Bush. One, two, or three presidencies?

[Almighty Colin]

http://thomas.loc.gov/cgi-bin/query/z?c108...:H.J.RES.11.IH: (http://thomas.loc.gov/cgi-bin/query/z?c108:H.J.RES.11.IH:)

"Proposing an amendment to the Constitution of the United States to repeal the twenty-second article of amendment, thereby removing the limitation on the number of terms an individual may serve as President."

[PornoDoggy]

Originally posted by Colin@Apr 11 2003, 01:25 PM
http://thomas.loc.gov/cgi-bin/query/z?c108...:H.J.RES.11.IH: (http://thomas.loc.gov/cgi-bin/query/z?c108:H.J.RES.11.IH:)

"Proposing an amendment to the Constitution of the United States to repeal the twenty-second article of amendment, thereby removing the limitation on the number of terms an individual may serve as President."
Wonder what the odds of that passing are?

[Almighty Colin]

Originally posted by PornoDoggy+Apr 11 2003, 01:28 PM--></span><table border='0' align='center' width='95%' cellpadding='3' cellspacing='1'><tr><td>QUOTE (PornoDoggy @ Apr 11 2003, 01:28 PM)</td></tr><tr><td id='QUOTE'><!--QuoteBegin--Colin@Apr 11 2003, 01:25 PM
http://thomas.loc.gov/cgi-bin/query/z?c108...:H.J.RES.11.IH: (http://thomas.loc.gov/cgi-bin/query/z?c108:H.J.RES.11.IH:)

"Proposing an amendment to the Constitution of the United States to repeal the twenty-second article of amendment, thereby removing the limitation on the number of terms an individual may serve as President."
Wonder what the odds of that passing are?[/b][/quote]
Hopefully, close to zero.

[PornoDoggy]

I am not a fan of term limits ... until it comes to the Presidency. Probably one of the most unnoticed things that Truman ever proposed.



Last edited by PornoDoggy at Apr 11 2003, 01:34 PM

[Almighty Colin]

How about for Supreme Court Justices?



Last edited by Colin at Apr 11 2003, 01:38 PM

[JMM]

Getting back to the question posed in the topic..

The answer is ONE.

The problem for George W is that the war in Iraq went too well, too fast. Soon, it will be over...and peoples thougths will turn towards the economy. In case you haven't noticed, the economy is fucked up.

Bill Clinton beat the elder Bush with a simple message brought to him by George Stephanopolous...."it's the economy stupid". Looks like Georgie junior will face the same fate as his father.

[Almighty Colin]

Originally posted by JMM@Apr 11 2003, 01:46 PM
Getting back to the question posed in the topic..

The answer is ONE.

The problem for George W is that the war in Iraq went too well, too fast. Soon, it will be over...and peoples thougths will turn towards the economy. In case you haven't noticed, the economy is fucked up.

Bill Clinton beat the elder Bush with a simple message brought to him by George Stephanopolous...."it's the economy stupid". Looks like Georgie junior will face the same fate as his father.
I think it's way too early to tell.

1. Economy may recover quickly [I personally think this unlikely]
2. Unknown if another Stephanopoulos will step up
3. Bush can counter with Rove
4. Unknown if another Clinton will step up
5. Bush presidency is not over. Plenty of time for either brilliancies or bungling.
6. There's plenty of time for another war

That's a lot of unknowns.



Last edited by Colin at Apr 11 2003, 01:57 PM

[JFK]

Originally posted by JMM@Apr 11 2003, 10:46 AM
Getting back to the question posed in the topic..

The answer is ONE.

The problem for George W is that the war in Iraq went too well, too fast. Soon, it will be over...and peoples thougths will turn towards the economy. In case you haven't noticed, the economy is fucked up.

Bill Clinton beat the elder Bush with a simple message brought to him by George Stephanopolous...."it's the economy stupid". Looks like Georgie junior will face the same fate as his father.
One is one too many for this admistration, the quote is right on "it's the Economy Stupid" Mini Bush dosent deserve a second term. The US$ is in the toilet along with the economy.



Last edited by JFK at Apr 12 2003, 12:56 PM

[wig]

Colin, you will be interested to know that I have done some more witchcrafting and after a small rebound into July (+ or - a month) the stock market will collapse again into 2004 (this should be a MAJOR low however).

I've already been on record over a year ago describing the demise of the US dollar and the beginning of a bull market in precious metals. All my work says it will continue (although currently in a pause).

This does not bode well for Bush, so I agree with JMM.

[Almighty Colin]

Originally posted by wig@Apr 12 2003, 06:23 PM
Colin, you will be interested to know that I have done some more witchcrafting
Love ya, man.

[Almighty Colin]

I think the world's a little too complicated to predict the results of presidential elections 600 days in advance when the candidates haven't even been chosen yet.

[wig]

I certainly am not going out on a limb to try and predict the presidential election. Not a liquid market for that trade anyway. :)

But, in the context of what JMM said about the economy, I am willing to predict that the equity markets will see another serious round of selling into 2004 (same with US $). What that means for the election I do not know or care. But, if someone wants to draw a fundamental correlation between the two I think they will have it.

IMO, a falling equity market is not necessarily a parallel indicator of the economy or election.

For me, I am more concerned about my current short bond and long equity positions as it applies to the next 2-4 days, then 2-4 weeks, then 2-4 months if applicable.

There are just too many pieces of the puzzle to be turned over along the way and I concentrate on whether this new technical information is confirming or negating my analysis.



Last edited by wig at Apr 13 2003, 09:16 AM