MikeAI, I was wrong

[wig]

A couple of months ago I said that the market was topping and that the "meat of the move has been seen".

I was wrong! Although the market has not gained much ground since, it has elongated the advance and cycle period and closed at levels that signal another rally into mid 2004.

10,380 - 10,650/DJIA is the target for next year, ideally around July 4th!

Now, in traditional counter intuitive fashion, once the market confirms its' longer-term direction the first reaction is usually counter-trend.

Look for a quick decline in December to set the stage for the next advance!

[Winetalk.com]

from your mouth and into God's ears...I am sitting on "Labret's cash" with no place to go!
;-))

I NEED the drop!
;-)))

[wig]

considering i have been short nazdaq futures for last two months...


I NEED it too! ;-)))

[Monk]

wig.... good article on gold if you are interested.... deals with both fundamental and technical analysis of why gold is going to the moon (alice)

http://www.contraryinvestor.com/mo.htm

[Winetalk.com]

Originally posted by wig@Dec 2 2003, 05:20 PM
considering i have been short nazdaq futures for last two months...


I NEED it too! ;-)))
sitting on cash at 1% is a fucking BITCH!
;-(((

[Diamond Jim]

Wig, what University did you go to that taught you about stock market trends?

[Peaches]

Originally posted by Diamond Jim@Dec 2 2003, 06:24 PM
Wig, what University did you go to that taught you about stock market trends?
:lol:

(I just hope Wig's been following along enough to understand what's behind this question. :P )

[wig]

Originally posted by Monk@Dec 2 2003, 05:21 PM
wig.... good article on gold if you are interested.... deals with both fundamental and technical analysis of why gold is going to the moon (alice)

http://www.contraryinvestor.com/mo.htm
Monk,

Thanks, I will check it out!

Personally, although I am heavily invested in gold and gold derivatives, I believe they are in a consolidaton phase that will last many months.

Long term (being the next (3-5 years) I think gold goes much higher!

[wig]

Originally posted by Serge_Oprano+Dec 2 2003, 05:21 PM--></span><table border='0' align='center' width='95%' cellpadding='3' cellspacing='1'><tr><td>QUOTE (Serge_Oprano @ Dec 2 2003, 05:21 PM)</td></tr><tr><td id='QUOTE'><!--QuoteBegin--wig@Dec 2 2003, 05:20 PM
considering i have been short nazdaq futures for last two months...


I NEED it too! ;-)))
sitting on cash at 1% is a fucking BITCH!
;-((([/b][/quote]
I know. Cash is my largest holding.

I never realised that through all the fall out, having held cash and gold would be so frustrating.

But, the return is there.

[wig]

Originally posted by Diamond Jim@Dec 2 2003, 05:24 PM
Wig, what University did you go to that taught you about stock market trends?
DJ,

I have been studying market action since 1985 when I got into the investment banking business.

My primary focus was interest rates, but I have traded it all and previously owned a commodity brokerage firm as well as an NASD broker/dealer.

I am primarily a technician, focusing most of my study on cycles and the rest on price action and structure.

I have no formal education in economics.

I did take a wresting scholarship to Appalachian State University, but I was more interested in chasing pussy and drinking beer, so that only lasted 1 year. :hic:

[Winetalk.com]

Originally posted by wig@Dec 2 2003, 05:57 PM
but I was more interested in chasing pussy and drinking beer,
so, FINALLY, something I can understand in Economics!
;-)))

[wig]

Originally posted by Serge_Oprano+Dec 2 2003, 06:00 PM--></span><table border='0' align='center' width='95%' cellpadding='3' cellspacing='1'><tr><td>QUOTE (Serge_Oprano @ Dec 2 2003, 06:00 PM)</td></tr><tr><td id='QUOTE'><!--QuoteBegin--wig@Dec 2 2003, 05:57 PM
but I was more interested in chasing pussy and drinking beer,
so, FINALLY, something I can understand in Economics!
;-)))[/b][/quote]
Yes! and almost all of us here have parlayed that economic opportunity into cash!

God Bless America and Labret! :salute:

[Diamond Jim]

Originally posted by wig+Dec 2 2003, 05:57 PM--></span><table border='0' align='center' width='95%' cellpadding='3' cellspacing='1'><tr><td>QUOTE (wig @ Dec 2 2003, 05:57 PM)</td></tr><tr><td id='QUOTE'><!--QuoteBegin--Diamond Jim@Dec 2 2003, 05:24 PM
Wig, what University did you go to that taught you about stock market trends?
DJ,

I have been studying market action since 1985 when I got into the investment banking business.

My primary focus was interest rates, but I have traded it all and previously owned a commodity brokerage firm as well as an NASD broker/dealer.

I am primarily a technician, focusing most of my study on cycles and the rest on price action and structure.

I have no formal education in economics.

I did take a wresting scholarship to Appalachian State University, but I was more interested in chasing pussy and drinking beer, so that only lasted 1 year. :hic:[/b][/quote]
I'm confused.

We've been led to believe that the fount of all knowledge rests in the scholarly hands of those institutions of higher learning.

You learned on your own? By studying?

How odd.

[Forest]

Originally posted by wig+Dec 2 2003, 05:57 PM--></span><table border='0' align='center' width='95%' cellpadding='3' cellspacing='1'><tr><td>QUOTE (wig @ Dec 2 2003, 05:57 PM)</td></tr><tr><td id='QUOTE'><!--QuoteBegin--Diamond Jim@Dec 2 2003, 05:24 PM
Wig, what University did you go to that taught you about stock market trends?
DJ,

I have been studying market action since 1985 when I got into the investment banking business.

My primary focus was interest rates, but I have traded it all and previously owned a commodity brokerage firm as well as an NASD broker/dealer.

I am primarily a technician, focusing most of my study on cycles and the rest on price action and structure.

I have no formal education in economics.

I did take a wresting scholarship to Appalachian State University, but I was more interested in chasing pussy and drinking beer, so that only lasted 1 year. :hic:[/b][/quote]
so i take it you had a problem makeing weight

[Winetalk.com]

Originally posted by wig+Dec 2 2003, 06:03 PM--></span><table border='0' align='center' width='95%' cellpadding='3' cellspacing='1'><tr><td>QUOTE (wig @ Dec 2 2003, 06:03 PM)</td></tr><tr><td id='QUOTE'>Originally posted by -Serge_Oprano@Dec 2 2003, 06:00 PM
<!--QuoteBegin--wig@Dec 2 2003, 05:57 PM
but I was more interested in chasing pussy and drinking beer,
so, FINALLY, something I can understand in Economics!
;-)))
Yes! and almost all of us here have parlayed that economic opportunity into cash!

God Bless America and Labret! :salute:[/b][/quote]
hahahahaha,
yeap
;-))))

meanwhile...FAO Shwartz, the most famous toy store in America, with University trained monkeys at the helm,
filed for bancrupcy...SECOND time this year
;-))))

[wig]

Originally posted by Diamond Jim+Dec 2 2003, 06:04 PM--></span><table border='0' align='center' width='95%' cellpadding='3' cellspacing='1'><tr><td>QUOTE (Diamond Jim @ Dec 2 2003, 06:04 PM)</td></tr><tr><td id='QUOTE'>Originally posted by -wig@Dec 2 2003, 05:57 PM
<!--QuoteBegin--Diamond Jim@Dec 2 2003, 05:24 PM
Wig, what University did you go to that taught you about stock market trends?
DJ,

I have been studying market action since 1985 when I got into the investment banking business.

My primary focus was interest rates, but I have traded it all and previously owned a commodity brokerage firm as well as an NASD broker/dealer.

I am primarily a technician, focusing most of my study on cycles and the rest on price action and structure.

I have no formal education in economics.

I did take a wresting scholarship to Appalachian State University, but I was more interested in chasing pussy and drinking beer, so that only lasted 1 year. :hic:
I'm confused.

We've been led to believe that the fount of all knowledge rests in the scholarly hands of those institutions of higher learning.

You learned on your own? By studying?

How odd.[/b][/quote]
In my best Yoda voice....

"There is no cannot. There is either do or do not."

:P

[wig]

Originally posted by Forest@Dec 2 2003, 06:05 PM

so i take it you had a problem makeing weight
I cut weight for years and finally I got tired of it.

Plus, I was ready to get out into the world and prove myself like the cocky 19 year old that I was.

Little did I know.

[Monk]

Originally posted by wig@Dec 2 2003, 05:47 PM


Personally, although I am heavily invested in gold and gold derivatives, I believe they are in a consolidaton phase that will last many months.

Long term (being the next (3-5 years) I think gold goes much higher!
I agree. I am taking a bunch off the table in this latest runup in gold / gold stocks... we are nearing significant resistance for both and they need a rest.

[slavdogg]

Market is gonna keep moving up slowly through the end of the year, and than a 5% correction in Jan or in April for sure.

[slavdogg]

Originally posted by Serge_Oprano@Dec 2 2003, 06:09 PM
meanwhile...FAO Shwartz, the most famous toy store in America, with University trained monkeys at the helm,
filed for bancrupcy...SECOND time this year
;-))))
they closed their store in San Fran
now i have no where to buy myself toys :(

[Monk]

Originally posted by slavdogg@Dec 2 2003, 07:25 PM

they closed their store in San Fran
now i have no where to buy myself toys :(
her ya go slav.....

http://www.realdoll.com

[Mike AI]

One day you will have to give me some lessons in the technical side.

I am more of a feel kind of guy, and look at certain indicators. People want the economy to do well ( except democrats this year) So if they see things moving, it helps move the economy forward. Momentum is a powerful thing.

[wig]

Originally posted by Mike AI@Dec 3 2003, 05:13 PM
One day you will have to give me some lessons in the technical side.

I am more of a feel kind of guy, and look at certain indicators. People want the economy to do well ( except democrats this year) So if they see things moving, it helps move the economy forward. Momentum is a powerful thing.
Mike,

I am always willing to share what I have learned over the years.

As Serge and I have discussed, perception and execution are two different skills, therefore; I have no holy grail to hold on to. ;-))

If you look at the equity markets historically, you will see that they are not in perfect tandem with the economy. What is good for business may not always carry over to your equity portfolio.

Correlating the two will only lead to disappointment IMO.

[MattK]

Originally posted by wig@Dec 2 2003, 02:20 PM
considering i have been short nazdaq futures for last two months...


I NEED it too! ;-)))

ditto, except I was shorting the nasdaq 100. November was actually a pretty
good month for me since I started neutral and turned bearish around
the nov 7th high, but last week I lost 1/2 of the month's profit in 2 days :unsure:

I think gold is headed lower, right now the sentiment spread between bullish
speculators and commercial shorts is very high, every time this has happened
in the past the commercials shorts have won and gold declined until people
became less bullish.

Same with housing prices, when you see those infomercials saying anyone
can make money buying and selling houses (sometimes with no money
down) and with everyone insisting real estate will never go down, that is a good
sign a top is near.

Another reason to be bearish stocks is the very high level of insider
selling over the past few months. CEOs and company officers are selling
their own companies' stock like crazy and the lemmings keep on buying them.



Last edited by MattK at Dec 3 2003, 06:35 PM

[wig]

Originally posted by MattK+Dec 3 2003, 09:34 PM--></span><table border='0' align='center' width='95%' cellpadding='3' cellspacing='1'><tr><td>QUOTE (MattK @ Dec 3 2003, 09:34 PM)</td></tr><tr><td id='QUOTE'><!--QuoteBegin--wig@Dec 2 2003, 02:20 PM
considering i have been short nazdaq futures for last two months...


I NEED it too! ;-)))

ditto, except I was shorting the nasdaq 100. November was actually a pretty
good month for me since I started neutral and turned bearish around
the nov 7th high, but last week I lost 1/2 of the month's profit in 2 days :unsure:

I think gold is headed lower, right now the sentiment spread between bullish
speculators and commercial shorts is very high, every time this has happened
in the past the commercials shorts have won and gold declined until people
became less bullish.

Same with housing prices, when you see those infomercials saying anyone
can make money buying and selling houses (sometimes with no money
down) and with everyone insisting real estate will never go down, that is a good
sign a top is near.

Another reason to be bearish stocks is the very high level of insider
selling over the past few months. CEOs and company officers are selling
their own companies' stock like crazy and the lemmings keep on buying them.[/b][/quote]
MattK,

All of this may be true, but NONE of it matters in trading.

Timing is everything and the observations you have made provide no timing, only reason to suspect change that could be tomorrow or next month.

In between, fortunes are lost and made.

btw, how do you short the naz 100? do you mean QQQ?

[MattK]

Originally posted by wig+Dec 3 2003, 06:38 PM--></span><table border='0' align='center' width='95%' cellpadding='3' cellspacing='1'><tr><td>QUOTE (wig @ Dec 3 2003, 06:38 PM)</td></tr><tr><td id='QUOTE'>Originally posted by -MattK@Dec 3 2003, 09:34 PM
<!--QuoteBegin--wig@Dec 2 2003, 02:20 PM
considering i have been short nazdaq futures for last two months...


I NEED it too! �;-)))

ditto, except I was shorting the nasdaq 100. November was actually a pretty
good month for me since I started neutral and turned bearish around
the nov 7th high, but last week I lost 1/2 of the month's profit in 2 days :unsure:

I think gold is headed lower, right now the sentiment spread between bullish
speculators and commercial shorts is very high, every time this has happened
in the past the commercials shorts have won and gold declined until people
became less bullish.

Same with housing prices, when you see those infomercials saying anyone
can make money buying and selling houses (sometimes with no money
down) and with everyone insisting real estate will never go down, that is a good
sign a top is near.

Another reason to be bearish stocks is the very high level of insider
selling over the past few months. CEOs and company officers are selling
their own companies' stock like crazy and the lemmings keep on buying them.
MattK,

All of this may be true, but NONE of it matters in trading.

Timing is everything and the observations you have made provide no timing, only reason to suspect change that could be tomorrow or next month.

In between, fortunes are lost and made.

btw, how do you short the naz 100? do you mean QQQ?[/b][/quote]

I use the profunds inverse funds, there is one called ultra short OTC (symbol: USPIX) it tries to be double the inverse of the nasdaq 100 each day, they have similar funds for the dow and S&P and funds for many industry sectors.

As far as timing, I do not day trade individual stocks or switch index funds more than once or twice a week. I picked the right day to turn bearish the nasdaq after it recently made a head-and-shoulders topping pattern, so there are some short term indicators I look for.

Right now I am reading "Technical Analysis of Stock Trends, 8th Edition". I also noticed your buddy Bob has a new version of his book out "Conquer the Crash: You Can Survive and Prosper in a Deflationary Depression, Expanded and Updated Edition" by Robert R. Prechter available on amazon.com