Could Saddam Attack First?

[wig]

I am not trying to be an alarmist, but the period of November 18th - 29th carry some very dangerous cycles that could involve some surprises.

Although I believe that any events, whether they be this month or in mid-January, are only precursor events to the more dangerous cycles surrounding Sept - Oct 2003, I have learned to anticipate fundamentals when there is a large synergy of cycles.

Most would agree as to the players and the likeliness of war, and I am only speculating on the timing. With that in mind, and only in conjunction with the plethora of cycles that are aligned, the coming holiday period is one of the most vulnerable economic periods in recent history.

[Almighty Colin]

When Wig gets weird, he goes all the way.

And .. you're being an alarmist. ;-)

[wig]

Originally posted by Colin@Nov 18 2002, 08:11 AM
When Wig gets weird, he goes all the way.

And .. you're being an alarmist. ;-)
Colin, back in 2000 I told a few people that Sept 2001 was a huge cycle period and that I expected a MAJOR low in the Stock indexes. Look what happened.

Look what happened on my cycles periods where I also projected a low in July and again in October. All in advance and all posted right here.

It is what it is. I would be remiss if I did not at least acknowledge the possibilities / probabilities and likely corresponding fundamentals.

And... I am being a realist.

:D

[-= JR =-]

:o

[Almighty Colin]

Saddam might attack because Mars is aligned with Venus or what?

[LadyMischief]

The liklihood of an attack from Saddam I think personally is far less than the liklihood of an attack from Al Queda. Iraq is much more easily punished for any open actions than a terrorist organization that can move about at will. I doubt that Saddam, even as crazy as he is, would actually give the entire world an open invitation to come in and kick his ass. He would be writing his own death warrent, as if it wasn't already written.

[-= JR =-]

Originally posted by Colin@Nov 18 2002, 08:52 AM
Saddam might attack because Mars is aligned with Venus or what?
I vote to attack Venus to avert a dual catastrophe in the Middle East and NYSE

where is Madame Cleo when we need her?
:unsure:

[Almighty Colin]

I guarantee something will go bad in the world Nov. 18-29. Something is going terribly bad every day. Something is going on terribly bad right now. How would you verify the predictions of any such method? Sounds like Modern day Nostradamism.

Also .. Do you mean for the world or the US in particular?



Last edited by Colin at Nov 18 2002, 08:59 AM

[Petr]

there is NATO summit here in Prague Nov 21st-24th, btw

[Winetalk.com]

Colin,
the proof will be in the form of major drop of the stock market.

Wig,
am I answering it correctly for you?
;-)

[Almighty Colin]

Originally posted by Petr@Nov 18 2002, 09:20 AM
there is NATO summit here in Prague Nov 21st-24th, btw
Prague looks so beautiful in pictures. I really need to plana trip.

[wig]

Colin,

I have somewhat detailed for you in email how I approach cycles and, as you know, it has nothing to do with Mars or Venus. B)

I believe I have shown by past forecasts that my cycle work has some validity. Those who have been following closely can see this. :D

[-= JR =-]

I called John Edward of the TV show crossing over with some serious questions about our future.

here is the transcript of that conversation:

JR: Mr Edward, what can you tell us about Iraq and the stock market?

Edward: .... Hmm..... i sense something.... i sense something either good or bad..... does this mean anything to anyone?

JR: *slightly befuddled but trying to be respectful* --- "uhmm... could you elaborate?"

Edward: "its about the energy... i dont have a clear picture, just a sensation. this sensation i feel right now is either good or bad"

JR: so what does that mean exactly?

Edward: "look, i dont know how to make it any clearer"
*fat lady in audience shakes her head in disgust at my questions and apparent disbelief*

JR: I am not sure what is clear? are you predicting something will happen?

JR: ok... lets start over.. what exactly are you sensing will happen?

Edward: I am sensing big change.

JR: can you elaborate?
*fat lady in the audience throws her french fries at me and screams "your just an asshole... why dont you go home with all the other negative assholes"

Edward: you see, change will come, i know this because i can sense it. the sensation is really strong. i can also feel the definate sensation that it will be either a positive or negative change.

JR: can you describe the "change" exactly?

Edward: *chuckles, trying to show patience with my stupidity* of course! The change will be something different than before. You see JR, thats what change is.
*fat lady in the audience now laughs triumphantly at my brutal defeat*

JR: ok. what i can gather from todays conversation is that you know something will happen, but you dont know what?

Edward: Look JR, are you trying to be ignorant? i told you what. I told you it will be a good or bad change. How can it be clearer?
*several fat ladies in the audience chuckle together at me being buried in a storm of logic that only wayward, divorced housewives of talk show audiences seem to understand as i leave the stage*

[wig]

Originally posted by Serge_Oprano@Nov 18 2002, 09:24 AM
Colin,
the proof will be in the form of major drop of the stock market.

Wig,
am I answering it correctly for you?
;-)
Serge,

Actually, there is some truth to this but with a small caveat. I stated in October that I felt that a low was in the making. It was during the same period when many were predicting a collapse.

I think we have just realized the first leg up from that low and that now the market is vulnerable to a "B" wave decline. This "B" wave decline will be a sharp pull-back which I believe will be followed by another rally into January.

If it unfolds like I think, this could be a very important top.

My comments regarding Saddam or Al Qaeda are based on middle east cycles. Again, I believe any near term events to be a precursor to Sept - Oct 2003 when the real fireworks are likely.

We'll see.
:)

[Almighty Colin]

Wig - you are only publishing and recalling your successes and not your failures. Selective results.

Curious though - how would you apply any such methodology to the Earth as a whole?

"the period of November 18th - 29th carry some very dangerous cycles that could involve some surprises."

How would you know if you were right or wrong? What constitutes success? Another bombing in Israel, a natural disaster, a new law passed by the evil Republicans?

[wig]

Originally posted by Colin@Nov 18 2002, 09:40 AM
Wig - you are only publishing and recalling your successes and not your failures. Selective results.


How would you know if you were right or wrong? What constitutes success? Another bombing in Israel, a natural disaster, a new law passed by the evil Republicans?
Colin,

Feel free to highlight my failures. I have never professed to know it all or to be right all the time.

I measure whether I am right or wrong in dollars in my portfolio. :D

If you and JR want to make fun of my work I'm cool with that.

[Almighty Colin]

Wig - if you want a very interested audience, try your methods on the NFL and beating point spreads.

[wig]

Originally posted by Colin@Nov 18 2002, 09:53 AM
Wig - if you want a very interested audience, try your methods on the NFL and beating point spreads.
Colin,

I am interested in making money in my investments and speculations in the markets. I do not care about football, nor have I put any time towards studying it. I have been studying and trading markets for 17 years.

The fact is, the equity markets and events in the middle east are closely related.

My post was not meant to get into a debate about the validity of cycles, astrology, football spreads or psychics. Some people may find it interesting and see the correlation and others just like to stir shit. :D

[Winetalk.com]

wig,
I am selling positions bought in October and raise cash to take advantege of any drop.

I put my money where YOUR mouth is
;_))

[wig]

Serge,

Thanks. I'll let you know when I have specific price targets for the anticipated low. :D

[bpj]

Wig,
Again, I don't know why you waste your time revealing your market & cycles calls here! For most, you could connect the dots and they STILL won't see the picture!
Fuck'em!

:awinky:

[-= JR =-]

i am not making fun of you Wig. i am just joking with myself at your expense. sorry.

everyone who predicts anything is vague and points to past successes to give those predictions credibility.

Gamblers remember the times they won... and forget the times they lost. in fact, the more they lose, the more they believe they will win. Thats why hundreds of billions flow through Vegas every year and why Trillions change hands in the stock markets.

I never met a gambler that did not believe he had a system.
I never met a gamber that won more than he lost.
:bdance:

[Almighty Colin]

Originally posted by wig@Nov 18 2002, 09:59 AM
My post was not meant to get into a debate about the validity of cycles, astrology, football spreads or psychics.
Surely you understand Oprano's cycles though.

[wig]

Originally posted by -= JR =-@Nov 18 2002, 10:20 AM
i am not making fun of you Wig. i am just joking with myself at your expense. sorry.

everyone who predicts anything is vague and points to past successes to give those predictions credibility.

Gamblers remember the times they won... and forget the times they lost. in fact, the more they lose, the more they believe they will win. Thats why hundreds of billions flow through Vegas every year and why Trillions change hands in the stock markets.

I never met a gambler that did not believe he had a system.
I never met a gamber that won more than he lost.
:bdance:
JR,

It's all good and no need to apologize.

While there may be some vagueness regarding the middle east events to come and my post, my forecasts on markets (including both price and time) have been pretty specific.

If you have never met a gambler that makes money, you better get out more. There are many forms of gambling. For instance, do you not think Warren Buffet gambles when he decides to invest?

What about a business owner? Did you and Colin not gamble when you started pleasure labs?

Yes, trillions change hands in the stock market, but it is a zero sum game. For every buyer there is a seller. :blink:

Your explanation and conclusions of the life and times of the "gambler" leave a lot to be desired.

[wig]

Originally posted by Colin+Nov 18 2002, 10:22 AM--></span><table border='0' align='center' width='95%' cellpadding='3' cellspacing='1'><tr><td>QUOTE (Colin @ Nov 18 2002, 10:22 AM)</td></tr><tr><td id='QUOTE'><!--QuoteBegin--wig@Nov 18 2002, 09:59 AM
My post was not meant to get into a debate about the validity of cycles, astrology, football spreads or psychics.
Surely you understand Oprano's cycles though.[/b][/quote]
Absolutely, which is why I take no offense to your inquisition. :D :D

[Winetalk.com]

Originally posted by bpj@Nov 18 2002, 10:20 AM
Wig,
Again, I don't know why you waste your time revealing your market & cycles calls here! For most, you could connect the dots and they STILL won't see the picture!
Fuck'em!

:awinky:
hey, bpj,
you are in violation of copy rights!
"fuck'em" is MINE!
;_))

[wig]

Originally posted by bpj@Nov 18 2002, 10:20 AM
Wig,
Again, I don't know why you waste your time revealing your market & cycles calls here! For most, you could connect the dots and they STILL won't see the picture!
Fuck'em!

:awinky:
BPJ,

It's all in the exposure. :rokk:

Controversial topics rule and they can't always be about politics. :yowsa:

[Almighty Colin]

Originally posted by wig+Nov 18 2002, 10:35 AM--></span><table border='0' align='center' width='95%' cellpadding='3' cellspacing='1'><tr><td>QUOTE (wig @ Nov 18 2002, 10:35 AM)</td></tr><tr><td id='QUOTE'>Originally posted by -Colin@Nov 18 2002, 10:22 AM
<!--QuoteBegin--wig@Nov 18 2002, 09:59 AM
My post was not meant to get into a debate about the validity of cycles, astrology, football spreads or psychics.
Surely you understand Oprano's cycles though.
Absolutely, which is why I take no offense to your inquisition. :D :D[/b][/quote]
I wouldn't have even considered the possibility that you'd be offended. You're WIG!

bpj - people connect dots in the sky too. I'm an Ophiuchus, how about you?

[wig]

Originally posted by Colin@Nov 18 2002, 10:41 AM
I wouldn't have even considered the possibility that you'd be offended. You're WIG!


Okay.... Thanks for the confirmation. :blink:

[Almighty Colin]

"Inquisition". Interesting choice of words.

[-= JR =-]

Originally posted by wig@Nov 18 2002, 10:33 AM
Your explanation and conclusions of the life and times of the "gambler" leave a lot to be desired.
ok :P
will you reveal the "secret formula" ?
or is this a personal thing between you and Saddam?
:blink:

[Almighty Colin]

Again though Wig, I think you are ignoring the fundamental question and it should be simple to answer. How will we know whether you are correct or incorrect about November 18th - 29th? What constitutes success and failure? I mean - considering the number of problems in the Middle East normally, there aren't that many thing worthy enough of fulfilling predictions. A suicide bombing in Israel is just par for the course. So is blowing away another Iraqi radar installation.

[wig]

Originally posted by Colin@Nov 18 2002, 10:51 AM
"Inquisition". Interesting choice of words.
Not sure what you are trying to imply.

"Curious though - how would you apply any such methodology to the Earth as a whole?

"the period of November 18th - 29th carry some very dangerous cycles that could involve some surprises."

How would you know if you were right or wrong? What constitutes success? Another bombing in Israel, a natural disaster, a new law passed by the evil Republicans?"

Inquisition - The act of inquiring into a matter.

Personally, I thought Ophiuchus was a much more interesting choice.
:D

[Almighty Colin]

Originally posted by -= JR =-@Nov 18 2002, 10:56 AM
will you reveal the "secret formula" ?

Yes, "Inquiring Minds" want to know.

[wig]

Originally posted by -= JR =-+Nov 18 2002, 10:56 AM--></span><table border='0' align='center' width='95%' cellpadding='3' cellspacing='1'><tr><td>QUOTE (-= JR =- @ Nov 18 2002, 10:56 AM)</td></tr><tr><td id='QUOTE'><!--QuoteBegin--wig@Nov 18 2002, 10:33 AM
Your explanation and conclusions of the life and times of the "gambler" leave a lot to be desired.
ok :P
will you reveal the "secret formula" ?
or is this a personal thing between you and Saddam?
:blink:[/b][/quote]
There is no secret formula. Sorry.

However, if you are truly interested, perhaps Colin will forward you our emails where I discuss some of my methodologies.

[Almighty Colin]

Wig - certain historical undertones come to mind when one says "Inquisition".

[wig]

Originally posted by Colin@Nov 18 2002, 10:57 AM
Again though Wig, I think you are ignoring the fundamental question and it should be simple to answer. How will we know whether you are correct or incorrect about November 18th - 29th? What constitutes success and failure? I mean - considering the number of problems in the Middle East normally, there aren't that many thing worthy enough of fulfilling predictions. A suicide bombing in Israel is just par for the course. So is blowing away another Iraqi radar installation.
Colin, what I would term as a surprise would be Saddam lobbing a few missiles at Israel or Al Qaeda pulling off another attack. It would have to stand out.

Anyway, this is secondary to market action where I am concentrating my efforts to be correct as much as possible. :D

[Almighty Colin]

Yes, I would consider that a surprise too but you're EXPECTING it.

[ulfie]

The proof of whether wig is correct or not will be plainly visible based on what the markets do. What or who the event involves isn't the important part when looking at markets from a technical analysis point of view. I don't think wig is Nostradomaus he's just very good at identifying market cycles. Then again, maybe he is Nostradomaus...

[Winetalk.com]

Originally posted by ulfie@Nov 18 2002, 11:17 AM
The proof of whether wig is correct or not will be plainly visible based on what the markets do. What or who the event involves isn't the important part when looking at markets from a technical analysis point of view. I don't think wig is Nostradomaus he's just very good at identifying market cycles. Then again, maybe he is Nostradomaus...
I wouldn't have a problem with Nostardamus ...
he can't do any worse than my broker
;-)))

[-= JR =-]

Originally posted by ulfie@Nov 18 2002, 11:17 AM
I don't think wig is Nostradomaus he's just very good at identifying market cycles. Then again, maybe he is Nostradomaus...
i dont want Wig to be Nastradamaus. That guy scared the shit out of me when i was little. Then i will have to be scared of Wig.

anyone see "the man who saw tomorrow"
:unsure:

[wig]

Originally posted by Colin@Nov 18 2002, 11:17 AM
Yes, I would consider that a surprise too but you're EXPECTING it.
Colin,

C'mon, guy.... I am merely expressing a probable time frame, based on prior events of similar magnitude, to watch for a POTENTIAL event.

I am not long "Saddam will lob missiles into Israel" futures contracts.

See the difference? I suspect you have already. :)

[wig]

Originally posted by ulfie@Nov 18 2002, 11:17 AM
The proof of whether wig is correct or not will be plainly visible based on what the markets do. What or who the event involves isn't the important part when looking at markets from a technical analysis point of view. I don't think wig is Nostradomaus he's just very good at identifying market cycles. Then again, maybe he is Nostradomaus...
Ulfie,

Thanks for expaining it this way.

I have no visions, and I certainly am not psychic. I study history (mostly market history) and I make assessments of probabilities.

Anyone who invests in any market has to base their decisions on something.

:D

[Almighty Colin]

JR - how about Hal Lindsey's "The Late Great Planet Earth"? I saw Lindsey on TV just the other day - still predicting the imminent "end of times". I read many such books as a child. I remember in particular that a "survey of psychics" thought a third world war would be fought and they all agreed that 2000 was the Grand Finale. 2000 came and went and it sure scared many. Now, of course it should be obvious to them that they were just projecting their own Cold War fears onto their predictions. I seriously doubt THEY see it that way though.

Edgar Cayce, Jeanne Dixon, Richard Kieninger. What happened?

[Almighty Colin]

Originally posted by wig+Nov 18 2002, 11:26 AM--></span><table border='0' align='center' width='95%' cellpadding='3' cellspacing='1'><tr><td>QUOTE (wig @ Nov 18 2002, 11:26 AM)</td></tr><tr><td id='QUOTE'><!--QuoteBegin--Colin@Nov 18 2002, 11:17 AM
Yes, I would consider that a surprise too but you're EXPECTING it.
Colin,

C'mon, guy.... I am merely expressing a probable time frame, based on prior events of similar magnitude, to watch for a POTENTIAL event.

I am not long "Saddam will lob missiles into Israel" futures contracts.

See the difference? I suspect you have already. :)[/b][/quote]
How "potential"? Do you mean there is a 10 % chance an event will occur, 20%, 40%, or what?
What is the baseline? How frequent are events of this magnitude in the Middle East already?

More importantly, what kind of expiration dates can I get on those "Saddam-Israel" contracts?



Last edited by Colin at Nov 18 2002, 11:41 AM

[Nickatilynx]

I hope there are no battlefield nukes missing.

Watched that film "Bad Company"with Anthony Hopkins and Chris Rock

[-= JR =-]

Originally posted by Colin@Nov 18 2002, 11:36 AM
JR - how about Hal Lindsey's "The Late Great Planet Earth"? I saw Lindsey on TV just the other day - still predicting the imminent "end of times". I read many such books as a child. I remember in particular that a "survey of psychics" thought a third world war would be fought and they all agreed that 2000 was the Grand Finale. 2000 came and went and it sure scared many. Now, of course it should be obvious to them that they were just projecting their own Cold War fears onto their predictions. I seriously doubt THEY see it that way though.

Edgar Cayce, Jeanne Dixon, Richard Kieninger. What happened?
i had a girlfriend in high school and after that thought the world would end in 2000. talk about fucking depressing. :(

it was always a toss up between going to see a movie together, or putting a gun in my mouth and pulling the trigger.

[wig]

Originally posted by Colin+Nov 18 2002, 11:40 AM--></span><table border='0' align='center' width='95%' cellpadding='3' cellspacing='1'><tr><td>QUOTE (Colin @ Nov 18 2002, 11:40 AM)</td></tr><tr><td id='QUOTE'>Originally posted by -wig@Nov 18 2002, 11:26 AM
<!--QuoteBegin--Colin@Nov 18 2002, 11:17 AM
Yes, I would consider that a surprise too but you're EXPECTING it.
Colin,

C'mon, guy.... I am merely expressing a probable time frame, based on prior events of similar magnitude, to watch for a POTENTIAL event.

I am not long "Saddam will lob missiles into Israel" futures contracts.

See the difference? I suspect you have already. :)
How "potential"? Do you mean there is a 10 % chance an event will occur, 20%, 40%, or what?
What is the baseline? How frequent are events of this magnitude in the Middle East already?

More importantly, what kind of expiration dates can I get on those "Saddam-Israel" contracts?[/b][/quote]
I don't rate them. I just remain aware. I also could not care less if a surprise happens or not.

I put my money on the line in various markets, which is more than most people do. :P

The premise that a cycle progression in middle eastern events may parallel markets cycles and events is secondary to the market action itself. Nevertheless, it is worth observation IMO.

[JerryW]

Wig,

the stock market is not a zero sum game, broker's fees and exchange fees prevent that.
but it's also not a random walk as some people think.

one word describes the correlation between the middle east and the stock market - OIL.

I'm also interested in the cycle technieques your using, I've studied technical analysis but never turned into a good trader, the psychological part is the hardest part of trading.

[Almighty Colin]

Originally posted by wig@Nov 18 2002, 12:15 PM
The premise that a cycle progression in middle eastern events may parallel markets cycles and events is secondary to the market action itself. Nevertheless, it is worth observation IMO.
How would you even begin to determine that? How do you chart middle-eastern events and then determine that an underlying pattern exists and will consistently repeat? Which middle eastern events and dates are part of this cycle you mention and how do you predict the next one?

Why should such patterns exist for something as vague and humanly defined as "events in the middle east"?

or are you saying you are predicting a movement in the market and speculating that the cause of that would be a middle-eastern event. That would still be the same thing though. You would be able to demonstrate that there is a clear pattern to historical events and that it can be used to predict the future.

Witchcraft!

[wig]

Originally posted by JerryW@Nov 18 2002, 01:50 PM
the psychological part is the hardest part of trading.
Hi Jerry,

Yes, this is something that we have discussed many times before at Oprano. I firmly believe that execution is the only thing that will make you a consistent winner.

I do not have the space to explain my cycle theories. I tried briefly to explain it to Colin via email and you can see where that has gone. :D

[wig]

Originally posted by Colin@Nov 18 2002, 01:57 PM
How would you even begin to determine that? How do you chart middle-eastern events and then determine that an underlying pattern exists and will consistently repeat? Which middle eastern events and dates are part of this cycle you mention and how do you predict the next one?

Why should such patterns exist for something as vague and humanly defined as "events in the middle east"?

or are you saying you are predicting a movement in the market and speculating that the cause of that would be a middle-eastern event. That would still be the same thing though. You would be able to demonstrate that there is a clear pattern to historical events and that it can be used to predict the future.

Witchcraft!
Colin,

I believe in cycles. I believe that history repeats itself. I believe that cycles are a dynamic, non-linear phenomenon.

To reiterate from my email to you.... "Here is how a perform my analysis for TIME. I use many numbers that are found in nature or have otherwise proven valuable to life (markets). Here are a most of them.... Fibonacci numbers, Gann numbers, Biblical numbers and the summation of these numbers. Also, the multiples and fractions of these numbers. Basically, what I do is stare at the charts and find patterns of TIME between important turning points. I use my base numbers to extrapolate dates in the future and I look for synergy to determine probable points in the future where psychology may change."

There is no "clear" pattern. There is no secret formula. Cycles do not consistently repeat in the same fashion. If they did, life would be a circle and I view it as more of a spiral.

I have simply come to the realization that the repetition (measured by the numbers I use) is too much of an occurence to be mere coincidence.

Therefore, I make assumptions based on probabilities of cycles repeating. Not on the certainty of a cycle repeating. I look for the convergence of many cycles at the same place in future time.

I also do the same thing with price action. Look for probabilities based on repetition. I then combine the two to look for synergy... Or as Gann would say... "where price and time coincide".

I'm sorry if you think it is witchcraft or if you cannot otherwise understand my methodologies. It works for me and I make money using it. But, as we have discussed, as Serge and I have discussed and as Jerry and I have just discussed, it is execution that is the key.

I did not always make money in the markets and have paid a lot of tuition. My ability to make money in the latter part of my 17 years of trading is mostly a part of my execution and not my perception.

It is still easier to predict markets than it is to make money. :D

[Dianna Vesta]

Originally posted by wig+Nov 18 2002, 02:53 PM--></span><table border='0' align='center' width='95%' cellpadding='3' cellspacing='1'><tr><td>QUOTE (wig @ Nov 18 2002, 02:53 PM)</td></tr><tr><td id='QUOTE'><!--QuoteBegin--Colin@Nov 18 2002, 01:57 PM
How would you even begin to determine that? How do you chart middle-eastern events and then determine that an underlying pattern exists and will consistently repeat? Which middle eastern events and dates are part of this cycle you mention and how do you predict the next one?

Why should such patterns exist for something as vague and humanly defined as "events in the middle east"?

or are you saying you are predicting a movement in the market and speculating that the cause of that would be a middle-eastern event. That would still be the same thing though. You would be able to demonstrate that there is a clear pattern to historical events and that it can be used to predict the future.

Witchcraft!
Colin,

I believe in cycles. I believe that history repeats itself. I believe that cycles are a dynamic, non-linear phenomenon.

To reiterate from my email to you.... "Here is how a perform my analysis for TIME. I use many numbers that are found in nature or have otherwise proven valuable to life (markets). Here are a most of them.... Fibonacci numbers, Gann numbers, Biblical numbers and the summation of these numbers. Also, the multiples and fractions of these numbers. Basically, what I do is stare at the charts and find patterns of TIME between important turning points. I use my base numbers to extrapolate dates in the future and I look for synergy to determine probable points in the future where psychology may change."

There is no "clear" pattern. There is no secret formula. Cycles do not consistently repeat in the same fashion. If they did, life would be a circle and I view it as more of a spiral.

I have simply come to the realization that the repetition (measured by the numbers I use) is too much of an occurence to be mere coincidence.

Therefore, I make assumptions based on probabilities of cycles repeating. Not on the certainty of a cycle repeating. I look for the convergence of many cycles at the same place in future time.

I also do the same thing with price action. Look for probabilities based on repetition. I then combine the two to look for synergy... Or as Gann would say... "where price and time coincide".

I'm sorry if you think it is witchcraft or if you cannot otherwise understand my methodologies. It works for me and I make money using it. But, as we have discussed, as Serge and I have discussed and as Jerry and I have just discussed, it is execution that is the key.

I did not always make money in the markets and have paid a lot of tuition. My ability to make money in the latter part of my 17 years of trading is mostly a part of my execution and not my perception.

It is still easier to predict markets than it is to make money. :D[/b][/quote]
I beleive in this but perhaps a different twist. One one plane it is all spiritual, actually metaphysical. Anyone who has studied the works of Carl Jung know it as synchronicity.

For more info on this:

http://twm.co.nz/ISSS_synchr.html

I've felt a stirring since 1999. I lost sleep, my friends thought I was nuts when I bought a generator, a 250 lb propane tank, wood stove, extra food, etc. I wans't sure if it was Y2K or what but even after Y2K I felt it. I still feel it. 9/11 only made it worse and confirmed my fears. Y2K I wasn't worried about computers but terroist.

I've always watched these things along with astrology.


Ok, I'm a freak!

[voodooman]

Ok, I'm a freak!
-----------------


Here Here!!!

:D

[Almighty Colin]

Originally posted by wig@Nov 18 2002, 02:23 PM


I do not have the space to explain my cycle theories. I tried briefly to explain it to Colin via email and you can see where that has gone. :D
Yes, you do!

Oprano is on excellent servers with lots of hard drive space. Space is NOT confining you!

[Dianna Vesta]

Did you see this?

Leonids Meteor Shower: Nov. 15-20

While last year's Leonids provided stargazers with a big display, this year's shower is expected to be even more spectacular. Viewing should be good from midnight to dawn, but the peak of activity will occur between 5-5:30AM EST on the morning of the 19th. At that time you can expect to see roughly 40 meteors per minute blazing across the sky.

If you don't see it now you won't until 2098- I wonder what that means? Notice the dates.

[Peaches]

Leonids Meteor Shower: Nov. 15-20

I watched them last year from my bedroom deck and WOW! I'll be there again tonight to watch them!! :D

[Dianna Vesta]

Leonids Meteor Shower: Nov. 15-20

While last year's Leonids provided stargazers with a big display, this year's shower is expected to be even more spectacular. Viewing should be good from midnight to dawn, but the peak of activity will occur between 5-5:30AM EST on the morning of the 19th. At that time you can expect to see roughly 40 meteors per minute blazing across the sky.

In case you didn't know.

Funny how this lines up with Wig's dates, huh?

[wig]

Originally posted by Colin@Nov 18 2002, 05:03 PM
Yes, you do!

Oprano is on excellent servers with lots of hard drive space. Space is NOT confining you!
You are correct. Time and desire is confining me.

Not to mention the merry-go-round we are on is quite boring. :zzz:

[slavdogg]

Wig, you predicting a market pull back for Nov-Dec and than a nice pop in January ??


Doesnt it happen like that about 7 out of 10 years ??

Same goes for your july and October predictions, July is ussually the weekest month with low trading valunes and stocks can just sink like shit.

I've fallowed your predictions and i gotta admit i was impressed, but how much of it is regular seasonal stuff. ?

[slavdogg]

today Leonid's Meteor Shower flew by my sky

my dad's name is Leonid

today is also his birthday


I've yet to figure out the meaning to that coinsidence....

[Almighty Colin]

Slav - speaking of coincidences:

How many people in a room before the odds are better than 50% than 2 will share a birthday?

How many people do you have to be in a room with before the odds are better than 50% that someone shares YOUR birthday?

Anyone may play. :-)

[Winetalk.com]

Originally posted by Colin@Nov 18 2002, 06:42 PM
Slav - speaking of coincidences:

How many people in a room before the odds are better than 50% than 2 will share a birthday?

How many people do you have to be in a room with before the odds are better than 50% that someone shares YOUR birthday?

Anyone may play. :-)
Colin,
I think I'll ask Jim Barnett to answer this one
;-)))

[slavdogg]

Originally posted by Colin@Nov 18 2002, 06:42 PM
How many people in a room before the odds are better than 50% than 2 will share a birthday?




547 ??


how many days in a year are there ??



Last edited by slavdogg at Nov 18 2002, 07:44 PM

[wig]

Slav,

Here are the major turning points based on extreme highs / lows since 1990.

1990 - July high and Oct low
1991 - Mar high and Aug low
1992 - May high and Oct low
1993 - grinded higher all year
1994 - Jan high and april low
1995 - moved higher whole year
1996 - May high and July low
1997 - Feb high, April low, July high and Oct low
1998 - July high and Sept low
1999 - Aug high and Oct low
2000 - Jan high, March low, April high, Sept low and Oct low
2001 - March low, May high and Sept low
2002 - March high, July low and Oct low

As one can see, your observation about these months has some validity as turning points. However, 1990, 1997 and 1998 held July highs while 1996 and 2002 held July lows. October held lows in 90, 92, 97, 99, 00 and 02. No distinct highs were registered in October in the last 12 years.

Of course, this is in the Dow and other equity markets may be different. It may also be different if you looked at closing highs / lows.

I don't know if I can atribute any of this to regular seasonal trends and be consistent. Selling (or buying) in advance of some of these months would have got it shoved straight up ones ass.

What I do know is this. If I look back at all the major turning points in the past and then extrapolate into the future using the numbers I have discussed, one thing is clear.... you either have a synergy at a certain date in the future or you do not.

In other words. If 144 days from this high and 7 years from this low and 30 months from this high and 14 weeks from this low and 84 weeks from this low and 60 years from that low, etc., etc. all happen to point to Sept - Oct 2003 you can rest assured there is a high probability of psychology changing in this date range.

This in essence is what I do. I extrapolate certain numbers into the future and look for synergy.

Of course, this is only half of the puzzle. The other half consists of price. Here I do similar analysis using Elliott Wave and Drummond geometry.

Then, when I find areas where price and time converge, I feel like I have the probabilities necessary to take a position.

And, here's the trick. It is fairly easy to forecast time in advance, while price is usually best forecast using the most recent action. It is also necessary to use this price action to determine if a cycle point is going to be a high or low. Sometimes, what I originally think will be a high ends up being a low. Price action and structure is always the determining factor.

In other words, each day a new piece of the puzzle is turned over which either is confirming or negating a certain scenario. As a result, a trader must be very objective so he can allow the market to "speak" to him.

This is where I think fundamentals breakdown. Fundamentals are the study of the "cause" of events while technical analysis is the study of the events themselves. If a economist believes that if Greenspan cuts rates the market will go up and then Greenspan cuts rates and the market drops, the economist does not know where he is wrong. The market may continue to go down while the reason he bought still suggests up.

In TA, something would have been visibly changed forcing the trader to adjust.

I have obviously simplified much of this, but it would really take up a lot of time to try and detail it all. Plus, so much of it is in my head and I usually cannot access it all at once. :)

[Monk]

183

[Winetalk.com]

Originally posted by Monk@Nov 18 2002, 07:33 PM
183
wrong!!!!!!!!!!!!

[Monk]

damn serge, you would have to post before I could correct myself. I WAY oversimplified that one.

Gimme a minute.

[slavdogg]

wig, i was looking though my memory of closing highs / lows.

what are you looking at ??

[Nickatilynx]

Shall I ruin it..or just say ....................Richard von Mises :moon:

[wig]

Originally posted by slavdogg@Nov 18 2002, 07:50 PM
wig, i was looking though my memory of closing highs / lows.

what are you looking at ??
I am looking at extremes. The highest high and lowest lows in relation to the most prominent swings (highs / lows) in each year.

[Monk]

OK, I don't have a calculator but the first person's birthday could be anyone of 365 days in the year (ignoring leapyear). The second person could have any of 364 days as his birthday without being the same as the first guys (364/365). The third guy could have any of 363 days as his birthday without being the same as EITHER of the first 2 guys (363/365)
So, you would multiply these fractions until the result was less than 50% (because this calculates the chances that the any 2 birthdays are NOT the same).

To figure out how many people it would take before the chances are >50% that someone matches YOUR birthday, you would do the same thing, except you would keep using 364/365.

Yes?

[Nickatilynx]

A lot of big earning webmasters have a lot of time on their hands ;)

Don't we? :agrin: