South Floridians.

[Almighty Colin]

Coming to our neighborhood? We'll see.

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/track...00313_5day.html (http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at200313_5day.html)

[Peaches]

Originally posted by Colin@Sep 7 2003, 07:55 PM
Coming to our neighborhood? We'll see.

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/track...00313_5day.html (http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at200313_5day.html)
When I lived in Jax, I had a dog (pug B) ) named Isabella. Coincidence? I don't THINK so! You're doomed. :P

You're the meteorologist - make a prediction! :nyanya:

[Almighty Colin]

Originally posted by Peaches+Sep 7 2003, 06:58 PM--></span><table border='0' align='center' width='95%' cellpadding='3' cellspacing='1'><tr><td>QUOTE (Peaches @ Sep 7 2003, 06:58 PM)</td></tr><tr><td id='QUOTE'><!--QuoteBegin--Colin@Sep 7 2003, 07:55 PM
Coming to our neighborhood? We'll see.

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/track...00313_5day.html (http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at200313_5day.html)
When I lived in Jax, I had a dog (pug B) ) named Isabella. Coincidence? I don't THINK so! You're doomed. :P

You're the meteorologist - make a prediction! :nyanya:[/b][/quote]
The average error in 5 day hurricane position forecasts (in the link above) is about 450 miles. Isabel is still more than a week from the US mainland. That would take some real guessing. Odds against would be much higher than odds for.

The worrisome part for Floridians is that a subtropical ridge is building westward across the Atlantic and it might even build across the Bahamas and Florida. This is an area of high pressure which would tend to keep the storm from turning North like Fabian did.

We'll see.



Last edited by Colin at Sep 10 2003, 04:25 AM

[Almighty Colin]

Also, another storm coming off Africa will possibly become a depression in the next day. Hurricane season heating up.

[photogregg]

Hmmm, Remember the movie Storm Chasers...I loved it.

When I lived in Alabama I tied myself to a telephone pole with my camera while a tornado zapped us...loved the rush and got awesome pics.

How about StormFuckers.com for the next reality site?

hahahaha

[Winetalk.com]

fuck! and I gotta be on the plane next Monday
;-(((

[Almighty Colin]

Originally posted by Serge_Oprano@Sep 7 2003, 10:08 PM
fuck! and I gotta be on the plane next Monday
;-(((
Where are you going?

Isabella now at 105 mph. May be in "rapid deeping mode". Forecast to hit 130 mph within 48 hours.

[Winetalk.com]

Originally posted by Colin+Sep 8 2003, 04:46 AM--></span><table border='0' align='center' width='95%' cellpadding='3' cellspacing='1'><tr><td>QUOTE (Colin @ Sep 8 2003, 04:46 AM)</td></tr><tr><td id='QUOTE'><!--QuoteBegin--Serge_Oprano@Sep 7 2003, 10:08 PM
fuck! and I gotta be on the plane next Monday
;-(((
Where are you going?

Isabella now at 105 mph. May be in "rapid deeping mode". Forecast to hit 130 mph within 48 hours.[/b][/quote]
7 days in Rome, 5 days in Florence and 2 days in Milan...

I missed
"Our delicious sautéed zucchini flowers with ricotta cheese and a delicate pesto"
http://www.nabucco.it/menueng.htm

YOU fuck with hurricanes,
I am out of here
;-))))

[Almighty Colin]

Category 3. Could become a 4 later today.

[Peaches]

Originally posted by Colin@Sep 8 2003, 10:19 AM
Category 3. Could become a 4 later today.
Head for the hills! Party in Ellijay! :bjump:

[Winetalk.com]

getting closer and closer....

[Almighty Colin]

Originally posted by Serge_Oprano@Sep 9 2003, 06:49 AM
getting closer and closer....
I became the first person in South Florida to pick up some hurricane supplies yesterday. Figured I didn't want to be @ Home Depot waiting in a 188 person line to get the last role of tape and pack of batteries. Just in case. ;-)

[voodooman]

This will be my first hurricane, Been through some of the worst tornadoes,
one earchquake, one divorce, but never a hurricane.

[dantheman]

guess I'll wait a week or so before I head down :(

[voodooman]

Originally posted by dantheman@Sep 9 2003, 07:21 AM
guess I'll wait a week or so before I head down :(
Come on down,

We can hang out at Serge's house during the storm.

