Will Sadam Strike First?

[Forest]

with war looming and Sadam's life expectancy getting shorter by the minute dont you think thats his best move now?

he is moving SCUDS and other arms close to south west area of Iraq closest to israel as well as south east near the Kuwaiti borader and our troops.

If he can kill 2-3k Israelis with a Scud Bio/Chem attack dont you think they will retaliate with simialr force and POSSIBLY tactical nukes.

This could change the whole scenario in the middle east and the war if the israeli's get involved

[XXXManager]

Originally posted by Forest@Mar 16 2003, 06:28 AM
...If he can kill 2-3k Israelis with a Scud Bio/Chem attack dont you think they will retaliate with simialr force and POSSIBLY tactical nukes.
This could change the whole scenario in the middle east and the war if the israeli's get involved
Actually no one knows how many people he can kill if he manages to get his Scuds over to Israel.
The mere speculation and pondering indicates how much Saddam is not to be taken lightly. Why would striking Israel is considered a valid first strike? Israel has stated no official stand as to the war. Israel will not take part in this war as it didn't in the last - EVEN though it was striked.
If Saddam manages to get Bio/Chem Scuds to israel it potentially can cause more than 2-3K deaths.
In such a case I can tell you that: The official stand of Israel is that if striked it will know how to respond. Not only that - but if striked it WILL respond. This is a very very different stand than the previus war. Not only this but Israel official stand this time is that if striken with non-conventioal weapons it does NOT rule out use of any means.

The following is only my personal opinion: I wish Saddam will not try to strike Israel. I can also tell you that I wish if attacked - it will be conventional weapon and in that case I hope Israel can do the right thing (whatever it is). Last I will say - if striken with non-conventional weapons, "god" helps this region and Iraq. If anything - Israel should act out of relatiation and deterrant motives.
Unlike the UN and some people and countries around the western- I do not think the world is a happy and good place that if hit you should smile and give the other cheek and smile hoping everything will be ok cause there is no evil in it. Especially in the ME region - most people see inaction as a sign of weakness and weakness as a call for further attacks. This is a concept and "philosophy" that is mostly hard for western people to understand.

[Mike AI]

If I was Saddam I would strike first, to cause chaos.

However, I think Saddam really thinks he can hold off American forces. He needs International Support - he cannot get this if he attacks first. So he will wait for US to attack, then he will go crazy and start launching anything he can. Saddam knows he cannot WIN, BUT he thinks he can bog the US down, and maybe hold out and remain in power.

His strategy for this would be to inflict as many casualties on the US as possible, trying to make war unpopular at home in US. Also create tons of civilian casualties - blaming them all on us, and try to get international support against the US to end the war. He thus cannot attack first.

The problem with his faulty thinking, is that its going to happen so fast, so quick there will be no time to cause the kind of casualties he thinks he can. Also this Country and the President are strong minded people, and will not back down from casualties, and opinions of those like France.

But this is my opinion.....

[TheEnforcer]

If he was even halfway intelligent he would have already launched some type of strike by now cause once we start it will be EXTREMELY difficult for him to launch one that could be even close to half as effective as if he did before we started.

[Naughty]

Whatever happens, I am glad I do not live in a big US city right now

[Almighty Colin]

Originally posted by Naughty@Mar 19 2003, 08:13 AM
Whatever happens, I am glad I do not live in a big US city right now
I'm glad I do!

[Forest]

Originally posted by Mike AI@Mar 18 2003, 05:10 PM
If I was Saddam I would strike first, to cause chaos.

However, I think Saddam really thinks he can hold off American forces. He needs International Support - he cannot get this if he attacks first. So he will wait for US to attack, then he will go crazy and start launching anything he can. Saddam knows he cannot WIN, BUT he thinks he can bog the US down, and maybe hold out and remain in power.

His strategy for this would be to inflict as many casualties on the US as possible, trying to make war unpopular at home in US. Also create tons of civilian casualties - blaming them all on us, and try to get international support against the US to end the war. He thus cannot attack first.

The problem with his faulty thinking, is that its going to happen so fast, so quick there will be no time to cause the kind of casualties he thinks he can. Also this Country and the President are strong minded people, and will not back down from casualties, and opinions of those like France.

But this is my opinion.....
Mike
Im afraid we are going to see somehting from him in the next 24 hours

he is filling trenches with oil

he has created a LAKE of oil over a mile long in the desert south of bagdad

He will launch an attack soon i fear

then he will truley show his cards and what type of chemical/bio weapons he has

then we can tell the french and the UN we told you so

[Trev]

Originally posted by Forest@Mar 19 2003, 01:19 PM
Mike
Im afraid we are going to see somehting from him in the next 24 hours

he is filling trenches with oil

he has created a LAKE of oil over a mile long in the desert south of bagdad

He will launch an attack soon i fear

then he will truley show his cards and what type of chemical/bio weapons he has

then we can tell the french and the UN we told you so
He can't launch an attack without loosing all the support from the Security Council and the other Arab nations such as Saudi... he'll most likely wait until we make our move, then throw whatever he can at us and other nations such a Israel, as he's been massing forces near their borders.

Where did you get the info on the oil? I'd like to read about that...

[Peaches]

Originally posted by Colin+Mar 19 2003, 09:15 AM--></span><table border='0' align='center' width='95%' cellpadding='3' cellspacing='1'><tr><td>QUOTE (Colin @ Mar 19 2003, 09:15 AM)</td></tr><tr><td id='QUOTE'><!--QuoteBegin--Naughty@Mar 19 2003, 08:13 AM
Whatever happens, I am glad I do not live in a big US city right now
I'm glad I do![/b][/quote]
I'm glad I have my own water, sewer and energy sources and Wig, the Survivor Mountain Man with gold, lives 10 miles away :awinky:

[Forest]

Originally posted by Trev+Mar 19 2003, 05:24 AM--></span><table border='0' align='center' width='95%' cellpadding='3' cellspacing='1'><tr><td>QUOTE (Trev @ Mar 19 2003, 05:24 AM)</td></tr><tr><td id='QUOTE'><!--QuoteBegin--Forest@Mar 19 2003, 01:19 PM
Mike
Im afraid we are going to see somehting from him in the next 24 hours

he is filling trenches with oil

he has created a LAKE of oil over a mile long in the desert south of bagdad

He will launch an attack soon i fear

then he will truley show his cards and what type of chemical/bio weapons he has

then we can tell the french and the UN we told you so
He can't launch an attack without loosing all the support from the Security Council and the other Arab nations such as Saudi... he'll most likely wait until we make our move, then throw whatever he can at us and other nations such a Israel, as he's been massing forces near their borders.

Where did you get the info on the oil? I'd like to read about that...[/b][/quote]
trev

i have msnbc cnn fox ect ect on all day

satalites have picked up an oil slick a mile long in the desert
that was yesterday

they are saying a moat has been dug around bagdad to be filled with oil and set ablaze to try and hinder our guided bombs

most of the oil fields have been mined and boobytraped


as far as his support in the UN,

dude that doesnt mean shit anymore....we are going to war and there is nothing ANYONE can do for him now



Last edited by Forest at Mar 19 2003, 06:00 AM

[wig]

Don't forget the guns and mules. :P

[Forest]

Originally posted by wig@Mar 19 2003, 05:58 AM
Don't forget the guns and mules. :P
if they invade us Im going to wigs

can i bring the girls they dont eat much :agrin:

[wig]

The more girls the merrier. :redance:

[Trev]

Originally posted by Forest@Mar 19 2003, 01:58 PM
as far as his support in the UN,

dude that doesnt mean shit anymore....we are going to war and there is nothing ANYONE can do for him now
The reason I mentioned the UN is because if he strikes first it changes many many things, all of them bad for him...

Right now there are only US & UK forces going to go into Iraq Garanteed!! Without a doubt (for now at least) BUT if he strikes first it will change the UN's view on this whole situation and would lead to a situation more resembling 1991... more countries would back this invasion militarily… he just won't do it...


I've said over and over that he's an evil madman... I've never said he was a moron.

[Forest]

trev your missing the BIG picture

saddam is DEAD

the UN is POWERLESS

so he has NOTHING to lose

[Naughty]

Originally posted by Colin@Mar 19 2003, 05:15 AM
I'm glad I do!
I know you are, you are one of America's finest :redance:

[Trev]

No forest YOU are missing my point!!!

I'm only stating an opinion that (and I'll go slow here) he.. will.. not.. attack.. first.. and.. why!

He aint DEAD as you put it.. not yet, as long as he plays his cards the way he is right now he'll maintain the support of the UN and the other Arab nations. (pay attention) even if they can do nothing to help him it makes no difference to him

He needs his people to see this support for him and the opposition to the US and it's allies, to him this is not a war that he needs to fight and win. It's a war to show how the US and it's allies bully, invade and control, you know, the whole "the west is evil and must be destroyed, down with America, down with the UK" game. So as far as I'm concerned we got to take this madman down and now!

That’s why he won't attack first!

So you think the UN is powerless... hmmm... erm... no… not it this post you've already had a lot to take in...

[Rox]

I also heard on NPR yesterday that apparently Saddam's got US military uniforms, and that he might stage and videotape a scenario that shows "US soldiers" killing a bunch of Iraqi civilians.

[Forest]

Originally posted by Trev@Mar 19 2003, 06:49 AM
No forest YOU are missing my point!!!

I'm only stating an opinion that (and I'll go slow here) he.. will.. not.. attack.. first.. and.. why!

He aint DEAD as you put it.. not yet, as long as he plays his cards the way he is right now he'll maintain the support of the UN and the other Arab nations. (pay attention) even if they can do nothing to help him it makes no difference to him

He needs his people to see this support for him and the opposition to the US and it's allies, to him this is not a war that he needs to fight and win. It's a war to show how the US and it's allies bully, invade and control, you know, the whole "the west is evil and must be destroyed, down with America, down with the UK" game. So as far as I'm concerned we got to take this madman down and now!

That’s why he won't attack first!

So you think the UN is powerless... hmmm... erm... no… not it this post you've already had a lot to take in...
trev

pull your head from the sand my boy

The trigger has been pulled

there is no putting this bullet back

Saddam is walking dead

The UN is Nothing and they proved it. They cant stop this war

and the ONLY card saddam can play to get his ass out of trouble is to leave Iraq

[Trev]

Originally posted by Forest@Mar 19 2003, 03:18 PM
pull your head from the sand my boy

The trigger has been pulled

there is no putting this bullet back

Saddam is walking dead

The UN is Nothing and they proved it. They cant stop this war

and the ONLY card saddam can play to get his ass out of trouble is to leave Iraq
Forest... is it my typing? is there a language breakdown between my English and your American?

:headwall:

I'll run it nice and slow... much slower than before...

Here goes... ready...

I know the trigger has been pulled.. ok... covered!

I know there is no putting the bullet back... ok... covered!

Both me and Saddam know he is the walking dead... BUT (and this is where I'll go slow... I'll type in crayon if you need)

The only thing that matters to Saddam what the rest of the Arabs think, because it will be the actions of a certain number of these Arabs that Saddam is aiming for... I'll explain in another format as well...

"I'm Kamir I'm an Arab... I used to love America the land of the free... but now after it attacks the innocent Arabs in Iraq for no reason I hate America and want to destroy it! oh yes and I didn't know it was because of chemical weapons or maybe nuclear weapons because my subscription to CNN was cancelled and I only get Dictator TV"

Get it forest? see where I'm going with this?

That is what matters to Saddam, he knows he's going to be invaded and probably killed, I know this as well... damn even my goldfish knows...

[Trev]

I promised myself I wasn't going to do the whole 'I told you so' routine...

but fuck it - I TOLD YOU SO :nyanya:

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/artic...-2003Mar20.html (http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A59948-2003Mar20.html)

[Forest]

hahahahahaha

trev If you think Saddam give 2 shits what ANYONE in the world thinks of him INCLUDING the arabs your more clueless than I thought

Saddam cares about NOTHING but his crazzy self

dude get a clue

I know your goldfish do

:okthumb:

[Forest]

trev

the fact that article says he is reaching out to arabs DOES NOT MEAN he cares what they think

do you believe EVERYTHING you read

tsk tsk tsk

:nyanya:

[Trev]

hahahahaha

you really are an argumentative git arn't you :P

and no I don't believe everything I read... I couldn't because I read your posts :awinky:

[Forest]

good man

you had me worried there for a sec

:okthumb: