MattD, how much are you losing with your shorts ?

[Winetalk.com]

told ya!
;-)))

[MattK]

It's MattK :D

I lost about 22% since the rally started in April. I am out of stock short
funds now until s&p 500 goes back below 960. I was short bonds but
they have been mixed recently, and are due for a comeback.

bad things will happen for the economy once the Dow goes below
7000 again.

:ph34r:



Last edited by MattK at Sep 2 2003, 03:25 PM

[Winetalk.com]

sorry, Matt,
yopu postr rarely,
\I misspleed your name because of it
;-(

[MattK]

Originally posted by Serge_Oprano@Sep 2 2003, 03:28 PM
sorry, Matt,
yopu postr rarely,
\I misspleed your name because of it
;-(

no prob.

I remember Wig posted here a while ago saying markets could
"have an accident" when the s&p 500 gets below a certain level.

Perhaps he could give us an update on his prognosis B)

[wig]

Woo Hoo!

I am selling the S&P futures short at 928-940/SPU!

Thank you Matt for my sell signal! j/k

[wig]

Originally posted by MattK+Sep 2 2003, 03:33 PM--></span><table border='0' align='center' width='95%' cellpadding='3' cellspacing='1'><tr><td>QUOTE (MattK @ Sep 2 2003, 03:33 PM)</td></tr><tr><td id='QUOTE'><!--QuoteBegin--Serge_Oprano@Sep 2 2003, 03:28 PM
sorry, Matt,
yopu postr rarely,
\I misspleed your name because of it
;-(

no prob.

I remember Wig posted here a while ago saying markets could
"have an accident" when the s&p 500 gets below a certain level.

Perhaps he could give us an update on his prognosis B)[/b][/quote]
And just to clarify, the levels I cited were not violated and no longer exist as a point of reference.


Currently, I still expect to see a decline followed by another rally into early 2004. Whether this rally is a higher or lower high I am uncertain.

I will say that fore the most part, the rally is over. The risk is to the downside.

MikeAI, now is the time to get out! :D

[MattK]

Originally posted by wig@Sep 2 2003, 03:37 PM

Currently, I still expect to see a decline followed by another rally into early 2004. Whether this rally is a higher or lower high I am uncertain.

I will say that fore the most part, the rally is over. The risk is to the downside.


wow! that was fast.

risk is to the downside, but we have been getting these
surprise rallies that come out of nowhere on low volume.

since 1996, August is usually a down month for stocks
but this year they were up.

[Winetalk.com]

Originally posted by MattK+Sep 2 2003, 03:47 PM--></span><table border='0' align='center' width='95%' cellpadding='3' cellspacing='1'><tr><td>QUOTE (MattK @ Sep 2 2003, 03:47 PM)</td></tr><tr><td id='QUOTE'><!--QuoteBegin--wig@Sep 2 2003, 03:37 PM

Currently, I still expect to see a decline followed by another rally into early 2004. Whether this rally is a higher or lower high I am uncertain.

I will say that fore the most part, the rally is over. The risk is to the downside.


wow! that was fast.

risk is to the downside, but we have been getting these
surprise rallies that come out of nowhere on low volume.

since 1996, August is usually a down month for stocks
but this year they were up.[/b][/quote]
gotta be a reason why they are up...I guess everybody expects them to be down and...as we know, market NEVERR does what everybody expect it to do
;-))

side note....
3 hedge funds I have sent papers offering to sell portion of the fund ..on Oct 1st,
they NEVER done it before,
only twice a year prior to this offering...

WHY?

what do THEY expect?

[Mike AI]

MikeAI, now is the time to get out!

Would that be all stocks? Anything opinion on bonds? REITS?

For securities I am up 9.65% for the year.

For REITS I am up 19.84% and that is after liquidating CPJ which I made 45% on.

Bonds I have not done to well on, I am down 2.85% for the year.... but I did sell OTCM and made 33% - Thanks to Serge who put me onto them.
OF course the way my luck goes, its now up 42.11% - but as Serge says, I will never go broke taking 25% and pcoketing it.

[Winetalk.com]

Originally posted by Mike AI@Sep 2 2003, 03:55 PM
MikeAI, now is the time to get out!

Would that be all stocks? Anything opinion on bonds? REITS?

For securities I am up 9.65% for the year.

For REITS I am up 19.84% and that is after liquidating CPJ which I made 45% on.

Bonds I have not done to well on, I am down 2.85% for the year.... but I did sell OTCM and made 33% - Thanks to Serge who put me onto them.
OF course the way my luck goes, its now up 42.11% - but as Serge says, I will never go broke taking 25% and pcoketing it.
25% and you complaining????
;-))

I am only up 4.9% for the year....
but after paying taxes and all living expences
;-))))

do you see me comlaining????

I gotta take you to Peru and DO leave you at Leper Colony!
;-)))))

[Mike AI]

Serge I saw your post, that looks to be an exciting trip - Katie and I would definately be interested in going if times work out well.

[Winetalk.com]

Originally posted by Mike AI@Sep 2 2003, 04:18 PM
Serge I saw your post, that looks to be an exciting trip - Katie and I would definately be interested in going if times work out well.
Mike,
I am very excited!

plus....I intend to give seminar one of those nites:
"My strugle with Lensman over $1000 bet",
thus qualifying it for...
Business Educational Trip!
;-)))

we ARE flexable on dates,
let's do it!

[Mike AI]

When I get back to NO I can look over my calander....

BTW I am back in Tampa.... at least for 10 days or so....

Sig, Noah, and Matt are heading in Friday for a fact finding mission... New project from the boys at InterCosmos....

:zoinks:

[Winetalk.com]

Originally posted by Mike AI@Sep 2 2003, 04:28 PM
When I get back to NO I can look over my calander....

BTW I am back in Tampa.... at least for 10 days or so....

Sig, Noah, and Matt are heading in Friday for a fact finding mission... New project from the boys at InterCosmos....

:zoinks:
darn!

you ARE a busy bee
;-(((

I guess we'll have to take Katie alone, poor she
;-))))

if we haven't just came back-
we'd pay you guys a a visit,
guess we'll have to wait 'till November
;-((((

[Mike AI]

Originally posted by Serge_Oprano+Sep 2 2003, 04:30 PM--></span><table border='0' align='center' width='95%' cellpadding='3' cellspacing='1'><tr><td>QUOTE (Serge_Oprano @ Sep 2 2003, 04:30 PM)</td></tr><tr><td id='QUOTE'><!--QuoteBegin--Mike AI@Sep 2 2003, 04:28 PM
When I get back to NO I can look over my calander....

BTW I am back in Tampa.... at least for 10 days or so....

Sig, Noah, and Matt are heading in Friday for a fact finding mission... New project from the boys at InterCosmos....

:zoinks:
darn!

you ARE a busy bee
;-(((

I guess we'll have to take Katie alone, poor she
;-))))

if we haven't just came back-
we'd pay you guys a a visit,
guess we'll have to wait 'till November
;-(((([/b][/quote]
October, November ..... its all good. We will be in Tampa a lot.....

[wig]

Originally posted by Mike AI@Sep 2 2003, 03:55 PM
MikeAI, now is the time to get out!

Would that be all stocks? Anything opinion on bonds? REITS?

For securities I am up 9.65% for the year.

For REITS I am up 19.84% and that is after liquidating CPJ which I made 45% on.

Bonds I have not done to well on, I am down 2.85% for the year.... but I did sell OTCM and made 33% - Thanks to Serge who put me onto them.
OF course the way my luck goes, its now up 42.11% - but as Serge says, I will never go broke taking 25% and pcoketing it.
Mike,

Overall equities (DJIA, S&P, Nasdaq). Longer term player should sell into this strength and go elsewhere with the cash.

The meat of the rally is complete.

[Monk]

Still loving those gold stocks!!

[wig]

Originally posted by Monk@Sep 2 2003, 06:17 PM
Still loving those gold stocks!!
:okthumb:

Monk, what's your opinion on stock indexes?

[Monk]

Originally posted by wig+Sep 2 2003, 06:19 PM--></span><table border='0' align='center' width='95%' cellpadding='3' cellspacing='1'><tr><td>QUOTE (wig @ Sep 2 2003, 06:19 PM)</td></tr><tr><td id='QUOTE'><!--QuoteBegin--Monk@Sep 2 2003, 06:17 PM
Still loving those gold stocks!!
:okthumb:

Monk, what's your opinion on stock indexes?[/b][/quote]
Indexes just broke out of their trading range, so wouldn't be surprised to see them go up a couple more weeks..... maybe SP500 1060-1070 and Nasdaq 2000-ish.

I had been expecting the markets to get turned back at the right shoulder of the Head and Shoulders formation they broke down from... but the price/volume action of the last couple weeks was telling me that wouldn't happen... plus the indexes traded into bullish flag patterns.

I imagine this next upleg will shake out most of the diehard shorts and make room for us to go down. I am waiting to see how things pan out in the next couple weeks and then will reassess..... I'm holding gold stocks though.

I think the recent runup was pretty remarkable but still just a bump in the road to much deeper levels. There were no 90% down volume days that are normally found at market bottoms..... gold's rise is telling us something about inflation (not good for the market)...... looking at the weekly and monthly charts things still look ugly for the longer term.....

[wig]

Monk, remember that article I told you about that I wrote for Futures magazine in 1995? It was about using RSI as a failure swing indicator instead of an overbought / oversold indicator.

Well, we just hit the failure swing level on a monthly basis in all indexes. This means that we are within a month of a top.

Caveat: we could see a downturn followed by another rally to a higher high with a diverging RSI. I actually have this as my primary expectation going into early 2004.

Regardless, a significant correction should take hold by mid month.

[Monk]

Originally posted by wig@Sep 3 2003, 07:44 AM
Monk, remember that article I told you about that I wrote for Futures magazine in 1995? It was about using RSI as a failure swing indicator instead of an overbought / oversold indicator.

Well, we just hit the failure swing level on a monthly basis in all indexes. This means that we are within a month of a top.

Caveat: we could see a downturn followed by another rally to a higher high with a diverging RSI. I actually have this as my primary expectation going into early 2004.

Regardless, a significant correction should take hold by mid month.
That's good to know wig.

I don't expect the market will just crash given all the support it has put beneath it over the last 9 months... so a lower high OR a higher high on negative divergences would make sense. I think this sucker will take awhile to roll over.

Not technical analysis, but I imagine the government will do all that it can to keep the market from crashing as we go into the 2004 presidential elections.