I know his passcode for his alarm system, we'll have
a hurricane party, and he will never even know it was
us that wrecked his house due to the destruction of
of the storm.

:D

[Dianna Vesta]

They say that it will be a bad season for them. I believe it.

[dantheman]

Originally posted by voodooman+Sep 9 2003, 08:28 AM--></span><table border='0' align='center' width='95%' cellpadding='3' cellspacing='1'><tr><td>QUOTE (voodooman @ Sep 9 2003, 08:28 AM)</td></tr><tr><td id='QUOTE'><!--QuoteBegin--dantheman@Sep 9 2003, 07:21 AM
guess I'll wait a week or so before I head down :(
Come on down,

We can hang out at Serge's house during the storm.

I know his passcode for his alarm system, we'll have
a hurricane party, and he will never even know it was
us that wrecked his house due to the destruction of
of the storm.

:D[/b][/quote]
I'm waiting for serge,umm i mean the hurricane to leave before I head down :P

Voodooman, I'll be down later this month :rokk:

[Dianna Vesta]

Originally posted by Serge_Oprano@Sep 8 2003, 05:12 AM
I missed
"Our delicious sautéed zucchini flowers with ricotta cheese and a delicate pesto"
http://www.nabucco.it/menueng.htm

Oh yum. I grow lots of zucchini and love to cook the flowers. We always fried them but this sound really yummy.

Pumpkin flowers are good too. Have you ever had fiddle heads? They are the new beginnings of those ferns that grow wild in the woods. They look like a boston fern. When the frost leaves you go out and pick them just as they are coming up. Timing is important.

Then sautee in garlic, butter and olive oil. Sometimes I'll sprinkle a little feta.

Damn I'm hungry. You can buy them frozen but it's not the same.

[Winetalk.com]

DV, you can feed me at ANY time!
;-))))

[Dianna Vesta]

Originally posted by Serge_Oprano@Sep 9 2003, 08:41 AM
DV, you can feed me at ANY time!
;-))))
well Serge we're clearing land, meeting with Zoning and Planning for the cabins today, by oct will be digging out the gardens and growing a bunch of stuff. I'll keep you posted once I know when flowers are coming up. I eat a lot of exotic things I can find in the woods. I have some land in MO, in the Ozarks and can make a whole meal down there; fresh creek crawdads, wild greens and garlic, mushrooms... hmm and don't forget the fish. Just bring olive oil, balsalmic, spices, bread crumbs.

I'm going to Panama in Nov to look at land in the Bocas. I'm not sure what th hell to eat on a remote island other then seafood.

[Winetalk.com]

Originally posted by Dianna Vesta@Sep 9 2003, 09:34 AM
I'm not sure what th hell to eat on a remote island other then seafood.
Pussy can be a good alternative for a balanced diet!!!
;-)))

[Dianna Vesta]

Originally posted by Serge_Oprano+Sep 9 2003, 09:49 AM--></span><table border='0' align='center' width='95%' cellpadding='3' cellspacing='1'><tr><td>QUOTE (Serge_Oprano @ Sep 9 2003, 09:49 AM)</td></tr><tr><td id='QUOTE'><!--QuoteBegin--Dianna Vesta@Sep 9 2003, 09:34 AM
I'm not sure what th hell to eat on a remote island other then seafood.
Pussy can be a good alternative for a balanced diet!!!
;-)))[/b][/quote]
Yea my girlfriend tells me that all the time. I stopped eating meat and occasionally some cheese and seafood. Every morning when I make these protein shakes she gives me that look.

I figure I get more protein these days then I did when I ate beef!
:yowsa: :bjump: :cdance:

[voodooman]

Originally posted by Dianna Vesta+Sep 9 2003, 08:55 AM--></span><table border='0' align='center' width='95%' cellpadding='3' cellspacing='1'><tr><td>QUOTE (Dianna Vesta @ Sep 9 2003, 08:55 AM)</td></tr><tr><td id='QUOTE'>Originally posted by -Serge_Oprano@Sep 9 2003, 09:49 AM
<!--QuoteBegin--Dianna Vesta@Sep 9 2003, 09:34 AM
I'm not sure what th hell to eat on a remote island other then seafood.
Pussy can be a good alternative for a balanced diet!!!
;-)))
Yea my girlfriend tells me that all the time. I stopped eating meat and occasionally some cheese and seafood. Every morning when I make these protein shakes she gives me that look.

I figure I get more protein these days then I did when I ate beef!
:yowsa: :bjump: :cdance:[/b][/quote]
This can all be changed with one simple word. Please.

:zoinks:

[Almighty Colin]

Choose a color.

http://www.linkification.com/linked/isabel.gif

[Almighty Colin]

http://www.linkification.com/linked/izzy.gif

[Winetalk.com]

seems like leaving Miami won't be a problem on Monday...coming back can be another story all together
;_)))

should I put banner on my house:
"Gone with the wind" to make ID of it easier?
;-))))

[Forest]

My house is CBS with a solid roof and plenty of interior space

Party At my place if this thing comes ashore here

But im not worried...

It will go east or west with the upper level winds over the florida straits

almost always does

I was in the keys for andrew...

we got almost nothin and homstead (130 miles away) got leveled

[Kittyfuzz]

I heard last night that it might be moving back out to see. Is this true or are we still in a bad position for this baby? Even though I am in Central, we still get some ugly shit from these storms, and occassionally, get hit. Just curious as to if I should be at Home Depot myself!!

[Almighty Colin]

Originally posted by Kittyfuzz@Sep 10 2003, 10:25 AM
I heard last night that it might be moving back out to see. Is this true or are we still in a bad position for this baby? Even though I am in Central, we still get some ugly shit from these storms, and occassionally, get hit. Just curious as to if I should be at Home Depot myself!!
No one knows. Anyone that says so is guessing. Average error in a National Hurricane center prediction for 5 days is about 200 miles [correction: 400 miles] This storm is still more than a week from the SE US coast.

There are certainly some conditions that are leading to a POSSIBLE Florida landfall. One of the long-term computer models brings Isabel into SE Florida and then North towards Orlando. That being said, such predictions are very premature and there is a whole lot of "If this happens .. if that happens" conditions first. This is why the National Hurricane Center doesn't make predictions past 5 days. Way too much error in the models that far out.

If you are in central florida, there's no point in getting any supplies until someone says to. I used to live in Orlando. The runs on supplies inland aren't too bad.



Last edited by Colin at Sep 11 2003, 04:23 AM

[Winetalk.com]

historical maps..

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/track...0313_climo.html (http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at200313_climo.html)

[Almighty Colin]

Originally posted by Serge_Oprano@Sep 10 2003, 10:54 AM
historical maps..

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/track...0313_climo.html (http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at200313_climo.html)
Yup. Note there have been hardly any hurricanes located where Isabel currently is that have gone on to impact the US. However, if Isabel follows the predicted track it will be exactly where Andrew was on August 20, 1992.

It doesn't seem like there is much of a chance of Isabel drifting too far off that path in the next few days as there is a strong high pressure to her North that is getting stronger and blocking movement to the North.

[Almighty Colin]

Originally posted by Forest@Sep 10 2003, 09:14 AM
But im not worried...

It will go east or west with the upper level winds over the florida straits

almost always does

I was in the keys for andrew...

we got almost nothin and homstead (130 miles away) got leveled
Sure, one storm and so many miles of coast. Any storm will only dramatically impact a small area. If you're in it, it's the worst possible situation. If you're outside it, it seems like you are always being missed.

[Almighty Colin]

Looks to me that Isabel will be a bit stronger in the next advisory in a few hours. Maybe 140+ mph.

Not certain. Been trying to learn the technique the NHC uses for estimating storm intensity. I'm an amateur ;-)

[Dianna Vesta]

Maybe I better go pull my stuff (RV) out of Key Largo? There been a lot of storms, even Andrew that hit Florida but sweep right around the Keys.

I'm an hour East of Fort Myers. If it whips around up into the Gulf it's got to make a pretty sharp turn inland but I've seen them sweep right up the coast.

[Almighty Colin]

Originally posted by Colin@Sep 10 2003, 01:12 PM
Looks to me that Isabel will be a bit stronger in the next advisory in a few hours. Maybe 140+ mph.
Nailed it. I guess I should retire at 1 for 1.

"Maximum sustained winds are now near 140 mph."

"These intensity estimates easily justify increasing the intensity to 120 kt for this advisory. It is quite possible that Isabel is a little stronger than the advisory intensity indicates"

[Almighty Colin]

X nm



Last edited by Colin at Sep 11 2003, 03:15 AM

[Almighty Colin]

We're at a crucial point here.

Most of the computer models have Isabel East of the Bahamas and at a latitude even with South Florida 5 days from now. 5 days is the maximum time these models are reasonable.

At about 5 days, at the edge of the model guidance, a ridge of high pressure is expected to develop over the western Atlantic. Will it block Isabel from moving North? Recon will fly in and around the storm for the first time in the next 24 hours and more data will improve forecast.

Much error in 5 day forecasts but I suspect Isabel will not directly hit South Florida.



Last edited by Colin at Sep 11 2003, 04:27 AM

[Winetalk.com]

Originally posted by Colin@Sep 11 2003, 04:07 AM
We're at a crucial point here.

Most of the computer models have Isabel East of the Bahamas and at a latitude even with South Florida 5 days from now. 5 days is the maximum time these models are reasonable.

At about 5 days, at the edge of the model guidance, a ridge of high pressure is expected to develop over the western Atlantic. Will it block Isabel from moving North? Recon will fly in and around the storm for the first time in the next 24 hours and more data will improve forecast.

Much error in 5 day forecasts but I suspect Isabel will not directly hit South Florida.
Colin, the way it's curves, it can hit New York

[Almighty Colin]

I think we'll see 150+ in the next advisory. Getting close to category 5.

If you look at these infrared photos, you'll see the increased symmetry of the high cloud tops (red circle) around the eye. This means Isabel is strengthening. Pics taken about 6 hours apart.

[6 hours ago]
http://www.linkification.com/linked/izzy1.gif

[Now]
http://www.linkification.com/linked/izzy2.gif



Last edited by Colin at Sep 11 2003, 07:04 AM

[Winetalk.com]

it looked like pacman 6 hours ago...

[Forest]

Originally posted by Serge_Oprano@Sep 11 2003, 04:50 AM
the way it's curves, it can hit New York
gee

we were JUST talking about that

they are WAY over due

I remember Hurricane Belle in the 70's

was fun as a Kid...nothing but a mess as an adult

we had 4 feet of water in the basement

then I spent 2 nights in a Moving van from Gloria in the 80's

watched SOO many near hits in the late 80's early 90's in the keys

This could be the Perfect Storm

[Almighty Colin]

150 mph.

[Winetalk.com]

Originally posted by Colin@Sep 11 2003, 09:07 AM
150 mph.
NOW I get it how Toto got to Kansas!
;_)))

[Almighty Colin]

Originally posted by Serge_Oprano+Sep 11 2003, 09:23 AM--></span><table border='0' align='center' width='95%' cellpadding='3' cellspacing='1'><tr><td>QUOTE (Serge_Oprano @ Sep 11 2003, 09:23 AM)</td></tr><tr><td id='QUOTE'><!--QuoteBegin--Colin@Sep 11 2003, 09:07 AM
150 mph.
NOW I get it how Toto got to Kansas!
;_)))[/b][/quote]
haha.

[*KK*]

One big reason for me to move from the East Coast to Az -- my last year in NC we got popped 3 times, though none too badly, with hurricanes, and that was about par for the course.

We have no earthquakes, no tornadoes, no hurricanes, no mosquitoes and God knows no humidity in Phoenix :)

As soon as the 'big one' splits Cali off and its a floating island, we'll have beachfront property here too, beat that! ;)

[Peaches]

Originally posted by *KK*@Sep 11 2003, 02:06 PM
We have no earthquakes, no tornadoes, no hurricanes, no mosquitoes and God knows no humidity in Phoenix :)

NO MOSQUITOES??!! I'm there!!! :okthumb:

[*KK*]

I will leave teh light on for you Peachie baby, and there still won't be mosquitoes!

[Dianna Vesta]

Originally posted by *KK*@Sep 11 2003, 01:06 PM
One big reason for me to move from the East Coast to Az -- my last year in NC we got popped 3 times, though none too badly, with hurricanes, and that was about par for the course.

We have no earthquakes, no tornadoes, no hurricanes, no mosquitoes and God knows no humidity in Phoenix :)

As soon as the 'big one' splits Cali off and its a floating island, we'll have beachfront property here too, beat that! ;)
You're too funny. Cute.

AZ also doesn't have much water, not enough trees and everyone knows all the hot chicks are in CA and FLA.

[voodooman]

Thats right D.

All the hot chics, or what is there dont even leave their air
conditioned houses/apartments until late at night since
its so freaking HOT there.