hell Puppy @ Dec 7 2003, 08:55 PM)</td></tr><tr><td id='QUOTE'>Originally posted by -DaisyDiaz@Dec 7 2003, 10:32 PM
Originally posted by -Peaches@Dec 7 2003, 02:40 PM
<!--QuoteBegin--Hell Puppy@Dec 7 2003, 05:12 PM
The lines are complicated. But remember they're more about the betting than they are predictions of score. The casinos will give just enough points to the underdog team to get people to bet on 'em.
So, trying to make sense of it is bascially futile. :grrr:
I have to agree with you Peaches! I think I ask this same question every week to my friends and it still just doesn't make sense to me! LOL and I am just glad I like the game and don't worry about how much I suck when I do my picks, hehe :agrin:
The spread does equalize things somewhat. I think the true champion of the pickem last year was likely the "random picks" button. I think the weekly winner was someone who had hit "random" almost half of the weeks last year. Shame it is missing from the software this year.

And welcome to the board by the way, just looked at your site, very nice.[/b][/quote]
Thank you so much Hell Puppy! I will take a compliment whenever I get it!
Although I am fixing to make some changes to the site, at least my processor.
Ohh and I didn't do all that bad this week in my picks, my "newest" system seemed to work this week WooHoo!
Not to mention that I have my own pool on my site and if I lose against a particular player I have to eat an Anchovy on cam....I am pulling out all the stops to make sure I don't! :matey:

[ulfie]

Originally posted by Meni@Dec 7 2003, 08:48 PM
all the line is, is the point spread that will get equal money bet on both teams
then the bookie/casino makes his 10% vig
Meni hit the nail on the head. All the bookies want are the same number of people betting on the winners that will be betting on the losers. They make their money off the 10% or whatever they charge to make the bet. They pay the winners with the losers money and collect a % from both sides. As long as the amount bet on both sides is equal they make money.

I have a friend that makes his living betting sports. He only bets a few games a week but he bets heavy when he does. All he does is look for point spreads that are out of whack. He's amazing at it but won't share his picks with anyone. :(

[DaisyDiaz]

Originally posted by ulfie+Dec 8 2003, 12:38 PM--></span><table border='0' align='center' width='95%' cellpadding='3' cellspacing='1'><tr><td>QUOTE (ulfie @ Dec 8 2003, 12:38 PM)</td></tr><tr><td id='QUOTE'><!--QuoteBegin--Meni@Dec 7 2003, 08:48 PM
all the line is, is the point spread that will get equal money bet on both teams
then the bookie/casino makes his 10% vig
Meni hit the nail on the head. All the bookies want are the same number of people betting on the winners that will be betting on the losers. They make their money off the 10% or whatever they charge to make the bet. They pay the winners with the losers money and collect a % from both sides. As long as the amount bet on both sides is equal they make money.

I have a friend that makes his living betting sports. He only bets a few games a week but he bets heavy when he does. All he does is look for point spreads that are out of whack. He's amazing at it but won't share his picks with anyone. :([/b][/quote]
Wow, that sounds crazy to me, but if it works! :bjump: