Stock Market Rally?

[Mike AI]

Is it time to put money back into market? 5 weeks of possitive growth. Interest rates at all time low.

I have been on the sideliness for awhile, and just like picking the top, picking the bottom is hard. Is it time to start re-investing again?

[MattK]

I don't think it's time to buy yet. This rally is based on
companies beating already lowered earnings expectations,
plus a lot of people still think the fed can help the economy by
lowering interest rates.

prudentbear.com (http://www.prudentbear.com) is a good site
for articles that go against the perma-bulls.

[cameraman]

I don't know what the good news has been that makes the stock market go up.

People are saying Whoopee, they beat the earnings estimate. This is after the bar has been lowered several times.

Yet the PE of the S&P 500 is over 48. This is way over valued.

[Almighty Colin]

Cameraman, marketwatch.com has the SP500 PE at 34.06 (still high)

Where did you the 48 figure?



Last edited by Colin at Nov 5 2002, 09:33 AM

[wig]

Too bad none of the factors listed have any consistent correlation to market action. :yowsa:

[Almighty Colin]

I wouldn't expect to find correlation.

There is hardly any historical context for a 30+ PE.

The S&P briefly went over 30 for 2 months in 1929. The next time was 1997.

Some would say that means we're in the midst of the biggest bubble in stock market history.

Others would say that people now give a higher valuation to companies relative to earnings.

Will be interesting.

[slavdogg]

http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=stor...satoday/4591520 (http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story2&ncid=716&e=5&u=/usatoday/20021105/bs_usatoday/4591520)

[Winetalk.com]

Originally posted by wig@Nov 5 2002, 11:46 AM
Too bad none of the factors listed have any consistent correlation to market action. :yowsa:
MikeAI,
where have you been when it was 7500 on the Dow?
;_))

ask where wig and me were
;_))

[Mike AI]

Thanks for the help guys!!!

:moon:

[cameraman]

Colin--At close of business Tuesday, Nov 5th S&P 500 PE is 49.53 !!

S&P 500 = 915.39
S&P 500 Earnings as of June 2002 was $18.48 per share

This number is the core earnings number from Standard & Poor's Earnings Page (http://www.spglobal.com/earnings.html)


Read this article (http://www.businessweek.com/bwdaily/dnflash/oct2002/nf20021024_6328.htm) in Business Week and you will see how American companies are still trying to fool the investor with inflated earnings.

I don't undertand how anyone could invest in something when you can't believe the numbers.