First downs

[Almighty Colin]

http://www.twominutewarning.com/mb1.htm

So far this year ...

Indianapolis picks up the next first down 72.1% of the time.
Tampa Bay gives up a first down only 46.7% of the time.

I can multiply ...

The odds of getting three first downs in a row against the Bucs is only 10%.

[DrGuile]

But does it really say all that much?

Isnt W-L the only stats that really matter?

Just for example, a team that gets a major lead in the first half will always give up a lot of first downs when they switch to a Prevent defense, etc...


It always makes me laugh when they pull stats that show team that run for a 100 yards or more in the game win very often, and vice-versa.

Well DUH einsten, when a team gets a lead, they will pound the run until time runs out. While if they are loosing, they will go to the air and abandon the running game.

Is it "Teams that run wins" or "Team that are winning, run"





Last edited by DrGuile at Oct 1 2003, 02:50 PM

[Jesse_DD]

Colin - write one of those little programs of yours and figure out how well this worked out for determining a winner (for all of last year). If you find anything don't tell anyone but me and we'll go to vegas next week.

[Almighty Colin]

Originally posted by DrGuile@Oct 1 2003, 02:48 PM
Is it "Teams that run wins" or "Team that are winning, run"
Yup. I've always thought that too. Teams that are winning run more than the other way around.

Now as to the question as to whether it means anything. Won/lost record itself is only a fair measure of team strength since strength of schedule can easily be worth a few wins or losses.

What statistic would best rate offenses? Points scored? That's too influenced by field position. Yards per game? Too influenced by defensive performance (Teams with good defenses get the ball more). I think first down conversion percentage is pretty good especially when combined with other factors.

[Almighty Colin]

Originally posted by Jesse_DD@Oct 1 2003, 02:57 PM
Colin - write one of those little programs of yours and figure out how well this worked out for determining a winner (for all of last year). If you find anything don't tell anyone but me and we'll go to vegas next week.
Already done. Check your mail. ;-)