Thoughts on War.

[Almighty Colin]

This is a cakewalk so far.

Much has been made of whether the plan is on target or not. Some media pundits have asked "Where are the mass surrenders?" "Did 'shock and awe' fail?

Question. Where did the entire Iraqi regular army go? Maybe 200,000 soldiers with a few handfuls of mechanized and armored divisions.Some estimate up to double that. Did they just go home? Maybe they actually did. I remember in the weeks before the war that Iraqi soldiers were going to be given papers to sign saying they are leaving the battlefield instead of trying to hold 60,000+ POWs like in Gulf War I. Makes sense. Would be a logistical nightmare to hold tens of thousands of POWs for however long this shall last. Who knows? Maybe they are all in civilian clothes hanging out in Baghdad. Maybe they went home to their families like the fliers said. No one seems to comment on this or to know.

The Feyadeen Saddam might be less effective than some well-trained snipers would be. No more terrorizing either.

We'll learn more in the coming weeks and months. History will answer what pundits cannot.

[Rolo]

Saddam might hold on to power - just like the Taliban did in Afghanistan after the first few weeks of bombings. But then suddently his armies and cities will fall in matter of days, when they run out of supplies and soldiers (just like the Taliban did).

The real problem will be Baghdad... its not a problem to invade the city, but how many casualties can we accept?? From the army I have heard 15% as acceptable, but I remember to have heard the number 30-50% as "normal" in urban warfare... could probably huge losses halt an end to the war, and keep Baghdad under siege?

So far I agree the war have been a success - those in the media who thought that the war would be over in 3 days have seen to many movies - IMHO. Saddam have been at power for the last 25 years - he have had alot of time to prepare...

[RyanLanane]

I agree, too much was made of the shock and awe campaign (by the media).

We were told quite simply to expect something that would "shock and awe" us.... Now if that initial wave of attacks at noon didn't set you back twenty feet then you have no heart and are a completely unemotional person. I turn 25 in June, so I am still a "young 'un" but that was the FIRST time in my life I actually felt like we were at war ... besides of course the fact I realized we would be on 9/11. That 5 minutes of footage made me feel like we were at war more than all the Gulf War footage put together.

I think thus far, considering the fact we are using ground troops in the manner we are.. The U.S. military is doing extremely well. Keep in mind folks, we also have NO IDEA what are special ops are doing, god only knows how many Iraqi officials have been sniped, etc etc etc....

I think this situation could become quite ugly however if either Iran or Syria decide to help Iraq out. I was also very worried that China would become involved as adimant as they were about a peaceful resolution, but then I realized if they are for peace why would they get involved in a war? Which made me hapy as hell because they are one of the few countries that really scares the *** out of me!!


My thoughts? Within 3 weeks this will be either over or very near an end......

[Almighty Colin]

3rd Infantry Battles Republican Guard Forces At Euphrates Bridge (http://www.rferl.org/nca/features/2003/03/31032003131033.asp)

[originalheather]

Dayumm, Ryan..25? I remember you from 97. You started in porn at 2? :P That made you one of the younger guys, but I remember one Ynot member that was 17. Used to chat with him and can't remember his name now..attests to MY age lol.

3 weeks? I hope so, but I'm getting this creepy feeling that it's not going to be that easy.

Once you're fighting inside an urban area that the other guy knows like the back of his hand, you're in trouble. :( The Iraqi's could make this last a long, long time.

We don't have the options we had in WWII..we can't just bomb the place to dust. Leveling half of Germany cut a year off that war, but this time it's not going to be possible.

The international community is already up in arms over the civilian casualties so far. We level Baghdad and we're going to have real trouble on our hands. I have waking nightmares envisioning the snipers picking off soldiers one by one.

We have to remember that Sadam only gives a shit about his people insofar that they provide him with international sympathy. He's certainly not beyond killing them off to make it look like we did it.

I just hope I'm wrong and it will indeed be over quickly.



Last edited by originalheather at Mar 31 2003, 07:06 AM

[RyanLanane]

Heather, Special ops are most likely leading Iraqi citizens out of Baghdad... I am just guessing here though, once S H loses his ability to use his citizens as human shields (absolutely horendous war crime!) then I think things will be alot easier.. But then again you do still have a lot of crazy people in Iraq who think this is Jihad?

You could very welll be right, I just hate knowing we have this many soldiers KIA already - The idea of a thousand or even more makes me SHUDDER!!!!

[RyanLanane]

BTW Heather, I was 18 in the YNOT days :o)))

Waited till the day I turned 18, hornily surfed the boards and websites to 'get a feel' while I was 17... Hit 18 BAM opened up my first site using amateur Clicks at 2 cents per unique hehehe....
:rokk: :rokk: :rokk: :rokk:

[RawAlex]

Remember that the US and buddies are still fighting to this day in Afghanistan... I don't expect to see this one end any time soon... maybe end of May or into June before they even suggest to find Saddam... too many civilians, too much playing nice and trying not to kill them, even as they man the anti-aircraft guns on the roof of their apartments...

Alex

[Almighty Colin]

Originally posted by RawAlex@Mar 31 2003, 11:08 AM
Remember that the US and buddies are still fighting to this day in Afghanistan..
It's safer to be a US soldier in Kabul today than a white boy in Harlem.

Total US soldiers KIA in Afghanistan: 18 (http://www.globeandmail.com/servlet/story/RTGAM.20030329.wafgh0329_2/BNStory/International)

[Almighty Colin]

Originally posted by RawAlex@Mar 31 2003, 11:08 AM
I don't expect to see this one end any time soon... maybe end of May or into June before they even suggest to find Saddam
That WOULD be soon.

[RawAlex]

Originally posted by Colin+Mar 31 2003, 11:23 AM--></span><table border='0' align='center' width='95%' cellpadding='3' cellspacing='1'><tr><td>QUOTE (Colin @ Mar 31 2003, 11:23 AM)</td></tr><tr><td id='QUOTE'><!--QuoteBegin--RawAlex@Mar 31 2003, 11:08 AM
Remember that the US and buddies are still fighting to this day in Afghanistan..
It's safer to be a US soldier in Kabul today than a white boy in Harlem.

Total US soldiers KIA in Afghanistan: 18 (http://www.globeandmail.com/servlet/story/RTGAM.20030329.wafgh0329_2/BNStory/International)[/b][/quote]
Yeah, safer only because you got thousands of your posse with you, and your are armed to the teeth...

I suspect that the average soldier, fully equipped, would last a long time in New York... especially with all his friends with him.

Alex

[Almighty Colin]

The coalition has invaded a country with 25 million people, a very large standing army, 1800 tanks, and thousands of artillery pieces.

If China were invading Iraq with this degree of dominance, we would all be in absolute awe.

The only standard by which this war could be said to not be going tremendously well is invicibility.By every other historical standard, it is remarkable.

[XXXManager]

Im quoting my predictions as posted on GFY (I'm not putting a link here because I don't want serge to spank me ;) ).
This was submitted a while ago and you can find it there to see I quoted word for word. (im a little nosterdamus ;) )
If you dare - put your predictions here as well to see how much you know your shit :)
btw - the first paragraph is meant not for you but all the stupid kids filling GFY. no offense then...

To all the pussies out there (no offense), thinking the war is already too long and claimed too many lives, and to all other people out there as well... Here is my 2 cents for you about what is war and what I predict is going to happen next in Iraq.

1. Expect 10 casualties a day in average on the allied forces side. Expect 100-150 casualties a day on the Iraqi side (depends what you count) in average (not including civilians). I hope that there will be less of this on each side - but hope is just that... hope. The high number of allied casualties per day is a result of mainly points #5 - #7
2. Expect a 6 months war. The 2-3 first months will be aimed at crushing the Iraqi central command. The rest 3-4 will be to suppress opposition and resistance.
that two factors result in an estimated 1800 allied forces dead and about 18,000-27,000
3. The fighting will continue through guerilla fighting even after the official end of the war, but that is irrelevant part of the process. That resistance will die over time (I predict additional 6 months after the war end) and will disperse itself due to lack of interest of te opposing forces. There will be even longer term opposition but it will be marginal and will be against the new Iraqi leadership rather than against allied forces which will over time leave Iraq.
4. Expect zero mercy to allied forces POWs. To all the pussies out there – this is Iraqis not Englishmen. Executions and torture there is considered fun. If you can’t digest it – go back to listening to Britney Spears. Don’t expect to see too many of the POWs alive again. Some will, but I don’t pity the lives they will have after the war.

When Allied forces arrive Bagdad, which is their main target since it will be the center of war and is the stronghold of the Iraqi central command they will face the following…

5. on every corner there will be booby-traps and mines. The allied forces will be shot at or bombed in every second corner. Bagdad is very similar in structure to a refugee camp – narrow streets. Remember Israel – Jenin Palestinian tactics? You will see a replay of that in Iraq.
6. The desire of the allied forces to resolve the war “efficiently” by bombing the hell out of Bagdad to avoid casualties will cost them highly in lives of soldiers. That will not stop the Iraqis from complaining of “massacre” that the allied forces commit (see point #7)
7. Iraqi soldiers will adopt the following two tactics. The first is false surrenders with explosive-belts or guns. The second – suicide bombers charging allied forces. Reminds you of the Palestinian tactics? Not surprisingly so. You thought the Iraqi regime will respect codes of war? Your awakened by now? The effect of these two issues will make it harder for the allied forces to accept surrendering forces. Remember the blind-folded, tied-up captives by Israeli-defense-force? You will see that too in Iraq.
8. The Iraqis will use the ever more effective “massacre” and “humanitarian disaster” tool for PR to win points in the weak western world (as if “humanitarian disaster” is something the Iraqi leadership gives a damn about anyway). I predict you will see condemnation propositions on the UN against what is happening in Iraq (like the UN did not approve sanctions which were humanitarianly bad enough – plain hypocrisy). Remember Israel–Jenin fabricated claims? You will see a replay of that in Iraq. You will see pictures of so called humanitarian disaster and innocent casualties (which no doubt will happen) blown out of proportion by the media into a prime-time scale – so it will be interesting enough to watch (sick but true).
9. In Bagdad – the allied forces will adopt the following combat method (to some extent): Wall to wall progress (IDF invention) – where they will advance through people’s houses by tearing down internal walls instead of going through the streets. Not nice - but life saving.
10. The war will finally be won by the allied forces (surprise, surprise). Some will say it’s not a victory. Some will say the victory is pointless. Some will say the victory was too costly. Then again – most of those you will hear saying that are western people living and capable of speaking their mind just because their army was “vicious” enough to protect them thus-far. (Its fun to bash the ones that see/have no choice but protecting you anyway)

To all those that thought that inspections or diplomacy are useful tools with the Iraqi regime… I hope you are awakened by now.
To all those who thought that sanctions will impose hardship on the Iraqis and will cause their leadership to stop arming and buy food with the oil money… I hope you are awakened by now. The Iraqi leadership as you can see (if you care looking) couldn’t care less about the innocent poor Iraqi (especially the Shias).
To all those who thought innocent Iraqis will not die… I hope you are awakened. It’s sad but it’s inevitable. The only effective way to avoid killing innocent Iraqis (directly) is not go to war. Then again – many will die by the hands of Saddam and out of poverty and hunger even without war.

These are all my predictions. Not necessarily my hopes or desired. I hope the war will take 6 days with no more casualties, concluded by Saddam surrendering, turning his country into a proud and enlightened democracy, opening super-chains of K-marts and McDonalds (I hate McDonald) supplying his people with workplaces and cheap (junk) food and finally leap towards the 21nd century with great medical and scientific research and leading the world into aerospace research and conquering of the galaxy.
I am not a Britney Spears fan though – so I know its not going to happen.

This is WAR, not a video game! You don’t press “Replay” if you die!
If it’s too tough for you to digest – grow up, or shut down the TV.
The alternative of leaving in a world full of dangers and fears is not a good alternative. It may feel better in the very short term though but so does Heroin or suffocation during sex.

[Almighty Colin]

Originally posted by RawAlex@Mar 31 2003, 11:08 AM
I don't expect to see this one end any time soon... maybe end of May or into June before they even suggest to find Saddam... too many civilians, too much playing nice and trying not to kill them, even as they man the anti-aircraft guns on the roof of their apartments...

Alex

I bet on quite a bit faster than you though. Half that time or better. I think things will go VERY quickly soon -- unless chemical weapons are used which is a big unknown.

Republican Guard's Medina Division reportedly to about 50% attrition rate which is the mark that was used in Gulf War I before ground operations began. Strategic goals being achieved pretty quickly.



Last edited by Colin at Mar 31 2003, 04:18 PM

[PornoDoggy]

I'm sorry, but I don't see the criticism of the war plan as mere media nitpicking. If you listened to all the spokesmen of the administration, would would have gotten fucking dizzy trying to figure out how we were in for a long hard war when everyone was going to surrender to the first available CNN crew. Some of the war cheerleaders on this board were quite fond of pointing that out. The promises of shock and awe didn't come from the media - they came from the powers that be.

There is absolutely no reason for us to be dealing with supply and logistics problems when fighting the Iraqi army. If the General was correct, and they "never gamed out" the amount of resistance the Iraqis are putting up, then there was considerable political interference with the process. And while the war machine does seem to be moving, it seems to me that a cylinder or two are not firing quite right.

Another thing that bothers me is this subsequent deployment of 120,000. Not so much that they are sending the troops - if they are needed, get them over there. But the announcement that they are going two weeks after hostilies commence raises more than just an eyebrow, particularly with the shift of "credit" for the war plan to General Franks, the pause that isn't a pause, and the oily way Rumsfeld talked about their orders being signed two or three weeks ago.

But gee ... I must not think that way. Never mind that the dreaded "Mc" word has been muttered around Pentagon lately in reference to the Secretary of Defense. That was then; this is now.