Pickem Picksheet Is Live For Week 11!

[Mutt]

Ok, it's baaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaack! Week 11 of the CandidCam Pickem Challenge!

http://www.opranoplus.com/pickem

Can Monk hang onto the lead? Can Bobinator gather himself from his slump? Can a woman take back the lead? Will it be Tonda or KarenFold?

Tune in this weekend for another action packed edition of Pickem!!!:bdance:

[Edd]

Will Edd make another set of staggeringly inaccurate picks again this week, even further distancing himself from any hopes of winning a PS2?

Colin, what are the odds that I will continue to suck? :awinky:

[T-Rav]

I'm feeling lucky...

[cj]

done!

even edd beat me last week so i'm hoping for a good week!

[ulfie]

Originally posted by Edd@Nov 14 2002, 12:11 PM
what are the odds that I will continue to suck? :awinky:
I would say there's about a 75% chance. :nyanya:

[Edd]

Thanks Ulfie! good to know I can always count on you! :huh: :bdance:

[dantheman]

last week I went 8-4 ( I think) doing random, today I tweaked it a little :rokk:

[ulfie]

Dan, you can't do your picks on Thursday. You have to wait until Sunday to see the injury reports, field conditions, and final point spreads. Then you need to light some candles and pray to the football gods for a good week. It works for me. :D

[cj]

Dan, you can't do your picks on Thursday
------

HAHHAHAHAHHAHAA


crap, a guess is still a guess even on sunday!!!!!

[ulfie]

cj, lucky guessers come and go, the steady players win the game. :P

[Billy]

OK.. I am going to wait another day and study a little more, last week I went 8-4-1 I think and I know I can do better !!

Ulfie.. my pick of the week is Titans will win by 14 :cdance:

[ulfie]

Originally posted by Billy@Nov 15 2002, 12:24 AM
OK.. I am going to wait another day and study a little more, last week I went 8-4-1 I think and I know I can do better !!

Ulfie.. my pick of the week is Titans will win by 14 :cdance:
Living in fantasyland is pretty cool!! :nyanya:

[cj]

Originally posted by ulfie@Nov 15 2002, 12:18 AM
cj, lucky guessers come and go, the steady players win the game. :P
what about consistant lucky guesses ;-)))


don't get too cocky, your not that far ahead!

[Almighty Colin]

Originally posted by Edd@Nov 14 2002, 12:11 PM
Will Edd make another set of staggeringly inaccurate picks again this week, even further distancing himself from any hopes of winning a PS2?

Colin, what are the odds that I will continue to suck? :awinky:
Edd,

See http://www.opranoplus.com/askcolin/archives_002.shtml

Define suck?

[Almighty Colin]

Originally posted by Edd@Nov 14 2002, 12:11 PM
Will Edd make another set of staggeringly inaccurate picks again this week, even further distancing himself from any hopes of winning a PS2?

Colin, what are the odds that I will continue to suck? :awinky:
Odds of picking x right out of 16 games.

*These were wrong. See below**

If you're doing bad, I suggest you make your picks and then reverse them all.



Last edited by Colin at Nov 17 2002, 05:43 AM

[cj]

colin, that was an awesome explanation ;-)

spare 5 minutes and read the mathmatical explanation for why I TOTALLY ROCK AT FOOTBALL PICKEM AND I'VE NEVER WATCHED A GAME!!!!


:cdance: :cdance: :cdance: :cdance: :cdance: :cdance:

[Almighty Colin]

CJ,

Do you study the team past results in any way or just guess?

[cj]

i'm using a combination of reading the spread, knowing if the underdog had a bad week prior, and guessing. all of this based on the football talk on oprano ;-)

[Almighty Colin]

Speaking of betting. I bet if you take this year's top 10 they will have a much lower winning percentage next year than this year. Regression to the mean.

Vick will love this next example.

Vick won this year but is in something like 75th place this year.

On a positive point, the bottom quarter will do better next year on average. Try again.

[Billy]

Heck CJ... all I do is look at the pretty helmets and pick the team that has the best one !

Remember the old saying KISS

[Opti]

Originally posted by Colin@Nov 16 2002, 01:33 AM
If you're doing that bad, I suggest you make your picks and then reverse them all.
I tried that! :grrr:

I've got so many wrong over so many weeks my goal now is to pick the most losers!

81 so far... Chasing Sharpie on 85 :P

[Almighty Colin]

Originally posted by Billy@Nov 15 2002, 09:06 AM
Heck CJ... all I do is look at the pretty helmets and pick the team that has the best one !

Remember the old saying KISS
Guess you always pick against the Browns.

Who do you think has the best?

[Billy]

Thats a tuff question...
Green Bay has pretty colors : )
As do the Bills..

BUT my favorite is Tampa Bay : )
Just don't tell Mike I said that :bwave:

[cj]

Vick won this year but is in something like 75th place this year.
----

and opti was doing well last time too and this time SUCKS!!!

i figured according to pascal its my turn to get at least top 20

:P

[Edd]

Originally posted by Colin+Nov 15 2002, 08:25 AM--></span><table border='0' align='center' width='95%' cellpadding='3' cellspacing='1'><tr><td>QUOTE (Colin @ Nov 15 2002, 08:25 AM)</td></tr><tr><td id='QUOTE'><!--QuoteBegin--Edd@Nov 14 2002, 12:11 PM
Will Edd make another set of staggeringly inaccurate picks again this week, even further distancing himself from any hopes of winning a PS2?

Colin, what are the odds that I will continue to suck? :awinky:
Edd,

See http://www.opranoplus.com/askcolin/archives_002.shtml

Define suck?[/b][/quote]
YES! I just KNEW I could get a straight answer from my man Colin! Thanks Bro! :awinky:

At least know I know WHY I suck! :P

See Colin, I had been relying on the laws of Chaos to get my win - I've been picking a team from the roster at random, closing my eyes, and pressing the Random button a random number of times then opening my eyes. If the team I picked was selected I stopped, if not, I'd repeat the process until it was. I thought that was a wonderfully chaotic formula. But I suck. No PS2 for Edd.... YET! <_<

[cj]

edd, that system is almost as cool as mine!!!
and we seem to be doing about the same so far ...

random has 22% chance or something ... combine that with the fact that most of the regulars have sucked or ended up in the middle because the season seems to have been 'irregular'

colin, thanks for making math cool again! (I used math class to write letters to girlfriends - i loath trying to comphrehend complex maths, i think i might stay interested if you were teaching a class)

;-)

[voodooman]

After this is all over, I want to find out just how much time some of the
people in the top spend each week analyzing, and trying to come up with
the right pics, Handicapping if you will.
:)

[Cal]

I already have a PS2 so if somehow I make a miraculous landslide victory you can have it Edd.

But I might as well have picked randomly, for all my knowledge of most of the teams. I haven't been watching Sportscenter as much as I should lately.

<_<

C.

[Mutt]

i don't spend any time on making my picks. i do watch a lot of sports news and listen to sports radio. Some of it i use to make my picks.

One week i spent about an hour or more going to the various sports pick sites where supposed experts give their picks, i looked for consensus picks, turned out to be one of my worst weeks.

very few people in the world can make their living betting sports. But it does make watching sports more fun, i can make a 1,000 stake last a long time. I used to bet by phone with Bowmans.com before the Net.

NFL football is the worst sport to bet. Baseball seems to be the easiest. College basketball and football also easier. The oddsmakers don't make many mistakes when setting lines on NFL games. They do make mistakes on other sports.

[Almighty Colin]

I fucked up. I laid off the pen and paper this time and wrote a program.

Correction to odds (still assuming random)

0 1 in 65573
1 1 in 4098
2 1 in 564
3 1 in 117
4 2.8%
5 6.7%
6 12.2%
7 17.4%
8 19.6%
9 17.4%
10 12.2%
11 6.7%
12 2.8%
13 1 in 117
14 1 in 564
15 1 in 4098
16 1 in 65573



Last edited by Colin at Nov 17 2002, 05:44 AM

[Mutt]

i wonder how much an insurance company would charge for a policy on a contest that had say a 100,000 dollar prize for going 16-0.

i know there are companies that do this kind of contest insurance, i did a search and could only find a company that insures those hole in one contests you see at golf tournaments.

[Mike AI]

2 words.


SAIJNTS SUCK!

:moon: for the coaches and refs!!

[Lisa]

Err...umm...big big weekend...just got my picks in and realised i'm at least 7 games too late! Mutt, I hope you random'd me. :)

[Mutt]

hi Lisa

I got your picks :bjump:

[Lisa]

Thanks muchly. :inlove:

[Almighty Colin]

Originally posted by Mutt@Nov 17 2002, 01:06 PM
i wonder how much an insurance company would charge for a policy on a contest that had say a 100,000 dollar prize for going 16-0.

i know there are companies that do this kind of contest insurance, i did a search and could only find a company that insures those hole in one contests you see at golf tournaments.
Interesting question. It would depend on how many people were going to play.

If random and 220 people play (about the same as played this week at Oprano), it should happen about once every 20 seasons. I don't know how they would convert that into a premium. If the insurance company assumes certain individuals are better than 50/50 due to skill then they would assess the odds as even higher.



Last edited by Colin at Nov 18 2002, 05:23 AM

[JerryW]

Originally posted by Mutt@Nov 17 2002, 01:06 PM
i wonder how much an insurance company would charge for a policy on a contest that had say a 100,000 dollar prize for going 16-0.

i know there are companies that do this kind of contest insurance, i did a search and could only find a company that insures those hole in one contests you see at golf tournaments.
I found this site (http://www.oddsonpromotions.com/) that offers to set up contests with large prizes and insures against the winners. But I don't know the cost.

[Mutt]

thanks Jerry. I'm going to read up on this. I don't know how the insurance company who insures one of these contests with huge prizes can protect itself from some kind of fraud. Seems like it would be too easy to rig a contest online.

Actually though the ripoffs in contests are usually that the big prize is never won by anybody. I think McDonald's got caught running a bogus contest. Cybererotica ran a million dollar contest that seemed to run for a year and i never saw a winner, i think the odds were stacked against anybody winning the grand prize.

[Peaches]

I think McDonald's got caught running a bogus contest.

No, someone got caught ripping off McDonald's contests - someone that worked for the company that ran the contest. He lived here in Atlanta :D

[sleuth]

:angry: I think I blew my wad last week,,, the best picks I ever had

[sleuth]

Security that ran the McDonalds contest got greedy. The head of securety that ran the promotions got caught.... didn't think their process right

[sleuth]

There are legal requirments to promote a contest and is regulated by the gov. There are componies to over see the placement of the winning prizes throughout the us. I know thid for a fact, I have place the winners in certain locations

[sleuth]

iF YOU ARE LOOKING TO PROMOTE A CONTEST YOU CAN GET IN TOUCH WITH MY COMPANY, THE BEST REGULATIONS AND GOVERNMENT RULES WILL BE ENFORCED ACCORDING TO ALL THE FTC RULES WITHIN THE US :rokk: